Ingo Bethke
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View article: Implementation and validation of a supermodeling framework into Community Earth System Model version 2.1.5
Implementation and validation of a supermodeling framework into Community Earth System Model version 2.1.5 Open
Here we present a research framework for the first atmosphere-connected supermodel using state-of-the-art atmospheric models. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) versions 5 and 6 exchange information interactively while running, a process…
View article: External radiative forcing partly explains the Europe winter cooling in 1998-2012
External radiative forcing partly explains the Europe winter cooling in 1998-2012 Open
The Eurasia continent underwent significant winter cooling from 1998 to 2012, occurring within the context of global warming. This phenomenon has primarily been linked to internal variability, as previous research indicates; however, discu…
View article: Robust Estimates of Earth System Predictability of the 1st kind using the CESM2 Multiyear Prediction System (CESM2-MP)
Robust Estimates of Earth System Predictability of the 1st kind using the CESM2 Multiyear Prediction System (CESM2-MP) Open
Here we present a new seasonal-to-multiyear Earth prediction system (CESM2-MP) based on the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). A 20-member ensemble which assimilates oceanic temperature and salinity anomalies provides the init…
View article: Implementation and validation of a supermodelling framework into CESM version 2.1.5
Implementation and validation of a supermodelling framework into CESM version 2.1.5 Open
Here we present a framework for the first atmosphere-connected supermodel using state-of-the-art atmospheric models. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) versions 5 and 6 exchange information interactively while running, a process known as…
View article: Upstream influence of midlatitude jet stream biases in boreal summer
Upstream influence of midlatitude jet stream biases in boreal summer Open
Climate models exhibit biases in the mean state and in variability across different regions of the Earth. For example, atmosphere‐only models have a poleward bias in summertime jet streams across the Northern Hemisphere (NH). This can resu…
View article: Decadal Prediction Centers Prepare for a Major Volcanic Eruption
Decadal Prediction Centers Prepare for a Major Volcanic Eruption Open
The World Meteorological Organization’s Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction issues operational forecasts annually as guidance for regional climate centers, climate outlook forums, and national meteorological and hydrologic…
View article: Intercomparison of initialization methods for seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions with the NorCPM
Intercomparison of initialization methods for seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions with the NorCPM Open
Initialization is essential for accurate seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) climate predictions. The initialization schemes used differ on the component initialized, the Data Assimilation method, or the technique. We compare five popular schemes wi…
View article:  A Multi-year Climate Prediction System Based on CESM2
 A Multi-year Climate Prediction System Based on CESM2 Open
Here we present a new seasonal-to-multiyear earth system prediction system which is based on the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) in 1° horizontal resolution. A 20- member ensemble of temperature and salinity anomaly ass…
View article: Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre
Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Open
Due to large northward heat transport, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strongly affects the climate of various regions. Its internal variability has been shown to be predictable decades ahead within climate models, p…
View article: Intercomparison of initialization methods for Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Predictions with the NorCPM
Intercomparison of initialization methods for Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Predictions with the NorCPM Open
Initialization is essential for accurate seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) climate predictions. The initialization schemes used differ on the component initialized, the Data Assimilation (DA) method, or the technique. We compare five popular schem…
View article: Resolution sensitivity of tropical turbulent fluxes and precipitation in NorESM models
Resolution sensitivity of tropical turbulent fluxes and precipitation in NorESM models Open
We evaluated the ¼° model NorESM1.3 in which the well-known “double-ITCZ problem” in the Pacific is mitigated. However, excessive precipitation is produced in the northern branch of the ITCZ. …
View article: Riverine impact on future projections of marine primary production and carbon uptake
Riverine impact on future projections of marine primary production and carbon uptake Open
Riverine transport of nutrients and carbon from inland waters to the coastal and finally the open ocean alters marine primary production (PP) and carbon (C) uptake regionally and globally. So far, this process has not been fully represente…
View article: Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)
Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP) Open
Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operation…
View article: Impact of initialization methods on the predictive skill in NorCPM: an Arctic–Atlantic case study
Impact of initialization methods on the predictive skill in NorCPM: an Arctic–Atlantic case study Open
The skilful prediction of climatic conditions on a forecast horizon of months to decades into the future remains a main scientific challenge of large societal benefit. Here we assess the hindcast skill of the Norwegian Climate Prediction M…
View article: WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: A Prediction for 2021–25
WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: A Prediction for 2021–25 Open
As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential to inform current a…
View article: Skillful Prediction of Barents Sea Phytoplankton Concentration
Skillful Prediction of Barents Sea Phytoplankton Concentration Open
<p>The predictability of phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is explored in the CMIP6 decadal prediction runs with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM1), together with satellite data and<em> in situ</em>…
View article: Towards operational climate prediction: ENSO-related variability as simulated in a set of state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems
Towards operational climate prediction: ENSO-related variability as simulated in a set of state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems Open
<p>In the last decade, high demands from stakeholders and policymakers have driven unprecedented research efforts directed to improve climate predictability. Nevertheless, attempts to get operational climate predictions on seasonal t…
View article: Comment on bg-2021-293
Comment on bg-2021-293 Open
Abstract. Riverine transport of nutrients and carbon from inland waters to the coastal and finally the open ocean alters marine primary production (PP) and carbon (C) uptake regionally and globally. So far, this process has not been fully …
View article: Comment on bg-2021-293
Comment on bg-2021-293 Open
Abstract. Riverine transport of nutrients and carbon from inland waters to the coastal and finally the open ocean alters marine primary production (PP) and carbon (C) uptake regionally and globally. So far, this process has not been fully …
View article: Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and Their Predictive Potential along the Atlantic Water Pathway
Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and Their Predictive Potential along the Atlantic Water Pathway Open
We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic seas in the period 1970–2005. We focus on the regio…
View article: NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP
NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP Open
The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 (NorCPM1) is a new research tool for performing climate reanalyses and seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. It combines the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1) – which featu…
View article: Riverine impact on future projections of marine primary production and carbon uptake
Riverine impact on future projections of marine primary production and carbon uptake Open
Riverine transport of nutrients and carbon from inland waters to the coastal and finally the open ocean alters marine primary production (PP) and carbon (C) uptake, not only regionally but also globally. So far, this contribution is repres…
View article: Impact of Initialization Methods on the Predictive skill in NorCPM - An Arctic-Atlantic Case Study
Impact of Initialization Methods on the Predictive skill in NorCPM - An Arctic-Atlantic Case Study Open
The skilful prediction of climatic conditions on a forecast horizon of months to decades into the future remains a main scientific challenge of large societal benefit. Here we assess the hindcast skill of the Norwegian Climate Prediction M…
View article: Reply on AC2
Reply on AC2 Open
Abstract. The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 (NorCPM1) is a new research tool for performing climate reanalyses and seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. It combines the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1) â…
View article: Reply on RC3
Reply on RC3 Open
Abstract. The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 (NorCPM1) is a new research tool for performing climate reanalyses and seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. It combines the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1) â…
View article: Comment on gmd-2021-91
Comment on gmd-2021-91 Open
Abstract. The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 (NorCPM1) is a new research tool for performing climate reanalyses and seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. It combines the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1) â…
View article: Reply on RC1
Reply on RC1 Open
Abstract. The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 (NorCPM1) is a new research tool for performing climate reanalyses and seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. It combines the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1) â…
View article: Comment on gmd-2021-91
Comment on gmd-2021-91 Open
Abstract. The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 (NorCPM1) is a new research tool for performing climate reanalyses and seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. It combines the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1) â…