Paul J. Valdes
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View article: An emulator-based modelling framework for studying astronomical controls on ocean anoxia with an application to the Devonian
An emulator-based modelling framework for studying astronomical controls on ocean anoxia with an application to the Devonian Open
We present a modelling framework to study the response of continental flux dynamics and ocean anoxia to astronomical forcing. The GEOCLIM model is coupled with a Gaussian Process-based climate emulator, designed to efficiently capture the …
View article: Implementation of water tracers in the Met Office Unified Model
Implementation of water tracers in the Met Office Unified Model Open
There is an increasing need to understand how water is cycled and transported within the atmosphere, to aid water management. Here, atmospheric water tracers are added to the Met Office Unified Model (UM) to allow tracking of water within …
View article: A Global Speleothem‐Based Assessment of Spontaneous Dansgaard–Oeschger Type Oscillations in Two Isotope‐Enabled General Circulation Models
A Global Speleothem‐Based Assessment of Spontaneous Dansgaard–Oeschger Type Oscillations in Two Isotope‐Enabled General Circulation Models Open
Several general circulation models have now demonstrated the ability to simulate spontaneous millennial‐scale oscillations that resemble Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events. It is often unclear how representative of DO events these simulations …
View article: The role of the North American continent in strengthening the Asian summer monsoon
The role of the North American continent in strengthening the Asian summer monsoon Open
Most studies on modern Asian monsoon formation focus on mechanisms arising within the Afro-Eurasian continent, while fewer compare the effects from remote continents. Here, we explore this question using a coupled climate model. We show th…
View article: Marine burial of terrestrial organic carbon modulates past warm climates
Marine burial of terrestrial organic carbon modulates past warm climates Open
The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), ~56 million years ago, was characterised by large-scale carbon release (~3,000-10,000 petagrams of carbon) and transient global warming (4-6°C over 10,000 years). Erosion and subsequent burial …
View article: STEM career interest development and persistence: what parents do, say, and should say
STEM career interest development and persistence: what parents do, say, and should say Open
Parent–child communication is an essential part of developing and sustaining career interests. Parents’ involvement in the process of career interest development and persistence of women in STEM is critical to understand to marshal support…
View article: Multi-model assessment of the deglacial climatic evolution at high southern latitudes
Multi-model assessment of the deglacial climatic evolution at high southern latitudes Open
The Quaternary climate is characterized by glacial–interglacial cycles, with the most recent transition from the last glacial maximum to the present interglacial (the last deglaciation) occurring between ∼ 21 and 9 ka. While the deglacial …
View article: Atmospheric and Oceanic Pathways Drive Separate Modes of Southern Hemisphere Climate in Simulations of Spontaneous Dansgaard-Oeschger-Type Oscillations
Atmospheric and Oceanic Pathways Drive Separate Modes of Southern Hemisphere Climate in Simulations of Spontaneous Dansgaard-Oeschger-Type Oscillations Open
Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events are a dominant mode of millennial-scale climate variability during the last glacial period. While the influence of DO events is most pronounced in the North Atlantic region, global-scale impacts have been det…
View article: Climate drivers and palaeobiogeography of lagerpetids and early pterosaurs
Climate drivers and palaeobiogeography of lagerpetids and early pterosaurs Open
The origin of pterosaurs, the first vertebrates to achieve powered flight, is poorly understood, owing to the temporal and morphological gaps that separate them from their closest non-flying relatives, the lagerpetids. Although both groups…
View article: An Emulator-Based Modelling Framework for Studying Astronomical Controls on Ocean Anoxia with an Application on the Devonian
An Emulator-Based Modelling Framework for Studying Astronomical Controls on Ocean Anoxia with an Application on the Devonian Open
We present a modelling framework to study the response of continental flux dynamics and ocean anoxia to astronomical forcing. The GEOCLIM model is coupled with a Gaussian Process-based climate emulator, designed to efficiently capture the …
View article: Back to an ice-free future: Early Cretaceous seasonal cycles of sea surface temperature and glacier ice
Back to an ice-free future: Early Cretaceous seasonal cycles of sea surface temperature and glacier ice Open
Global ice losses will likely continue with ongoing climate warming, culminating in an almost ice-free planet analogous to that which persisted throughout much of the Cretaceous. Despite extensive research, Early Cretaceous cryosphere resp…
View article: The structure of the end-Cretaceous dinosaur fossil record in North America
The structure of the end-Cretaceous dinosaur fossil record in North America Open
Whether non-avian dinosaurs were in decline prior to their extinction 66 million years ago remains a contentious topic. This uncertainty arises from spatiotemporal sampling inconsistency and data absence, which cause challenges in distingu…
View article: Impact of Model Tuning on Simulated Mid‐Pliocene Warming
Impact of Model Tuning on Simulated Mid‐Pliocene Warming Open
A tuned version of HadCM3 (HadCM3t) is used to simulate the climate of the mid‐Pliocene warm period (mPWP) and is compared with the original untuned version of HadCM3 (HadCM3u). After the tuning, HadCM3t performs as well as HadCM3u in simu…
View article: Evaluating Dansgaard–Oeschger-like Oscillations in Climate Models: A Model-Data Comparison of MIS3 Variability
Evaluating Dansgaard–Oeschger-like Oscillations in Climate Models: A Model-Data Comparison of MIS3 Variability Open
A model-data comparison is an effective method for evaluating both proxy-based climate reconstructions and simulated model outputs. The MIS3 period is marked by a wide range of proxy records that indicate millennial-scale climate variabili…
View article: The role of the North American continent in strengthening the Asian monsoon
The role of the North American continent in strengthening the Asian monsoon Open
Most studies on the formation of the modern Asian monsoon focus on mechanisms arising on the Afro-Eurasian continent. While few compare the effects of other remote continents. Using a fully coupled general circulation model, this study dec…
View article: An Assessment of Simulated Oxygen Isotope Changes During Spontaneous Dansgaard-Oeschger Type Oscillations in General Circulation Models
An Assessment of Simulated Oxygen Isotope Changes During Spontaneous Dansgaard-Oeschger Type Oscillations in General Circulation Models Open
Several general circulation models have now demonstrated the ability to simulate spontaneous millennial-scale oscillations that resemble Dansgaard—Oeschger (DO) events. It is often unclear how representative these simulations are and…
View article: Patterns of changing surface climate variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to present in transient model simulations
Patterns of changing surface climate variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to present in transient model simulations Open
As of 2023, global mean temperature has risen by about 1.45±0.12 °C with respect to the 1850–1900 pre-industrial (PI) baseline according to the World Meteorological Organization. This rise constitutes the first period of substantial global…
View article: Atmospheric and Oceanic Pathways Drive Separate Modes of Southern Hemisphere Climate in Simulations of Spontaneous Dansgaard‐Oeschger‐Type Oscillations
Atmospheric and Oceanic Pathways Drive Separate Modes of Southern Hemisphere Climate in Simulations of Spontaneous Dansgaard‐Oeschger‐Type Oscillations Open
Dansgaard‐Oeschger (DO) events are a dominant mode of millennial‐scale climate variability during the last glacial period with most pronounced impacts in the North Atlantic region. In Antarctica, they manifest primarily as a muted and phas…
View article: Implementation of Water Tracers in the Met Office Unified Model
Implementation of Water Tracers in the Met Office Unified Model Open
There is an increasing need to understand how water is cycled and transported within the atmosphere to aid water management. Here, atmospheric water tracers are added to the Met Office Unified Model (UM) to allow tracking of water within t…
View article: Evaluating migration hypotheses for the extinct <i>Glyptotherium</i> using ecological niche modeling
Evaluating migration hypotheses for the extinct <i>Glyptotherium</i> using ecological niche modeling Open
The formation of the Isthmus of Panama allowed for migrations between the once separated continents of North and South America. This led to one of the greatest documented interchanges of biota in Earth history, wherein an array of species …
View article: Diagnosing the controls on desert dust emissions through the Phanerozoic
Diagnosing the controls on desert dust emissions through the Phanerozoic Open
Desert dust is a key component of the climate system, as it influences Earth's radiative balance and biogeochemical cycles. It is also influenced by multiple aspects of the climate system, such as surface winds, vegetation cover, and surfa…
View article: Contrasting the Penultimate Glacial Maximum and the Last Glacial Maximum (140 and 21 ka) using coupled climate–ice sheet modelling
Contrasting the Penultimate Glacial Maximum and the Last Glacial Maximum (140 and 21 ka) using coupled climate–ice sheet modelling Open
The configuration of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the Penultimate Glacial Maximum differed to the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the reasons for this are not yet fully understood. These differences likely contributed to the va…
View article: An integrative framework reveals widespread gene flow during the early radiation of oaks and relatives in Quercoideae (Fagaceae)
An integrative framework reveals widespread gene flow during the early radiation of oaks and relatives in Quercoideae (Fagaceae) Open
Although the frequency of ancient hybridization across the Tree of Life is greater than previously thought, little work has been devoted to uncovering the extent, timeline, and geographic and ecological context of ancient hybridization. Us…
View article: Mega El Niño instigated the end-Permian mass extinction
Mega El Niño instigated the end-Permian mass extinction Open
The ultimate driver of the end-Permian mass extinction is a topic of much debate. Here, we used a multiproxy and paleoclimate modeling approach to establish a unifying theory elucidating the heightened susceptibility of the Pangean world t…