Jan S. Fuglestvedt
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View article: Overshoot: A Conceptual Review of Exceeding and Returning to Global Warming of 1.5°C
Overshoot: A Conceptual Review of Exceeding and Returning to Global Warming of 1.5°C Open
Limited progress with mitigation makes it almost inevitable that global warming of 1.5°C will be exceeded. This realization confronts Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) with a choice either to sta…
View article: 2023 temperatures reflect steady global warming and internal sea surface temperature variability
2023 temperatures reflect steady global warming and internal sea surface temperature variability Open
2023 was the warmest year on record, influenced by multiple warm ocean basins. This has prompted speculation of an acceleration in surface warming, or a stronger than expected influence from loss of aerosol induced cooling. Here we use a r…
View article: Advancing understanding on aviation's non-CO2 climate effects through combination of numerical modelling and observations: ACACIA
Advancing understanding on aviation's non-CO2 climate effects through combination of numerical modelling and observations: ACACIA Open
Non-CO2 emissions contribute to climate effects from aviation in the same order of magnitude as carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, the non-CO2 effects, comprising e.g., ozone and methane induced from NOx emissions, together with cont…
View article: Future global temperature impact of global aviation in ICAO scenarios
Future global temperature impact of global aviation in ICAO scenarios Open
We model the global temperature change due to global aviation based on the recently developed International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Long Term Aspirational Goal (LTAG) emissions scenarios. ICAO has produced four different “…
View article: Global warming rates and surface temperature patterns through 2023: A Green’s function based investigation
Global warming rates and surface temperature patterns through 2023: A Green’s function based investigation Open
The rate of global surface warming has seemingly been steady since the 1970s. Any progress towards halting climate change will be heralded by a slowdown in the warming rate, but tracking it on sub-decadal timescales is challenging because …
View article: Annex I: Glossary
Annex I: Glossary Open
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View article: A “greenhouse gas balance” for aviation in line with the Paris Agreement
A “greenhouse gas balance” for aviation in line with the Paris Agreement Open
The effects of aviation on climate pose unique policy challenges. A large fraction of the CO 2 emissions (65%) is international and not (explicitly) included in the Paris Agreement. The interpretation of Article 4.1 on achieving a “balance…
View article: The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures Open
While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science reports usually assess a handful of future scenarios, the Working Group III contribution on climate mitigation to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6 WGIII) as…
View article: Nicholls et al 2022 Emulator Changes
Nicholls et al 2022 Emulator Changes Open
Repository reproducing plots and processing used in Nicholls et al 2022 (https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099788). For questions and comments, please contact Zebedee Nicholls ([email protected]). For full details, p…
View article: Nicholls et al 2022 Emulator Changes
Nicholls et al 2022 Emulator Changes Open
Repository reproducing plots and processing used in Nicholls et al 2022 (https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099788). For questions and comments, please contact Zebedee Nicholls ([email protected]). For full details, p…
View article: Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled
Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled Open
The IPCC's scientific assessment of the timing of net‐zero emissions and 2030 emission reduction targets consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C rests on large scenario databases. Updates to this assessment, such as between the IP…
View article: Changes in IPCC scenario assessment emulators between SR1.5 and AR6 unravelled
Changes in IPCC scenario assessment emulators between SR1.5 and AR6 unravelled Open
The IPCC’s scientific assessment of the timing of net-zero emissions and 2030 emission reduction targets consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C or 2C rests on large scenario databases. Updates to this assessment, such as between the IPCC…
View article: Comment on egusphere-2022-471
Comment on egusphere-2022-471 Open
Abstract. While the IPCC’s physical science report usually assesses a handful of future scenarios, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Working Group III report (AR6 WGIII) on climate mitigation assesses hundreds to thousands of future emissions scen…
View article: Comment on egusphere-2022-471
Comment on egusphere-2022-471 Open
Abstract. While the IPCC’s physical science report usually assesses a handful of future scenarios, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Working Group III report (AR6 WGIII) on climate mitigation assesses hundreds to thousands of future emissions scen…
View article: The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures Open
While the IPCC’s physical science report usually assesses a handful of future scenarios, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Working Group III report (AR6 WGIII) on climate mitigation assesses hundreds to thousands of future emissions scenarios. A k…
View article: Earlier emergence of a temperature response to mitigation by filtering annual variability
Earlier emergence of a temperature response to mitigation by filtering annual variability Open
The rate of global surface warming is crucial for tracking progress towards global climate targets, but is strongly influenced by interannual-to-decadal variability, which precludes rapid detection of the temperature response to emission m…
View article: Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers
Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers Open
The emissions of reactive gases and aerosols can affect climate through the burdens of ozone, methane and aerosols, having both cooling and warming effects. These species are generally referred to near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) or short…
View article: A future perspective of historical contributions to climate change
A future perspective of historical contributions to climate change Open
Countries’ historical contributions to climate change have been on the agenda for more than two decades and will most likely continue to be an element in future international discussions and negotiations on climate. Previous studies have q…
View article: Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework
Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework Open
Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative fu…
View article: Updated analysis of the non-CO2 climate impacts of aviation and potential policy measures pursuant to EU Emissions Trading System Directive Article 30(4)
Updated analysis of the non-CO2 climate impacts of aviation and potential policy measures pursuant to EU Emissions Trading System Directive Article 30(4) Open
13TASK3: Potential policy action to reduce non-CO2climate impactsFollowing a review of scientific literature, and expert workshop discussions, a range of potential mitigation measures were identified to reduce the non-CO2climate impacts of…
View article: Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response Open
Reduced-complexity climate models (RCMs) are critical in the policy and decision making space, and are directly used within multiple Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to complement the results of more comprehensive E…
View article: Updated Global Warming Potentials and Radiative Efficiencies of Halocarbons and Other Weak Atmospheric Absorbers
Updated Global Warming Potentials and Radiative Efficiencies of Halocarbons and Other Weak Atmospheric Absorbers Open
Human activity has led to increased atmospheric concentrations of many gases, including halocarbons, and may lead to emissions of many more gases. Many of these gases are, on a per molecule basis, powerful greenhouse gases, although at pre…
View article: Curbing our expectations: Global temperature impacts from strong mitigation of individual climate forcers
Curbing our expectations: Global temperature impacts from strong mitigation of individual climate forcers Open
<p>Achieving the goals of the Paris agreement, or a stabilization of the global climate, requires strong and sustained mitigation of a range of anthropogenic emissions. A key stepping stone in this effort would be a measurable reduct…