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View article: Debt Trapped: Analysing the Impact of IMF on Economic Growth and Human Development in Highly Indebted Countries, with a Focus on Corruption
Debt Trapped: Analysing the Impact of IMF on Economic Growth and Human Development in Highly Indebted Countries, with a Focus on Corruption Open
Being indebted represents significant risks associated with global financial instability in a world where financial stability hangs precariously between debt and economic growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) casts a critical eye o…
View article: Are Eastern European Taylor Reaction Functions Asymmetric in Inflation or Output: Empirical Evidence for four Countries
Are Eastern European Taylor Reaction Functions Asymmetric in Inflation or Output: Empirical Evidence for four Countries Open
Do central banks in Eastern European countries react asymmetrically and in a non-linear fashion to changes in inflation and output? We tackle this question by expanding the standard Taylor reaction function for the four inflation targeting…
View article: Measuring Redenomination Risks in the Euro Area - New Evidence from survey Data
Measuring Redenomination Risks in the Euro Area - New Evidence from survey Data Open
This article introduces a new indicator to measure redenomination risks in Euro area countries. The measure is based on survey data. The influence of this indicator in determining sovereign bond yield spreads is tested using an ARDL-approa…
View article: Equilibrium Real Interest Rates for the BRICS Countries
Equilibrium Real Interest Rates for the BRICS Countries Open
The equilibrium real interest rate is one of the most discussed variables in economics, although it is unobservable. While it has been estimated with respect to various developed countries, this paper is the first to estimate it for five d…
View article: COVID-19 and Financial Markets: A Panel Analysis for European Countries
COVID-19 and Financial Markets: A Panel Analysis for European Countries Open
In order to fight the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, monetary and fiscal policy announced a large variety of support packages which are often unprecedented in size. In this paper, we provide an empirical analysis of the re…
View article: The stock market and NO<sub>2</sub> emissions effects of COVID‐19 around the world
The stock market and NO<sub>2</sub> emissions effects of COVID‐19 around the world Open
In this paper, we study the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in estimated panel vector autoregression models for 92 countries. The large cross‐section of countries allows us to shed light on the heterogeneity of the response…
View article: Why central banks announcing liquidity injections is more effective than forward guidance
Why central banks announcing liquidity injections is more effective than forward guidance Open
We distinguish the announcement effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures on macroeconomic variables using a high‐frequency data set that measures the impact of the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision…
View article: Forecasting exchange rates with commodity prices—a global country analysis
Forecasting exchange rates with commodity prices—a global country analysis Open
This paper investigates the predictive properties of import and export prices of commodities on the exchange rates. A period from 1993 to 2016 is considered. We find that forecasts of the exchange rate adding commodity export and import pr…
View article: Forecasting ECB Policy Rates with Different Monetary Policy Rules
Forecasting ECB Policy Rates with Different Monetary Policy Rules Open
This article compares two types of monetary policy rules – the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule – with respect to their forecasting properties for the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from estimates models…
View article: Forecasting ECB policy rates with different monetary policy rules
Forecasting ECB policy rates with different monetary policy rules Open
This article compares two types of monetary policy rules - the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule - with respect to their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results f…
View article: Determinants of the Eurosystem's Central Banks Provisions
Determinants of the Eurosystem's Central Banks Provisions Open
Central bank provisions may be used as a measure of the perceived risk of the balance sheet composition by a central bank. We identify three possible sources that may change the size of the provisions. These are: The length of the balance …
View article: Equilibrium Real Interest Rates, Secular Stagnation, and the Financial Cycle: Empirical Evidence for Euro-Area Member Countries
Equilibrium Real Interest Rates, Secular Stagnation, and the Financial Cycle: Empirical Evidence for Euro-Area Member Countries Open
Is the Euro area as a whole, or are individual Euro-area member countries facing a period of sustained lower economic growth, a phenomenon known as secular stagnation? We tackle this question by estimating equilibrium real interest rates a…
View article: Equilibrium real interest rates, secular stagnation, and the financial cycle: Empirical evidence for euro-area member countries
Equilibrium real interest rates, secular stagnation, and the financial cycle: Empirical evidence for euro-area member countries Open
Is the Euro area as a whole, or are individual Euro-area member countries facing a period of sustained lower economic growth, a phenomenon known as secular stagnation? We tackle this question by estimating equilibrium real interest rates a…
View article: Equilibrium Real Interest Rates and Secular Stagnation: An Empirical Analysis for Euro-Area Member Countries. CEPS Working Document No 2017/09, August 2017
Equilibrium Real Interest Rates and Secular Stagnation: An Empirical Analysis for Euro-Area Member Countries. CEPS Working Document No 2017/09, August 2017 Open
Is secular stagnation—a period of persistently lower growth such as that seen following the financial crisis of 2008-09—a valid concern for euro-area countries? We tackle this question using the well-established Laubach-Williams model to e…
View article: Secular Stagnation in Non-EMU European Countries : Equilibrium Real Rate Approach
Secular Stagnation in Non-EMU European Countries : Equilibrium Real Rate Approach Open
Concerns about economies facing secular stagnation-a period of persistently lower growth-have been renewed after the start of the financial crisis in 2008~2009.This issue is well investigated for the euro area as a whole or for the individ…
View article: Exchange rate movements in the presence of the zero lower bound
Exchange rate movements in the presence of the zero lower bound Open
Exchange rates are expected to adjust according to the stance of monetary policies, which are in normal times differences in interest rates set by the central banks. This interest rate parity does, however, no longer hold if central banks …