Joe McNorton
YOU?
Author Swipe
View article: State of Wildfires 2024–2025
State of Wildfires 2024–2025 Open
Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme wildfires globally, yet our understanding of these high-impact events remains uneven and shaped by media attention and regional research biases. The State of Wildfires pro…
View article: Hydroclimatic Rebound Drives Extreme Fire in California's Non‐Forested Ecosystems
Hydroclimatic Rebound Drives Extreme Fire in California's Non‐Forested Ecosystems Open
The catastrophic Los Angeles Fires of January 2025 underscore the urgent need to understand the complex interplay between hydroclimatic variability and wildfire behavior. This study investigates how sequential wet and dry periods, hydrocli…
View article: State of Wildfires 2024–25
State of Wildfires 2024–25 Open
Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme wildfires globally, yet our understanding of these high-impact events remains uneven and shaped by media attention and regional research biases. The State of Wildfire Proj…
View article: Global urban climate analysis on multi-decadal km-scale climate simulations
Global urban climate analysis on multi-decadal km-scale climate simulations Open
Current research on future urban climate involves several steps from global climate simulation planning (e.g. CMIP), through downscaling and down to impact modelling. This process is often time-consuming and can introduce physical and tech…
View article: Tracking extreme fire behaviour through assimilated fuel variables: A lens on climate change impact
Tracking extreme fire behaviour through assimilated fuel variables: A lens on climate change impact Open
Fire-prone ecosystems — including savannas, boreal forests, and Mediterranean regions — are experiencing increasingly intense wildfires, with climate change identified as a key driver. Changes in temperature, precipitation, and vegetation …
View article: Global data-driven prediction of fire activity requires good quality data
Global data-driven prediction of fire activity requires good quality data Open
Machine learning offers a vast range of applications, including weather and hazard forecasting. The ability of these methods to more easily and efficiently extract information from diverse and novel data types enables the transition ty. Th…
View article: Urban climate in km-scale climate simulations under historical periods and future scenarios
Urban climate in km-scale climate simulations under historical periods and future scenarios Open
We analyse two 30-year long global, fully coupled Earth-System simulations at a spatial resolution of around 9 km. The first simulation covers the recent decades from 1990-2020, while the second simulates a future SSP3-7.0 scenario, usuall…
View article: Global data-driven prediction of fire activity
Global data-driven prediction of fire activity Open
Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have expanded the potential use across scientific applications, including weather and hazard forecasting. The ability of these methods to extract information from diverse and novel data types en…
View article: The Water Balance Representation in Urban‐PLUMBER Land Surface Models
The Water Balance Representation in Urban‐PLUMBER Land Surface Models Open
Urban Land Surface Models (ULSMs) simulate energy and water exchanges between the urban surface and atmosphere. However, earlier systematic ULSM comparison projects assessed the energy balance but ignored the water balance, which is couple…
View article: State of Wildfires 2023–2024
State of Wildfires 2023–2024 Open
Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, prim…
View article: A Global Probability‐Of‐Fire (PoF) Forecast
A Global Probability‐Of‐Fire (PoF) Forecast Open
Accurate wildfire forecasting can inform regional management and mitigation strategies in advance of fire occurrence. Existing systems typically use fire danger indices to predict landscape flammability, based on meteorological forecasts a…
View article: State of Wildfires 2023–24
State of Wildfires 2023–24 Open
Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influ…
View article: Review period
Review period Open
Abstract. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, prima…
View article: An Operational Global Probability-of-Fire (PoF) Forecast : Can we predict extreme events?
An Operational Global Probability-of-Fire (PoF) Forecast : Can we predict extreme events? Open
Wildfires have widespread effects on local ecosystems, communities, air quality, and global atmospheric conditions. Accurate wildfire forecasts can be used by local communities and agencies to manage and respond to wildfires effectively. A…
View article: Demonstrating the potential of km-scale multi-annual coupled global simulations in nextGEMS: a (urban) surface perspective
Demonstrating the potential of km-scale multi-annual coupled global simulations in nextGEMS: a (urban) surface perspective Open
The nextGEMS project is dedicated to develop global coupled earth-system models for multidecadal climate projections at a kilometre-scale resolution. By harnessing the strengths of high spatial resolution, the project seeks to improve the …
View article: The water balance representation in Urban-PLUMBER land surface models
The water balance representation in Urban-PLUMBER land surface models Open
Urban Land Surface Models (ULSMs) simulate energy and water exchanges between the urban surface and atmosphere. When part of numerical weather prediction, ULSMs provide a lower boundary for the atmosphere and improve the applicability of m…
View article: A global fuel characteristic model and dataset for wildfire prediction
A global fuel characteristic model and dataset for wildfire prediction Open
Effective wildfire management and prevention strategies depend on accurate forecasts of fire occurrence and propagation. Fuel load and fuel moisture content are essential variables for forecasting fire occurrence, and whilst existing opera…
View article: A Global Probability-of-Fire (PoF) Forecast
A Global Probability-of-Fire (PoF) Forecast Open
Accurate wildfire forecasting can inform regional management and mitigation strategies in advance of fire occurrence. Existing systems typically use fire danger indices to predict landscape flammability, based on meteorological forecasts a…
View article: Reply on RC2
Reply on RC2 Open
Abstract. Effective wildfire management and prevention strategies depend on accurate forecasts of fire occurrence and propagation. Fuel load and fuel moisture content are essential variables for forecasting fire occurrence and whilst exist…
View article: Reply on RC1
Reply on RC1 Open
Abstract. Effective wildfire management and prevention strategies depend on accurate forecasts of fire occurrence and propagation. Fuel load and fuel moisture content are essential variables for forecasting fire occurrence and whilst exist…
View article: Comment on egusphere-2023-1984
Comment on egusphere-2023-1984 Open
Abstract. Effective wildfire management and prevention strategies depend on accurate forecasts of fire occurrence and propagation. Fuel load and fuel moisture content are essential variables for forecasting fire occurrence and whilst exist…
View article: Evaluation of 30 urban land surface models in the <scp>Urban‐PLUMBER</scp> project: Phase 1 results
Evaluation of 30 urban land surface models in the <span>Urban‐PLUMBER</span> project: Phase 1 results Open
Accurately predicting weather and climate in cities is critical for safeguarding human health and strengthening urban resilience. Multimodel evaluations can lead to model improvements; however, there have been no major intercomparisons of …
View article: A global fuel characteristic model and dataset for wildfire prediction
A global fuel characteristic model and dataset for wildfire prediction Open
Effective wildfire management and prevention strategies depend on accurate forecasts of fire occurrence and propagation. Fuel load and fuel moisture content are essential variables for forecasting fire occurrence and whilst existing operat…
View article: Associated results of Phase 1 of the Urban-PLUMBER model evaluation project
Associated results of Phase 1 of the Urban-PLUMBER model evaluation project Open
Archive of: https://urban-plumber.github.io/AU-Preston/plots/ Files in this folder are associated with the manuscript: “Evaluation of 30 urban land surface models in the Urban-PLUMBER project: Phase 1 results” Files are an archive of the w…
View article: Associated results of Phase 1 of the Urban-PLUMBER model evaluation project
Associated results of Phase 1 of the Urban-PLUMBER model evaluation project Open
Archive of: https://urban-plumber.github.io/AU-Preston/plots/ Files in this folder are associated with the manuscript: “Evaluation of 30 urban land surface models in the Urban-PLUMBER project: Phase 1 results” Files are an archive of the w…
View article: Observational constraints reduce model spread but not uncertainty in global wetland methane emission estimates
Observational constraints reduce model spread but not uncertainty in global wetland methane emission estimates Open
The recent rise in atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) concentrations accelerates climate change and offsets mitigation efforts. Although wetlands are the largest natural CH 4 source, estimates of global wetland CH 4 emissions vary widely among ap…
View article: Technical note: The CAMS greenhouse gas reanalysis from 2003 to 2020
Technical note: The CAMS greenhouse gas reanalysis from 2003 to 2020 Open
The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) has recently produced a greenhouse gas reanalysis (version egg4) that covers almost 2 decades from 2003 to 2020 and which will be extended in the future. This reanalysis dataset includes …