Explanipedia

Mapping the climate niches of forest insects and diseases in Canada under current and future climate Open

John Pedlar, Daniel W. McKenney, Glenn Lawrence · 2025

Insects and diseases are important disturbance agents in Canadian forests and there is concern that their impacts will intensify under climate change. Here we report on an effort to model and map the climate niches of more than 4000 forest…

Updated plant hardiness zones for Canada and assessment of change over time Open

Daniel W. McKenney, John Pedlar, Kevin Lawrence, Kaitlin DeBoer, Heather MacDonald · 2025

Habitat and Migration Dynamics of North American Tree Species Under Climate Change Open

Anantha Prasad, David L. Peterson, John Pedlar, Andrew V. Gougherty, Daniel W. McKenney , et al. · 2025

Aim We model and map the climatically suitable habitats and migration potential of 326 tree species by combining forest inventories of the United States, Canada and to a lesser extent, Mexico, with the goal of providing a continental persp…

Climate change, caribou protection, and Canada's timber supply Open

Denys Yemshanov, Mackenzie Simpson, Sylvie Gauthier, Ning Liu, John Pedlar , et al. · 2025

Managed forests are a significant contributor to Canada's economic wealth. However, forestry activities increase landscape fragmentation and impact wildlife species, such as Canada's woodland caribou, that depend on large areas of undistur…

Challenges and opportunities for the operationalization of forest-assisted migration in Canada Open

Amy Wotherspoon, Loïc D’Orangeville, Nelson Thiffault, John Pedlar, Patricia Raymond , et al. · 2025

As temperatures increase and suitable forest habitat shift faster than trees can adapt, the impacts of climate change threaten forest health and productivity. Forest-assisted migration (FAM) is a key adaptive forest management tool used to…

Spatial datasets of CMIP6 climate change projections for Canada and the United States Open

Daniel W. McKenney, John Pedlar, Kevin Lawrence, S. R. Sobie, Kaitlin DeBoer , et al. · 2024

Geospatial climate change projections are critical for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations across a wide range of disciplines. Here we present monthly-based grids of climate change projections at a 2-km resolution covering Can…

Assisted migration outcomes for oak species and seed sources in southern Ontario, Canada Open

John Pedlar, Daniel W. McKenney, Kristen Sandvall, Heather Zurbrigg, Kerry McLaven · 2024

Introduction Forest assisted migration has been proposed as a means to align tree populations with shifting climate habitats under climate change. Here we report on the growth and survival of oak species and seed sources at five assisted m…

Spatial datasets of 30-year (1991–2020) average monthly total precipitation and minimum/maximum temperature for Canada and the United States Open

Heather MacDonald, Daniel W. McKenney, John Pedlar, Kevin Lawrence, Kaitlin de Boer , et al. · 2024

Characteristics of logs with signs of oviposition by the polyphagous xylophage Asian longhorned beetle (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) Open

Jean Turgeon, John Pedlar, Ronald E. Fournier, Michael T. Smith, Mary Orr , et al. · 2024

During the eradication program undertaken against Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) in the Greater Toronto Area, information was collected on the numerous signs of injury found on wounded trees. Herein, we used a portion of this infor…

North American models of habitat quality and migration potential under climate change Open

Anantha Prasad, David L. Peterson, John Pedlar, Daniel W. McKenney, Franz Mora · 2024

Modeled habitat suitability for 326 trees species across North America under 1991-2020 climate conditions and projected future conditions (2070-2100) were created using a multi-model ensemble (MME) approach that correlates individual tree …

Assessing Assisted Population Migration (Seed Transfer) for Eastern White Pine at Northern Planting Sites Open

Pengxin Lu, Jean Beaulieu, John Pedlar, William C. Parker, Daniel W. McKenney , et al. · 2024

Heating degree day spatial datasets for Canada Open

Heather MacDonald, John Pedlar, Daniel W. McKenney, Kevin Lawrence, Kaitlin de Boer , et al. · 2023

Effect of tree species and seed origin on climate change trial outcomes in Southern Ontario Open

John Pedlar, Daniel W. McKenney, Darren J. Allen · 2023

Under a changing climate, species will need to rapidly adapt to novel conditions at existing locations, migrate to track suitable climate, or risk widespread declines. For sessile, slow-migrating organisms like trees, adaptive capacity is …

Size requirements of intact forest landscapes for effective biodiversity conservation under regional fire regimes and climate change Open

Lisa Venier, John Pedlar, Kellina L. Higgins, Kevin Lawrence, Russ Walton , et al. · 2022

Conserving large intact forest landscapes (IFLs) is one forest management strategy to mitigate industrial impacts on the environment. Measuring the IFL inventory at national scales has also been proposed as a means of assessing the conserv…

Migration‐based simulations for Canadian trees show limited tracking of suitable climate under climate change Open

Laura Boisvert‐Marsh, John Pedlar, Sylvie de Blois, Amaël Le Squin, Kevin Lawrence , et al. · 2022

Aim Species distribution models typically project climatically suitable habitat for trees in eastern North America to shift hundreds of kilometres this century. We simulated potential migration, accounting for various traits that affect sp…

Enhancing forest resilience: Advances in Ontario’s wild tree seed transfer policy Open

Betty van Kerkhof, Ken A. Elliott, Pengxin Lu, Daniel W. McKenney, William C. Parker , et al. · 2022

Climate is a critical driver in shaping patterns of tree distribution and productivity in Canadian forests. Canada’s climate is changing and, as a result, tree populations may become maladapted to the climate at their current growing locat…

Canada’s response to invasion by Asian longhorned beetle (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in Ontario Open

Jean Turgeon, Ben Gasman, Michael T. Smith, John Pedlar, Mary Orr , et al. · 2022

A reproductive population of the Asian longhorned beetle, Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), an adventive insect from Asia, was discovered in 2003 in an urban landscape in Ontario, Canada. This polyphagous b…

Tree selection and use by the polyphagous xylophage <i>Anoplophora glabripennis</i> (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in Canada Open

Jean Turgeon, Michael T. Smith, John Pedlar, Ronald E. Fournier, Mary Orr , et al. · 2021

Two breeding populations of the non-native Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis Motschulsky), a pest of broadleaf trees in its native China, were discovered in Ontario in 2003 and 2013, respectively. Both populations were erad…

Response of Northern Populations of Black Spruce and Jack Pine to Southward Seed Transfers: Implications for Climate Change Open

John Pedlar, Daniel W. McKenney, Pengxin Lu, Ashley M. Thomson · 2021

A variety of responses to climate change have been reported for northern tree populations, primarily from tree-ring and satellite-based studies. Here we employ provenance data to examine growth and survival responses of northern population…

Spatial Models of Adjusted Precipitation for Canada at Varying Time Scales Open

Heather MacDonald, Daniel W. McKenney, Xiaolan L. Wang, John Pedlar, Pia Papadopol , et al. · 2021

This study presents spatial models (i.e., thin-plate spatially continuous spline surfaces) of adjusted precipitation for Canada at daily, pentad (5 day), and monthly time scales from 1900 to 2015. The input data include manual observations…

A compilation of North American tree provenance trials and relevant historical climate data for seven species Open

Clara Risk, Daniel W. McKenney, John Pedlar, Pengxin Lu · 2021

Tree provenance trials consist of a variety of seed sources (or provenances) planted at several test sites across the range of a species. The resulting plantations are typically measured periodically to investigate provenance performance i…

North American historical monthly spatial climate dataset, 1901–2016 Open

Heather MacDonald, Daniel W. McKenney, Pia Papadopol, Kevin Lawrence, John Pedlar , et al. · 2020

Assessing the climate suitability and potential economic impacts of Oak wilt in Canada Open

John Pedlar, Daniel W. McKenney, Emily S. Hope, Sharon E. Reed, Jon Sweeney · 2020

We assess risks posed by oak wilt—a disease caused by the fungal pathogen Bretziella fagacearum . Though not currently found in Canada, our distribution models indicate that suitable climate conditions currently occur in southern Ontario f…

Combining US and Canadian forest inventories to assess habitat suitability and migration potential of 25 tree species under climate change Open

Anantha Prasad, John Pedlar, David L. Peterson, Daniel W. McKenney, Louis R. Iverson , et al. · 2020

Aim To evaluate current and future dynamics of 25 tree species spanning United States and Canada. Location United States and Canada. Methods We combine, for the first time, the species compositions from relative importance derived from the…

Climate‐change refugia in boreal North America: what, where, and for how long? Open

Diana Stralberg, Dominique Arseneault, Jennifer L. Baltzer, Quinn E. Barber, Erin M. Bayne , et al. · 2020

The vast boreal biome plays an important role in the global carbon cycle but is experiencing particularly rapid climate warming, threatening the integrity of valued ecosystems and their component species. We developed a framework and taxon…

QFLAGS by type by year (temperature) Open