Jon E. Keeley
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View article: The role of fire on Earth
The role of fire on Earth Open
Fire is a defining feature of our biosphere, having appeared when the first plants colonized the land, and it continues to occur across the planet at different frequencies and intensities. Fire has been and remains as an evolutionary force…
View article: Regional patterns in U.S. wildfire activity: the critical role of ignition sources
Regional patterns in U.S. wildfire activity: the critical role of ignition sources Open
As extreme wildfires increase globally, understanding their causes is critical for effective management. While climate and housing growth are commonly linked to rising fire activity, the role of specific ignition sources—particularly human…
View article: Are fire regimes the result of top-down or bottom-up drivers?
Are fire regimes the result of top-down or bottom-up drivers? Open
The evolutionary topic we examine here is whether species determine the environment (bottom-up) or if environments shape plant traits (top-down). For the environment, we focus on the fire regime. Many forests are subject to either frequent…
View article: <i>Ceanothus</i>: Taxonomic patterns in life history responses to fire
<i>Ceanothus</i>: Taxonomic patterns in life history responses to fire Open
Premise Ceanothus (Rhamnaceae) is a large genus of shrubs that dominate California chaparral and are resilient to fires. Persistence is ensured by resprouting and/or seedling recruitment from dormant seed banks. Some species do both and ot…
View article: Climate and weather drivers in southern California Santa Ana Wind and non-Santa Wind fires
Climate and weather drivers in southern California Santa Ana Wind and non-Santa Wind fires Open
Background Autumn and winter Santa Ana Winds (SAW) are responsible for the largest and most destructive wildfires in southern California. Aims (1) To contrast fires ignited on SAW days vs non-SAW days, (2) evaluate the predictive ability o…
View article: The need for mechanistic explanations in (seed) ecology
The need for mechanistic explanations in (seed) ecology Open
The increasing availability of global-scale data on plant traits (e.g. Kattge et al., 2020), species distribution (e.g. GBIF.org), climate variables (e.g. Fick & Hijmans, 2017), sophisticated numerical methods (e.g. machine learning tools,…
View article: Evolutionary fire ecology: An historical account and future directions
Evolutionary fire ecology: An historical account and future directions Open
The idea that fire acts as an evolutionary force contributing to shaping species traits started a century ago, but had not been widely recognized until very recently. Among the first to realize this force were Edward B. Poulton, R. Dale Gu…
View article: Spatial and temporal strategies of resprouting and seeding in a chaparral shrub species
Spatial and temporal strategies of resprouting and seeding in a chaparral shrub species Open
There is no conflict of interest. Seedling and resprout data (Keeley, 2023) are available in the USGS ScienceBase Catalog at https://doi.org/10.5066/P9713QT4. Fire history data were from annual reports known as Redbooks obtained from CAL F…
View article: Autumn precipitation: the competition with Santa Ana winds in determining fire outcomes in southern California
Autumn precipitation: the competition with Santa Ana winds in determining fire outcomes in southern California Open
Background California’s South Coast has experienced peak burned area in autumn. Following typically dry, warm summers, precipitation events and Santa Ana winds (SAWs) each occur with increasing frequency from autumn to winter and may affec…
View article: What Makes Wildfires Destructive in California?
What Makes Wildfires Destructive in California? Open
As human impacts from wildfires mount, there is a pressing need to understand why structures are lost in destructive fires. Despite growing research on factors contributing to structure loss, fewer studies have focused on why some fires ar…
View article: Bet‐hedging and best‐bet strategies shape seed dormancy
Bet‐hedging and best‐bet strategies shape seed dormancy Open
Seed dormancy (i.e. delayed germination even when conditions arefavourable) is a key plant characteristic that occurs among manyspecies worldwide. But, what selective pressures led to seeddormancy? A recent study provides a major analysis …
View article: The effects of prolonged drought on vegetation dieback and megafires in southern California chaparral
The effects of prolonged drought on vegetation dieback and megafires in southern California chaparral Open
Drought contributed to extensive dieback of southern California chaparral, and normalized difference vegetation index before drought and near the end of the drought was used to estimate this dieback, after accounting for other disturbances…
View article: Vegetation type conversion in the US Southwest: frontline observations and management responses
Vegetation type conversion in the US Southwest: frontline observations and management responses Open
Background Forest and nonforest ecosystems of the western United States are experiencing major transformations in response to land-use change, climate warming, and their interactive effects with wildland fire. Some ecosystems are transitio…
View article: Large California wildfires: 2020 fires in historical context
Large California wildfires: 2020 fires in historical context Open
Background California in the year 2020 experienced a record breaking number of large fires. Here, we place this and other recent years in a historical context by examining records of large fire events in the state back to 1860. Since droug…
View article: Ignitions explain more than temperature or precipitation in driving Santa Ana wind fires
Ignitions explain more than temperature or precipitation in driving Santa Ana wind fires Open
Temperature and precipitation play less of a role in predicting area burned compared to wind speed and number of ignitions.
View article: Multiple-Scale Relationships between Vegetation, the Wildland–Urban Interface, and Structure Loss to Wildfire in California
Multiple-Scale Relationships between Vegetation, the Wildland–Urban Interface, and Structure Loss to Wildfire in California Open
Recent increases in destructive wildfires are driving a need for empirical research documenting factors that contribute to structure loss. Existing studies show that fire risk is complex and varies geographically, and the role of vegetatio…
View article: Contrasting prescription burning and wildfires in California Sierra Nevada national parks and adjacent national forests
Contrasting prescription burning and wildfires in California Sierra Nevada national parks and adjacent national forests Open
History of prescription burning and wildfires in the three Sierra Nevada National Park Service (NPS) parks and adjacent US Forest Service (USFS) forests is presented. Annual prescription (Rx) burns began in 1968 in Sequoia and Kings Canyon…
View article: U.S. Geological Survey wildland fire science strategic plan, 2021–26
U.S. Geological Survey wildland fire science strategic plan, 2021–26 Open
First posted February 23, 2021 For additional information, contact: Wildland Fire Science ProgramU.S Geological Survey12201 Sunrise Valley DriveReston, VA 20192Contact Pubs Warehouse The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Wildland Fire Science …
View article: Subspecies differentiation in an enigmatic chaparral shrub species
Subspecies differentiation in an enigmatic chaparral shrub species Open
Premise Delimiting biodiversity units is difficult in organisms in which differentiation is obscured by hybridization, plasticity, and other factors that blur phenotypic boundaries. Such work is more complicated when the focal units are su…
View article: Framework for monitoring shrubland community integrity in California Mediterranean type ecosystems: Information for policy makers and land managers
Framework for monitoring shrubland community integrity in California Mediterranean type ecosystems: Information for policy makers and land managers Open
Shrublands in Mediterranean‐type ecosystems worldwide support important ecosystem services including high levels of biodiversity and are threatened by multiple factors in heavily used landscapes. Use, conservation, and management of these …
View article: Factors Associated with Structure Loss in the 2013–2018 California Wildfires
Factors Associated with Structure Loss in the 2013–2018 California Wildfires Open
Tens of thousands of structures and hundreds of human lives have been lost in recent fire events throughout California. Given the potential for these types of wildfires to continue, the need to understand why and how structures are being d…
View article: Twenty-first century California, USA, wildfires: fuel-dominated vs. wind-dominated fires
Twenty-first century California, USA, wildfires: fuel-dominated vs. wind-dominated fires Open
Since the beginning of the twenty-first century California, USA, has experienced a substantial increase in the frequency of large wildfires, often with extreme impacts on people and property. Due to the size of the state, it is not surpris…
View article: Extent and drivers of vegetation type conversion in Southern California chaparral
Extent and drivers of vegetation type conversion in Southern California chaparral Open
The native chaparral shrublands of Southern California support exceptional biodiversity and provide critical ecological services, but increased fire frequency threatens to extirpate much of the chaparral due to long regeneration times need…
View article: Negative impacts of summer heat on Sierra Nevada tree seedlings
Negative impacts of summer heat on Sierra Nevada tree seedlings Open
Understanding the response of forests to climate change is important for predicting changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services, including carbon storage. Seedlings represent a key demographic stage in these responses, because seedling …
View article: The Effect of Ecophysiological Traits on Live Fuel Moisture Content
The Effect of Ecophysiological Traits on Live Fuel Moisture Content Open
Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) is an important metric for fire danger ratings. However, there is limited understanding of the physiological control of LFMC or how it varies among co-occurring species. This is a problem for biodiverse ye…
View article: Wildfires as an ecosystem service
Wildfires as an ecosystem service Open
Wildfires are often perceived as destructive disturbances, but we propose that when integrating evolutionary and socioecological factors, fires in most ecosystems can be understood as natural processes that provide a variety of benefits to…
View article: Distinguishing disturbance from perturbations in fire-prone ecosystems
Distinguishing disturbance from perturbations in fire-prone ecosystems Open
Fire is a necessary ecosystem process in many biomes and is best viewed as a natural disturbance that is beneficial to ecosystem functioning. However, increasingly, we are seeing human interference in fire regimes that alters the historica…
View article: Historical patterns of wildfire ignition sources in California ecosystems
Historical patterns of wildfire ignition sources in California ecosystems Open
State and federal agencies have reported fire causes since the early 1900s, explicitly for the purpose of helping land managers design fire-prevention programs. We document fire-ignition patterns in five homogenous climate divisions in Cal…
View article: Drivers of chaparral type conversion to herbaceous vegetation in coastal Southern California
Drivers of chaparral type conversion to herbaceous vegetation in coastal Southern California Open
Aim In Southern California, native woody shrublands known as chaparral support exceptional biodiversity. However, large‐scale conversion of chaparral into largely exotic herbaceous cover is a major ecological threat and serious conservatio…
View article: Fire and Plant Diversification in Mediterranean-Climate Regions
Fire and Plant Diversification in Mediterranean-Climate Regions Open
Despite decades of broad interest in global patterns of biodiversity, little attention has been given to understanding the remarkable levels of plant diversity present in the world's five Mediterranean-type climate (MTC) regions, all of wh…