Jonathan F. Donges
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View article: Quantifying Resilience in Non-Autonomous and Stochastic Earth System Dynamics with Application to Glacial-Interglacial Cycles
Quantifying Resilience in Non-Autonomous and Stochastic Earth System Dynamics with Application to Glacial-Interglacial Cycles Open
Understanding Earth resilience—the capacity of the Earth system to absorb and regenerate from perturbations—is key to assessing risks from anthropogenic pressures and sustaining a safe operating space for humanity within planetary boundari…
View article: Supplementary material to "copan:LPJmL: A new hybrid modelling framework for dynamic land use and agricultural management"
Supplementary material to "copan:LPJmL: A new hybrid modelling framework for dynamic land use and agricultural management" Open
View article: copan:LPJmL: A new hybrid modelling framework for dynamic land use and agricultural management
copan:LPJmL: A new hybrid modelling framework for dynamic land use and agricultural management Open
Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are established in environmental and agricultural sciences for many purposes, e.g., modelling plant growth and productivity, water and carbon cycles, and biosphere-climate interactions. Nevertheless…
View article: Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations
Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations Open
Continued anthropogenic pressures on the Earth system hold the potential to disrupt established circulation patterns in the ocean and atmosphere. In this narrative review, we investigate tipping points in these systems by assessing scienti…
View article: Supplementary material to "From Farm to Planet: The InSEEDS World-Earth Model for Simulating Transitions to Regenerative Agriculture"
Supplementary material to "From Farm to Planet: The InSEEDS World-Earth Model for Simulating Transitions to Regenerative Agriculture" Open
View article: From Farm to Planet: The InSEEDS World-Earth Model for Simulating Transitions to Regenerative Agriculture
From Farm to Planet: The InSEEDS World-Earth Model for Simulating Transitions to Regenerative Agriculture Open
Industrialised agriculture and its externalisation of environmental costs have contributed to accelerating ecological degradation and the transgression of planetary boundaries. Vice versa, agriculture is increasingly affected by ecological…
View article: The TIPMIP Earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1
The TIPMIP Earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1 Open
We describe a new Earth system model (ESM) experiment protocol, as part of the international Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) project. We propose this as a protocol for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 7 (…
View article: The implications of overshooting 1.5°C on Earth system tipping elements - a review
The implications of overshooting 1.5°C on Earth system tipping elements - a review Open
Due to insufficient emission reductions in recent years, it is increasingly likely that global warming will exceed the 1.5 °C temperature limit in the coming decades. As a result, several Earth system tipping elements could, at least tempo…
View article: Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social–ecological multi-layer network model
Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social–ecological multi-layer network model Open
Social norms are a key socio-cultural driver of human behaviour and have been identified as a central process in potential social tipping dynamics. They play a central role in governance and thus represent a possible intervention point for…
View article: A systemic risk assessment methodological framework for the global polycrisis
A systemic risk assessment methodological framework for the global polycrisis Open
View article: The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP): Assessing tipping point risks in the Earth system
The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP): Assessing tipping point risks in the Earth system Open
The risk of transgressing critical thresholds triggering nonlinear change in the Earth system increases with rising human pressures from greenhouse gas emissions, land-use change and other drivers. Several key components of the Earth Syste…
View article: Publisher Correction: Planetary Boundaries guide humanity’s future on Earth
Publisher Correction: Planetary Boundaries guide humanity’s future on Earth Open
View article: Causal pathway from AMOC to Southern Amazon rainforest indicates stabilising interaction between two climate tipping elements
Causal pathway from AMOC to Southern Amazon rainforest indicates stabilising interaction between two climate tipping elements Open
Declines in resilience have been observed in several climate tipping elements over the past decades, including the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest (AR). Large-scale nonlinear and possibly irreve…
View article: A global threshold model of enabling conditions for social tipping in pro-environmental behaviours – the role of sea level rise anticipation and climate change concern
A global threshold model of enabling conditions for social tipping in pro-environmental behaviours – the role of sea level rise anticipation and climate change concern Open
Effective climate change mitigation necessitates swift societal transformations. Positive social tipping processes, where small triggers initiate qualitative systemic shifts, are potential key mechanisms towards instigating the desired emi…
View article: Integrating Diversity and Agency into Social-Ecological Resilience Metrics
Integrating Diversity and Agency into Social-Ecological Resilience Metrics Open
Resilience is an increasingly popular concept in research and practice, but quantitative resilience analyses are often disconnected from resilience theory. For example, previous studies argue that diversity, a key attribute for building re…
View article: Special Issue: International Space Science Institute (ISSI) Workshop on Tipping Elements in the Earth’s Climate System
Special Issue: International Space Science Institute (ISSI) Workshop on Tipping Elements in the Earth’s Climate System Open
View article: Timing dynamics of internal displacement in Somalia vary depending on the coincidence with local political and climatic conditions
Timing dynamics of internal displacement in Somalia vary depending on the coincidence with local political and climatic conditions Open
Human migration is one of the defining topics of our time, but the dynamics of when and how often migration events occur are poorly understood. Often, a single, context-unaware model is assumed without empirical evidence. Spatiotemporal de…
View article: Monitoring the Multiple Stages of Climate Tipping Systems from Space: Do the GCOS Essential Climate Variables Meet the Needs?
Monitoring the Multiple Stages of Climate Tipping Systems from Space: Do the GCOS Essential Climate Variables Meet the Needs? Open
View article: The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority
The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority Open
How do social networks tip? A popular theory is that a small minority can trigger population-wide social change. This aligns with the Pareto principle, a semi-quantitative law which suggests that, in many systems, 80 % of effects arise fro…
View article: Causal pathway from AMOC to Southern Amazon rainforest indicates stabilising interaction between two climate tipping elements
Causal pathway from AMOC to Southern Amazon rainforest indicates stabilising interaction between two climate tipping elements Open
Declines in resilience have been observed in several climate tipping elements over the past decades, including the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest (AR). Large-scale nonlinear and possibly irreve…
View article: Planetary Boundaries guide humanity’s future on Earth
Planetary Boundaries guide humanity’s future on Earth Open
View article: Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social-ecological multi-layer network model
Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social-ecological multi-layer network model Open
Social norms are a key socio-cultural driver of human behaviour and have been identified as a central process in potential social tipping dynamics. They play a central role in governance and thus represent a possible intervention point for…
View article: Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization
Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization Open
In recent years, research on normatively positive social tipping dynamics in response to the climate crisis has produced invaluable insights. In contrast, relatively little attention has been given to the potentially negative social tippin…
View article: Independent or interdependent? Migration timing dynamics and their association with external stressors
Independent or interdependent? Migration timing dynamics and their association with external stressors Open
Human migration is one of the defining topics of our time, but the dynamics of when and how often migration events occur are poorly understood. Often, a single, context-unaware model is assumed without empirical evidence. Spatiotemporal de…
View article: Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks
Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks Open
View article: From situated knowledges to situated modelling: a relational framework for simulation modelling
From situated knowledges to situated modelling: a relational framework for simulation modelling Open
In this paper we extend the use of a relational approach to simulation modelling, a widely used knowledge practice in sustainability science. Among modellers, there is awareness that model results can only be interpreted in view of the ass…
View article: Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Open
The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are considered tipping elements in the climate system, where global warming exceeding critical threshold levels in forcing can lead to large-scale and non…
View article: Comment on egusphere-2023-2241
Comment on egusphere-2023-2241 Open
Abstract. How do social networks tip? A popular theory is that a small minority can affect network, or population wide change. This effect is roughly consistent with the properties of the Pareto principle, a semi-quantitat…
View article: Comment on egusphere-2023-2589
Comment on egusphere-2023-2589 Open
Abstract. In this review, we assess scientific evidence for tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations. The warming of oceans, modified wind patterns and increasing freshwater influx from melting ice hold the pote…
View article: The Tipping Point Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP)
The Tipping Point Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) Open
While tipping points in the Earth system are recognized in the public and policy debate as one of the major risks of anthropogenic climate change, our current knowledge of their dynamics involves a broad range of uncertainties, and so far …