Katy A. M. Gaythorpe
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View article: Financial risk protection from vaccines in 52 Gavi-eligible low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study
Financial risk protection from vaccines in 52 Gavi-eligible low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study Open
Background Poverty alleviation is a major global development goal. Vaccines have the potential to provide financial risk protection (FRP) by preventing illnesses and associated healthcare costs. We estimate the lifetime FRP benefits genera…
View article: Mechanistic yellow fever modelling under climate change in Brazil and beyond: Information gaps and future steps
Mechanistic yellow fever modelling under climate change in Brazil and beyond: Information gaps and future steps Open
Yellow fever (YF) remains a significant public health threat in tropical regions, particularly in South America and Africa. The combined forces of climate change, land-use, urbanisation, globalisation, and insufficient surveillance and hea…
View article: A framework to assess the risk of yellow fever emergence
A framework to assess the risk of yellow fever emergence Open
Background Yellow fever (YF) is a viral hemorrhagic fever transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Symptoms range from mild fever to severe complications such as jaundice and haemorrhages, which can be fatal. Martinique, a French island in…
View article: Evaluating the role of observational uncertainty in climate impact assessments: Temperature-driven yellow fever risk in South America
Evaluating the role of observational uncertainty in climate impact assessments: Temperature-driven yellow fever risk in South America Open
Global gridded temperature data sets (GGTDs) differ in data sources, quality control, generation methods, and spatial-temporal resolution, introducing observational uncertainty. This uncertainty is critical not only for studies on current …
View article: Priorities for modelling arbovirus transmission under climate change
Priorities for modelling arbovirus transmission under climate change Open
The transmission potential of arboviruses is extremely sensitive to environmental conditions. This sensitivity is due to both their intimate relationship with ectothermic vectors and, in many cases, also to the involvement of multiple host…
View article: Evaluation of the Performance and Utility of Global Gridded Precipitation Products for Health Applications and Impact Assessments in South America
Evaluation of the Performance and Utility of Global Gridded Precipitation Products for Health Applications and Impact Assessments in South America Open
Globally gridded precipitation products (GGPPs) are commonly used in impact assessments as substitutes for weather station data, each with unique strengths and limitations. Reanalysis products are among the most widely used for driving imp…
View article: Evaluating the role of observational uncertainty in climate impact assessments: Temperature-driven yellow fever risk in South America
Evaluating the role of observational uncertainty in climate impact assessments: Temperature-driven yellow fever risk in South America Open
Global gridded temperature data sets (GGTDs) vary in their information sources, quality control procedures, generation techniques, and spatial-temporal resolutions, introducing observational uncertainty. This uncertainty is critical not on…
View article: Evaluating the role of observational uncertainty in climate impact assessments: Temperature-driven yellow fever risk in South America
Evaluating the role of observational uncertainty in climate impact assessments: Temperature-driven yellow fever risk in South America Open
Global gridded temperature data sets (GGTDs) vary in their information sources, quality control procedures, generation techniques, and spatial-temporal resolutions, introducing observational uncertainty. This uncertainty is critical not on…
View article: Evaluation of the Performance and Utility of Global Gridded Precipitation Products for Health Applications and Impact Assessments in South America
Evaluation of the Performance and Utility of Global Gridded Precipitation Products for Health Applications and Impact Assessments in South America Open
View article: The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever
The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever Open
Arboviruses transmitted mainly by Aedes ( Stegomyia ) aegypti and Ae. albopictus , including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, and yellow fever virus in urban settings, pose an escalating global threat. Existing risk maps, often hampe…
View article: Why the growth of arboviral diseases necessitates a new generation of global risk maps and future projections
Why the growth of arboviral diseases necessitates a new generation of global risk maps and future projections Open
Global risk maps are an important tool for assessing the global threat of mosquito and tick-transmitted arboviral diseases. Public health officials increasingly rely on risk maps to understand the drivers of transmission, forecast spread, …
View article: How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination
How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination Open
View article: Timeliness of 24 childhood immunisations and evolution of vaccination delay: Analysis of data from 54 low- and middle-income countries
Timeliness of 24 childhood immunisations and evolution of vaccination delay: Analysis of data from 54 low- and middle-income countries Open
Vaccination timeliness is often not considered among standard performance indicators of routine vaccination programmes, such as vaccination coverage, yet quantifying vaccination delay could inform policies to promote in-time vaccination an…
View article: Assessing yellow fever outbreak potential and implications for vaccine strategy
Assessing yellow fever outbreak potential and implications for vaccine strategy Open
Yellow fever (YF), a vector-borne viral hemorrhagic fever, is endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America, with large vaccination programmes being used for control. However, significant outbreaks have occurred in recent years. …
View article: Mathematical modelling to inform outbreak response vaccination
Mathematical modelling to inform outbreak response vaccination Open
Mathematical models are established tools to assist in outbreak response. They help characterise complex patterns in disease spread, simulate control options to assist public health authorities in decision-making, and longer-term operation…
View article: Estimating the impact of vaccination: lessons learned in the first phase of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium
Estimating the impact of vaccination: lessons learned in the first phase of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium Open
Estimates of the global health impact of immunisation are important for quantifying historical benefits as well as planning future investments and strategy. The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC) was established in 2016 to provide …
View article: Yellow fever outbreak potential in Djibouti, Somalia and Yemen
Yellow fever outbreak potential in Djibouti, Somalia and Yemen Open
The importation of arbovirus diseases into countries where they are not currently endemic is a global concern, driven by human movement and direct and indirect climate change effects. In the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean …
View article: The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever
The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever Open
Arboviruses transmitted mainly by Aedes (Stegomiya) aegypti and Ae. albopictus in urban settings, including dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and yellow fever viruses, pose an escalating global threat. Existing risk maps, often hampered by survei…
View article: COVID-19 related disruption and resilience in immunisation activities in LMICs: a rapid review
COVID-19 related disruption and resilience in immunisation activities in LMICs: a rapid review Open
Objectives We conducted a rapid review to determine the extent that immunisation services in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) were disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic and synthesised the factors that can be used to build resil…
View article: Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization
Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization Open
View article: Evaluating the risk of conflict on recent Ebola outbreaks in Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Evaluating the risk of conflict on recent Ebola outbreaks in Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo Open
Background Reducing Ebola virus transmission relies on the ability to identify cases and limit contact with infected bodily fluids through biosecurity, safe sex practices, safe burial and vaccination. Armed conflicts can complicate outbrea…
View article: Estimating the health effects of COVID-19-related immunisation disruptions in 112 countries during 2020–30: a modelling study
Estimating the health effects of COVID-19-related immunisation disruptions in 112 countries during 2020–30: a modelling study Open
View article: Assessing yellow fever outbreak potential and implications for vaccine strategy
Assessing yellow fever outbreak potential and implications for vaccine strategy Open
Background: Yellow fever (YF), a vector-borne viral hemorrhagic fever, is endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America, with large vaccination programmes being used for control. However, significant outbreaks have occurred in re…
View article: Vaccine Contributions to Reductions in Childhood Mortality: Quantifying 50 Years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization
Vaccine Contributions to Reductions in Childhood Mortality: Quantifying 50 Years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization Open
View article: Assessing yellow fever outbreak potential and implications for vaccine strategy
Assessing yellow fever outbreak potential and implications for vaccine strategy Open
Background Yellow fever (YF), a vector-borne viral hemorrhagic fever, is endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America, with large vaccination programmes being used for control. However, significant outbreaks have occurred in rec…
View article: Author Correction: Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England
Author Correction: Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England Open
View article: Evaluating effective measles vaccine coverage in the Malaysian population accounting for between-dose correlation and vaccine efficacy
Evaluating effective measles vaccine coverage in the Malaysian population accounting for between-dose correlation and vaccine efficacy Open
View article: A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk
A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk Open
View article: Population-Level Risk Factors Related to Measles Case Fatality: A Conceptual Framework Based on Expert Consultation and Literature Review
Population-Level Risk Factors Related to Measles Case Fatality: A Conceptual Framework Based on Expert Consultation and Literature Review Open
A better understanding of population-level factors related to measles case fatality is needed to estimate measles mortality burden and impact of interventions such as vaccination. This study aimed to develop a conceptual framework of mecha…
View article: Modeling the impact of vaccination for the immunization Agenda 2030: Deaths averted due to vaccination against 14 pathogens in 194 countries from 2021 to 2030
Modeling the impact of vaccination for the immunization Agenda 2030: Deaths averted due to vaccination against 14 pathogens in 194 countries from 2021 to 2030 Open
The results from this global analysis demonstrate the substantial potential mortality reductions achievable if the IA2030 targets are met by 2030. Deaths caused by vaccine preventable diseases disproportionately affect LMICs in the African…