Kent H. Knopfmeier
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View article: Evaluation of 0–6-Hour Forecasts from the Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System and the Hybrid Analysis and Forecast System for Real-Time Cases in 2021
Evaluation of 0–6-Hour Forecasts from the Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System and the Hybrid Analysis and Forecast System for Real-Time Cases in 2021 Open
This study compares real-time forecasts produced by the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) and a hybrid ensemble and variational data assimilation and prediction system (WoF-Hybrid) for 31 events during 2021. Object-based verification is used …
View article: Interpreting Warn-on-Forecast System Guidance, Part I: Review of Probabilistic Guidance Concepts, Product Design, and Best Practices
Interpreting Warn-on-Forecast System Guidance, Part I: Review of Probabilistic Guidance Concepts, Product Design, and Best Practices Open
The Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) is a convection-allowing ensemble prediction system designed to primarily provide guidance on thunderstorm hazards from the meso-beta to storm-scale in space and from several hours to less than one hour i…
View article: Warn-on-Forecast System: From Vision to Reality
Warn-on-Forecast System: From Vision to Reality Open
In 2009, advancements in NWP and computing power inspired a vision to advance hazardous weather warnings from a warn-on-detection to a warn-on-forecast paradigm. This vision would require not only the prediction of individual thunderstorms…
View article: The First Hybrid NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment for Advancing Severe Weather Prediction
The First Hybrid NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment for Advancing Severe Weather Prediction Open
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View article: The NOAA Weather Prediction Center’s Use and Evaluation of Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System Guidance
The NOAA Weather Prediction Center’s Use and Evaluation of Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System Guidance Open
This study examines use of experimental Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) guidance for short-term flash flood prediction at the NOAA Weather Prediction Center’s Meteorological Watch (Metwatch) desk. The WoFS guidance provides storm-scale ense…
View article: The Third Real-Time, Virtual Spring Forecasting Experiment to Advance Severe Weather Prediction Capabilities
The Third Real-Time, Virtual Spring Forecasting Experiment to Advance Severe Weather Prediction Capabilities Open
The 2022 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment (2022 SFE) was held 2 May–3 June 2022, marking the third consecutive year of virtual SFEs. We expect this to be the last year of fully virtual experiments with a transit…
View article: Short-Term Prediction of a Nocturnal Significant Tornado Outbreak Using a Convection-Allowing Ensemble
Short-Term Prediction of a Nocturnal Significant Tornado Outbreak Using a Convection-Allowing Ensemble Open
A multiscale analysis of the significant nocturnal tornado outbreak in Tennessee on 2–3 March 2020 is presented. This outbreak included several significant tornadoes and resulted in the second most fatalities (25) and most injuries (309) o…
View article: The Second Real-Time, Virtual Spring Forecasting Experiment to Advance Severe Weather Prediction
The Second Real-Time, Virtual Spring Forecasting Experiment to Advance Severe Weather Prediction Open
The 2021 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment (2021 SFE) was held virtually 3 May–4 June 2021. SFEs are co-led by the NWS/Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), and test new …
View article: Exploring the Watch-to-Warning Space: Experimental Outlook Performance during the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed
Exploring the Watch-to-Warning Space: Experimental Outlook Performance during the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed Open
During the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed, two NWS forecasters issued experimental probabilistic forecasts of hail, tornadoes, and severe convective wind using NSSL’s Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS). …
View article: A Real-Time, Virtual Spring Forecasting Experiment to Advance Severe Weather Prediction
A Real-Time, Virtual Spring Forecasting Experiment to Advance Severe Weather Prediction Open
The NWS/Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) co-led the 2020 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment (2020 SFE) virtually to evaluate new convection-allowing models (CAMs) and …
View article: Effects of Horizontal Grid Spacing and Inflow Environment on Forecasts of Cyclic Mesocyclogenesis in NSSL’s Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS)
Effects of Horizontal Grid Spacing and Inflow Environment on Forecasts of Cyclic Mesocyclogenesis in NSSL’s Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) Open
Cyclic mesocyclogenesis is the process by which a supercell produces multiple mesocyclones with similar life cycles. The frequency of cyclic mesocyclogenesis has been linked to tornado potential, with higher frequencies decreasing the pote…
View article: Postprocessing Next-Day Ensemble Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Using Random Forests
Postprocessing Next-Day Ensemble Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Using Random Forests Open
Most ensembles suffer from underdispersion and systematic biases. One way to correct for these shortcomings is via machine learning (ML), which is advantageous due to its ability to identify and correct nonlinear biases. This study uses a …
View article: Test of a Weather-Adaptive Dual-Resolution Hybrid Warn-on-Forecast Analysis and Forecast System for Several Severe Weather Events
Test of a Weather-Adaptive Dual-Resolution Hybrid Warn-on-Forecast Analysis and Forecast System for Several Severe Weather Events Open
A real-time, weather adaptive, dual-resolution, hybrid Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) analysis and forecast system using the WRF-ARW forecast model has been developed and implemented. The system includes two components, an ensemble analysis and fo…
View article: Object-Based Verification of Short-Term, Storm-Scale Probabilistic Mesocyclone Guidance from an Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System
Object-Based Verification of Short-Term, Storm-Scale Probabilistic Mesocyclone Guidance from an Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System Open
An object-based verification method for short-term, storm-scale probabilistic forecasts was developed and applied to mesocyclone guidance produced by the experimental Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) in 63 cases from 2017 to 2018. The probab…
View article: Forecasting High-Impact Weather in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Using a Warn-on-Forecast System
Forecasting High-Impact Weather in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Using a Warn-on-Forecast System Open
Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the greatest natural threats to life and property in the United States, since they can produce multiple hazards associated with convective storms over a wide region. Of these hazards, tornadoes…
View article: Comparison of Cloud Microphysics Schemes in a Warn-on-Forecast System Using Synthetic Satellite Objects
Comparison of Cloud Microphysics Schemes in a Warn-on-Forecast System Using Synthetic Satellite Objects Open
Forecasts of high-impact weather conditions using convection-allowing numerical weather prediction models have been found to be highly sensitive to the selection of cloud microphysics scheme used within the system. The Warn-on-Forecast (Wo…
View article: Object-Based Verification of a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System
Object-Based Verification of a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System Open
An object-based verification methodology for the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles (NEWS-e) has been developed and applied to 32 cases between December 2015 and June 2017. NEWS-e forecast objects of composite reflecti…