Kerry Emanuel
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View article: Climate change impacts on tropical cyclone–induced power outage risk: Sociodemographic differences in outage burdens
Climate change impacts on tropical cyclone–induced power outage risk: Sociodemographic differences in outage burdens Open
This research investigates the projected risks of future climate trends on tropical cyclone–induced power outages in the Gulf and Atlantic coast of the United States, focusing on the disproportionate impacts on vulnerable populations and t…
View article: Multi‐Centennial Spatial Coherency Among Atlantic Tropical Cyclones From Simulated and Reconstructed Storm Records
Multi‐Centennial Spatial Coherency Among Atlantic Tropical Cyclones From Simulated and Reconstructed Storm Records Open
Proxy‐based reconstructions of long‐term Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) variability reveal low‐frequency oscillations in regional TC landfalls over the Common Era. However, the limited spatial coverage and increased uncertainty of the prox…
View article: CYCLOPs: a Unified Framework for Surface Flux-Driven Cyclones Outside the Tropics
CYCLOPs: a Unified Framework for Surface Flux-Driven Cyclones Outside the Tropics Open
Cyclonic storms resembling tropical cyclones are sometimes observed well outside the tropics. These include medicanes, polar lows, subtropical cyclones, Kona storms, and possibly some cases of Australian East Coast Lows. Their structural s…
View article: Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II)
Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II) Open
This paper describes the climate-related forcings (CRFs) provided within the 'b' part of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b). While ISIMIP3a comprises historical impact models si…
View article: A framework for testing tropical cyclone hazard models
A framework for testing tropical cyclone hazard models Open
The field of tropical cyclone (TC) hazard modeling is in the midst of a rapid transition away from purely statistical techniques based on historical events to more physics-based approaches that can better account for the climate change tha…
View article: Navigating and attributing uncertainty in future tropical cyclone risk estimates
Navigating and attributing uncertainty in future tropical cyclone risk estimates Open
Future tropical cyclone risks will evolve with climate change and socioeconomic development, entailing substantial uncertainties. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of these risks is vital, yet the chosen model setup influences outcom…
View article: Tipping the AMOC: Impacts of Tropical Cyclones in a Changing Climate
Tipping the AMOC: Impacts of Tropical Cyclones in a Changing Climate Open
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is one of the most critical tipping elements in Earth’s climate system, with its collapse posing far-reaching implications for weather dynamics and extremes, sea level rise, and …
View article: Physics‐Based Hazard Assessment of Compound Flooding From Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate
Physics‐Based Hazard Assessment of Compound Flooding From Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate Open
Recent efforts to assess coastal compound surge and rainfall‐driven flooding hazard from tropical (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) in a warming climate have intensified. However, challenges persist in gaining actionable insights int…
View article: A Unified Framework for Surface Flux-Driven Cyclones Outside the Tropics
A Unified Framework for Surface Flux-Driven Cyclones Outside the Tropics Open
Cyclonic storms resembling tropical cyclones are sometimes observed well outside the tropics. These include medicanes, polar lows, subtropical cyclones, Kona storms, and possibly some cases of Australian East Coast cyclones. Their structur…
View article: Origins of Extreme CAPE Around the World
Origins of Extreme CAPE Around the World Open
Severe convection, responsible for hazards such as tornadoes, flash floods, and hail, is usually preceded by abundant convective available potential energy (CAPE). In this work, we use a Lagrangian approach to study the buildup of anomalou…
View article: Atlantic ocean circulation slowdown intensifies tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic
Atlantic ocean circulation slowdown intensifies tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Open
The slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is ubiquitous in climate projections, representing a major risk of global warming with far-reaching climatic impacts. Here, we investigate how the future AMOC slowdown …
View article: TC‐GEN: Data‐Driven Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Using Machine Learning‐Based High‐Resolution Weather Model
TC‐GEN: Data‐Driven Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Using Machine Learning‐Based High‐Resolution Weather Model Open
Synthetic downscaling of tropical cyclones (TCs) is critically important to estimate the long‐term hazard of rare high‐impact storm events. Existing downscaling approaches rely on statistical or statistical‐deterministic models that are ca…
View article: A Proxy System Modeling Approach to Combining Tree‐Ring and Sediment‐Based Paleotempestological Records
A Proxy System Modeling Approach to Combining Tree‐Ring and Sediment‐Based Paleotempestological Records Open
The short and biased observational record of tropical cyclones (TCs) limits scientific understanding of how these destructive storms respond to climate forcing. Paleohurricane records use natural archives (tree rings, coarse‐grained sedime…
View article: Eye Formation and Energetics in a Dry Model of Hurricane-Like Vortices
Eye Formation and Energetics in a Dry Model of Hurricane-Like Vortices Open
We investigate the mechanism for eye formation in hurricane-like vortices, using a formulation adapted from Oruba, Davidson, and Dormy. Numerical simulations are performed using an axisymmetric model of dry rotating Rayleigh–Bénard convect…
View article: Cyclone Jasper’s rains in the context of climate change
Cyclone Jasper’s rains in the context of climate change Open
Cyclone Jasper struck northern Queensland in mid-December, 2023, causing extensive flooding stemming from torrential rain. Many stations reported rainfall totals exceeding 1 m, and a few surpassed 2 m, possibly making Jasper the wettest tr…
View article: Navigating uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of future tropical cyclone risk estimates
Navigating uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of future tropical cyclone risk estimates Open
Future tropical cyclone risks will evolve depending on climate change and socio-economic development, entailing significant uncertainties. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of future tropical cyclone risks is thus vital for robust de…
View article: Choose Your Model Wisely: Navigating Uncertainties in Future Global Tropical Cyclone Risks
Choose Your Model Wisely: Navigating Uncertainties in Future Global Tropical Cyclone Risks Open
Future tropical cyclone risks will evolve depending on climate change and socio-economic development, entailing significant uncertainties. A comprehensive uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of future tropical cyclone risk changes is thus…
View article: Why the lower stratosphere cools when the troposphere warms
Why the lower stratosphere cools when the troposphere warms Open
Observational data have long suggested that in the tropics, when the troposphere locally warms, the lower stratosphere locally cools. Here, the observed anti-correlation between tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature is confirmed…
View article: Physics-based Risk Assessment of Compound Flooding from Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate
Physics-based Risk Assessment of Compound Flooding from Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate Open
In recent years, efforts to assess the evolving risks of coastal compound surge and rainfall-driven flooding from tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) in a warming climate have intensified. While substantial progress h…
View article: Climate Change Contributions to Increasing Compound Flooding Risk in New York City
Climate Change Contributions to Increasing Compound Flooding Risk in New York City Open
Efforts to meaningfully quantify the changes in coastal compound surge- and rainfall-driven flooding hazard associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) in a warming climate have increased in recent years. Desp…
View article: TC-GEN: Data-driven Tropical Cyclone Downscaling using Machine Learning-Based High-resolution Weather Model
TC-GEN: Data-driven Tropical Cyclone Downscaling using Machine Learning-Based High-resolution Weather Model Open
Synthetic downscaling of tropical cyclones (TCs) is critically important to estimate the long-term hazard of rare high-impact storm events. Existing downscaling approaches rely on statistical or statistical-deterministic models that are ca…
View article: Integrating Climatological‐Hydrodynamic Modeling and Paleohurricane Records to Assess Storm Surge Risk
Integrating Climatological‐Hydrodynamic Modeling and Paleohurricane Records to Assess Storm Surge Risk Open
Sediment cores from blue holes have emerged as a promising tool for extending the record of long‐term tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, interpreting this archive is challenging because storm surge depends on many parameters includin…
View article: The Weather–Climate Schism
The Weather–Climate Schism Open
The atmospheric science community includes both weather and climate scientists. These two groups interact much less than they should, particularly in the United States. The schism is widespread and has persisted for 50 years or more. It is…
View article: Bangladesh's Amplified Coastal Storm Tide Hazard from Tropical Cyclones and Rising Sea Levels in a Warming Climate
Bangladesh's Amplified Coastal Storm Tide Hazard from Tropical Cyclones and Rising Sea Levels in a Warming Climate Open
The risk of extreme storm tides to Bangladesh's low-lying and densely populated coastal regions, already vulnerable to tropical cyclones, remains poorly quantified under a warming climate. Here, using a statistical-physical downscaling app…