Keshav Dogra
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View article: Tradeoffs for the Poor, Divine Coincidence for the Rich
Tradeoffs for the Poor, Divine Coincidence for the Rich Open
We use an estimated medium-scale HANK model to investigate how the tradeoff between stabilizing inflation and consumption volatility varies for households with different levels of wealth. Consumption for the rich is mostly affected by dema…
View article: The Nonlinear Case Against Leaning Against the Wind
The Nonlinear Case Against Leaning Against the Wind Open
We re-examine the relationship between monetary policy and financial stability in a setting that allows for nonlinear, time-varying relationships between monetary policy, financial stability, and macroeconomic outcomes. Using novel machine…
View article: Paradoxes and Problems in the Causal Interpretation of Equilibrium Economics
Paradoxes and Problems in the Causal Interpretation of Equilibrium Economics Open
Equilibrium assumptions posit relations between different people's beliefs and behavior without describing a process that causes these relations to hold. I show that because equilibrium models do not describe a causal process whereby one e…
View article: The New York Fed DSGE Model: A Post-Covid Assessment
The New York Fed DSGE Model: A Post-Covid Assessment Open
We document the real-time forecasting performance for output and inflation of the New York Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model since 2011. We find the DSGE's accuracy to be comparable to that of private forecasters befo…
View article: Capital Management and Wealth Inequality
Capital Management and Wealth Inequality Open
Wealthier individuals have stronger incentives to seek higher returns. We investigate the effect that this has on long-run wealth inequality. Incorporating capital management into a standard Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model generates substantial…
View article: Estimating HANK for Central Banks
Estimating HANK for Central Banks Open
We provide a toolkit for efficient online estimation of heterogeneous agent (HA) New Keynesian (NK) models based on Sequential Monte Carlo methods. We use this toolkit to compare the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of a prominent HANK m…
View article: Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK
Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK Open
We study optimal monetary policy in an analytically tractable heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model with rich cross-sectional heterogeneity. Optimal policy differs from a representative agent benchmark because monetary policy can affect …
View article: Estimates of cost-price passthrough from business survey data
Estimates of cost-price passthrough from business survey data Open
We examine businesses' price-setting practices via open-ended interviews and in a quantitative survey module with business contacts from the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Cleveland, and New York in December 2022 and January 2023. Busin…
View article: Estimates of cost-price passthrough from business survey data
Estimates of cost-price passthrough from business survey data Open
We examine businesses' price-setting practices via open-ended interviews and in a quantitative survey module with business contacts from the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Cleveland, and New York in December 2022 and January 2023. Busin…
View article: The Financial Origins of Non-Fundamental Risk
The Financial Origins of Non-Fundamental Risk Open
We formalize the idea that the financial sector can be a source of non-fundamental risk. Households' desire to hedge against price volatility can generate price volatility in equilibrium, even absent fundamental risk. Fearing that asset pr…
View article: Slow Recoveries and Unemployment Traps: Monetary Policy in a Time of Hysteresis*
Slow Recoveries and Unemployment Traps: Monetary Policy in a Time of Hysteresis* Open
We analyse monetary policy in a model where temporary shocks can permanently scar the economy’s productive capacity. Workers lose skill while unemployed and are costly to retrain, generating multiple steady-state unemployment rates. Follow…
View article: The Side Effects of Safe Asset Creation
The Side Effects of Safe Asset Creation Open
We present an incomplete markets model to understand the costs and benefits of increasing government debt when an increased demand for safety pushes the natural rate of interest below zero. A higher demand for safe assets causes the zero l…
View article: Escaping Unemployment Traps
Escaping Unemployment Traps Open
We present a model in which temporary shocks can permanently scar the economy's productive capacity. Unemployed workers lose skill and are expensive to retrain, generating multiple steady state unemployment rates. Large temporary shocks pu…