Kylie E. C. Ainslie
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View article: Evaluating the association between COVID-19 transmission and mobility in Omicron outbreaks in China
Evaluating the association between COVID-19 transmission and mobility in Omicron outbreaks in China Open
Background Prior research has suggested a positive correlation between human mobility and COVID-19 transmission at national or provincial levels, assuming constant correlations during outbreaks. However, the correlation strength at finer s…
View article: Prior infections and effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in test-negative studies: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Prior infections and effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in test-negative studies: a systematic review and meta-analysis Open
Prior infection with SARS-CoV-2 can provide protection against infection and severe COVID-19. We aimed to determine the impact of preexisting immunity on vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates. We systematically reviewed and meta-analyzed 66…
View article: An open source tool to infer epidemiological and immunological dynamics from serological data: Serosolver
An open source tool to infer epidemiological and immunological dynamics from serological data: Serosolver Open
We present a flexible, open source R package designed to obtain biological and epidemiological insights from serological datasets. Characterising past exposures for multi-strain pathogens poses a specific statistical challenge: observed an…
View article: Ethical frameworks should be applied to computational modelling of infectious disease interventions
Ethical frameworks should be applied to computational modelling of infectious disease interventions Open
This perspective is part of an international effort to improve epidemiological models with the goal of reducing the unintended consequences of infectious disease interventions. The scenarios in which models are applied often involve diffic…
View article: Reflections On Epidemiological Modeling To Inform Policy During The COVID-19 Pandemic In Western Europe, 2020–23
Reflections On Epidemiological Modeling To Inform Policy During The COVID-19 Pandemic In Western Europe, 2020–23 Open
We reflect on epidemiological modeling conducted throughout the COVID-19 pandemic in Western Europe, specifically in Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Western Europe was initially one o…
View article: Inferring vaccine efficacy and mode of action from human challenge studies
Inferring vaccine efficacy and mode of action from human challenge studies Open
To assess the long-term effect of a vaccination programme, understanding both the efficacy and the mode of action of the vaccine is crucial. The actual mode of action is difficult to infer from field trials, because of the heterogeneity of…
View article: The need for a clinical case definition in test-negative design studies estimating vaccine effectiveness
The need for a clinical case definition in test-negative design studies estimating vaccine effectiveness Open
Test negative studies have been used extensively for the estimation of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE). Such studies are able to estimate VE against medically-attended illness under certain assumptions. Selection bias may be present if…
View article: Health inequalities in SARS-CoV-2 infection during the second wave in England: REACT-1 study
Health inequalities in SARS-CoV-2 infection during the second wave in England: REACT-1 study Open
Background The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection caused high levels of hospitalisation and deaths in late 2020 and early 2021 during the second wave in England. Severe disease during this period was associated with marked health inequal…
View article: Characterising information gains and losses when collecting multiple epidemic model outputs
Characterising information gains and losses when collecting multiple epidemic model outputs Open
Background Collaborative comparisons and combinations of epidemic models are used as policy-relevant evidence during epidemic outbreaks. In the process of collecting multiple model projections, such collaborations may gain or lose relevant…
View article: Revisiting assumptions in test-negative studies for estimating vaccine effectiveness: the need for a clinical case definition
Revisiting assumptions in test-negative studies for estimating vaccine effectiveness: the need for a clinical case definition Open
Test negative studies have been used extensively for the estimation of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE). Such studies are able to estimate VE against medically-attended illness under certain assumptions. Selection bias may be present if…
View article: Time Scales of Human Mpox Transmission in The Netherlands
Time Scales of Human Mpox Transmission in The Netherlands Open
Mpox has spread rapidly to many countries in nonendemic regions. After reviewing detailed exposure histories of 109 pairs of mpox cases in the Netherlands, we identified 34 pairs where transmission was likely and the infectee reported a si…
View article: Time scales of human mpox transmission in the Netherlands
Time scales of human mpox transmission in the Netherlands Open
Mpox has spread rapidly to many countries in non-endemic regions. After reviewing detailed exposure histories of 109 pairs of mpox cases in the Netherlands, we identified 34 pairs where transmission was likely and the infectee reported a s…
View article: Trends in SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence during England’s roadmap out of lockdown, January to July 2021
Trends in SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence during England’s roadmap out of lockdown, January to July 2021 Open
Background Following rapidly rising COVID-19 case numbers, England entered a national lockdown on 6 January 2021, with staged relaxations of restrictions from 8 March 2021 onwards. Aim We characterise how the lockdown and subsequent easing…
View article: Prior infections and effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in test-negative study: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Prior infections and effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in test-negative study: A systematic review and meta-analysis Open
Background Prior infection with SARS-CoV-2 can provide protection against infection and severe COVID-19. In settings with high pre-existing immunity, vaccine effectiveness (VE) should decrease with higher levels of immunity among unvaccina…
View article: A scenario modelling analysis to anticipate the impact of COVID-19 vaccination in adolescents and children on disease outcomes in the Netherlands, summer 2021
A scenario modelling analysis to anticipate the impact of COVID-19 vaccination in adolescents and children on disease outcomes in the Netherlands, summer 2021 Open
Background Since the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in late 2020 and throughout 2021, European governments have relied on mathematical modelling to inform policy decisions about COVID-19 vaccination. Aim We present a scenario-based modellin…
View article: Trends in SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence during England’s roadmap out of lockdown, January to July 2021
Trends in SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence during England’s roadmap out of lockdown, January to July 2021 Open
Background Following rapidly rising COVID-19 case numbers, England entered a national lockdown on 6 January 2021, with staged relaxations of restrictions from 8 March 2021 onwards. Aim We characterise how the lockdown and subsequent easing…
View article: Is annual vaccination best? A modelling study of influenza vaccination strategies in children
Is annual vaccination best? A modelling study of influenza vaccination strategies in children Open
Many countries include annual vaccination of children against influenza in their vaccination programs. In the United Kingdom (UK), annual vaccination of children aged of 2 to 10 against influenza is recommended. However, little research ha…
View article: Characterising the persistence of RT-PCR positivity and incidence in a community survey of SARS-CoV-2
Characterising the persistence of RT-PCR positivity and incidence in a community survey of SARS-CoV-2 Open
Background:The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study has provided unbiased estimates of swab-positivity in England approximately monthly since May 2020 using RT-PCR testing of self-administered throat and nose sw…