Jennifer L. Catto
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View article: Compound weather systems of cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms in global reanalysis
Compound weather systems of cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms in global reanalysis Open
Many studies have examined the climatology of individual types of impactful weather systems such as cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms, with some recent studies also considering compound weather systems where more than one type occur at th…
View article: The impact of Arctic sea‐ice loss on winter weather in the British Isles
The impact of Arctic sea‐ice loss on winter weather in the British Isles Open
We use simulations from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project to understand the impact of Arctic sea‐ice loss in isolation, as well as within the context of general greenhouse warming, on projections of wintertime weather f…
View article: Developing and evaluating a Bayesian weather generator for UK precipitation conditioned on discrete storm types
Developing and evaluating a Bayesian weather generator for UK precipitation conditioned on discrete storm types Open
Weather generators (WGs) are important tools for downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) output for climate impact modelling. This study introduces a precipitation WG conditioned on a recent storm types dataset and outlines a methodolo…
View article: The role of Mediterranean cyclone structure in modulating convective activity
The role of Mediterranean cyclone structure in modulating convective activity Open
Deep convection in the Mediterranean is favoured by warm sea surface temperatures and complex topography, but its occurrence is further modulated by synoptic-scale systems such as Mediterranean cyclones (MEDCs). In this study we investigat…
View article: The Tug-of-War on the Storm Tracks between Sea Ice Loss and Ocean Warming Is Mainly an Atlantic Phenomenon
The Tug-of-War on the Storm Tracks between Sea Ice Loss and Ocean Warming Is Mainly an Atlantic Phenomenon Open
The effects of Arctic sea ice loss or global ocean surface warming on the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and jet streams in boreal winter are examined using simulations from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. The Atla…
View article: Catastrophe risk models as quantitative tools for climate change loss and damage: A demonstration for flood in Malawi, Vietnam, and the Philippines
Catastrophe risk models as quantitative tools for climate change loss and damage: A demonstration for flood in Malawi, Vietnam, and the Philippines Open
Climate change loss and damage is a critical part of the international climate policy framework, addressing the residual climate impacts that cannot be avoided through mitigation or adaptation, which disproportionately affect vulnerable co…
View article: Investigating the inability of climate models to reproduce observed increases in summer Greenland Blocking
Investigating the inability of climate models to reproduce observed increases in summer Greenland Blocking Open
Summertime atmospheric blocking over Greenland promotes melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which is known to be a major contributor to sea level rise. In the early twenty-first century, strong, persistent Greenland blocking was observed, …
View article: Convective environments and hazards in Mediterranean cyclones
Convective environments and hazards in Mediterranean cyclones Open
In the Mediterranean region the presence of warm sea surface temperatures and of complex topography favour per se the development of deep convection. This study shows how the presence of Mediterranean cyclones (MEDCs) further enhances the …
View article: Using seasonal forecasts to enhance our understanding of extreme wind and precipitation impacts from extratropical cyclones
Using seasonal forecasts to enhance our understanding of extreme wind and precipitation impacts from extratropical cyclones Open
Considerable effort is spent at insurance and reinsurance companies to estimate the risk posed by extratropical cyclones (ETCs). Among these risks, strong near surface wind speeds and heavy precipitation can be particularly damaging, threa…
View article: Western Mediterranean Droughts Fostered by Arctic Sea Ice Loss
Western Mediterranean Droughts Fostered by Arctic Sea Ice Loss Open
Cutoff lows (COLs), defined as isolated midtropospheric low pressure systems, are responsible for a large fraction of the annual mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean Sea region. In this study, we quantify the impacts from …
View article: Mediterranean Cyclones in a Changing Climate: A Review on Their Socio‐Economic Impacts
Mediterranean Cyclones in a Changing Climate: A Review on Their Socio‐Economic Impacts Open
The Mediterranean Basin, renowned for its cultural, ecological, and climatic significance, frequently endures high‐impact weather events driven by Mediterranean cyclones (Medcyclones), atmospheric low‐pressure systems characterized by coun…
View article: Convective Environments Within Mediterranean Cyclones
Convective Environments Within Mediterranean Cyclones Open
Mediterranean cyclones can trigger severe weather hazards, including convective precipitation, lightning and hail, with implications for operational forecasting, risk assessment in the insurance industry, and societal preparedness. This wo…
View article: Understanding the environmental characteristics of frontal precipitation
Understanding the environmental characteristics of frontal precipitation Open
Climatological studies have marked the important role of atmospheric fronts in the hydroclimate and water cycle of the Earth system, especially in the mid-latitudes. Precipitation associated with fronts is highly affected by the (spatially…
View article: Mesoscale convective systems over South America: Representation in km-scale climate simulations and future change
Mesoscale convective systems over South America: Representation in km-scale climate simulations and future change Open
South America is highly vulnerable to storms and extreme precipitation. Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs), a prevalent storm type in tropical and subtropical South America, can be particularly damaging due to the organised, deep convecti…
View article: Quantifying the risk of unprecedented Antarctic heatwaves
Quantifying the risk of unprecedented Antarctic heatwaves Open
It has been widely documented that the East Antarctic heatwave (EAH) in March 2022 featured some of the largest positive temperature anomalies ever recorded anywhere on Earth. The heatwave was extraordinary in both extent and magnitude, wh…
View article: Missing Increase in Summer Greenland Blocking in Climate Models
Missing Increase in Summer Greenland Blocking in Climate Models Open
Atmospheric blocking events in summer over Greenland promote melting of the Greenland ice sheet, a major contributor to sea level rise. Recent observations indicate that, during the early part of the twenty-first century, summertime atmosp…
View article: Incomplete Arctic sea-ice Recovery under CO2 Removal and its Effects on the Winter Atmospheric Circulation
Incomplete Arctic sea-ice Recovery under CO2 Removal and its Effects on the Winter Atmospheric Circulation Open
This study explores the response of Arctic sea ice to CO2 removal and its subsequent effects on the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. Using multimodel ensembles from the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Projec…
View article: Incomplete Arctic Sea‐Ice Recovery Under CO<sub>2</sub> Removal and Its Effects on the Winter Atmospheric Circulation
Incomplete Arctic Sea‐Ice Recovery Under CO<sub>2</sub> Removal and Its Effects on the Winter Atmospheric Circulation Open
This study explores the response of Arctic sea ice to CO 2 removal and its subsequent effects on the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. Using multimodel ensembles from the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Proje…
View article: Co‐Occurring Atmospheric Features and Their Contributions to Precipitation Extremes
Co‐Occurring Atmospheric Features and Their Contributions to Precipitation Extremes Open
Object‐based identification algorithms for atmospheric features are commonly utilized to attribute global precipitation. This study employs a systematic approach to examine feature co‐occurrences and their relationships to mean and extreme…
View article: Catastrophe risk models as quantitative tools for climate change loss and damage: A demonstration for flood in Malawi, Vietnam, and the Philippines
Catastrophe risk models as quantitative tools for climate change loss and damage: A demonstration for flood in Malawi, Vietnam, and the Philippines Open
Climate change loss and damage is a critical part of the international climate policy framework,addressing the residual climate impacts that cannot be avoided through mitigation or adaptation,which disproportionately affect vulnerable comm…
View article: Convective environments within Mediterranean cyclones
Convective environments within Mediterranean cyclones Open
Understanding convective processes leading to severe weather hazards within Mediterranean cyclones is relevant for operational forecasters, insurance industry, and enhancing societal preparedness. In this work we examine the climatological…
Greenland summer blocking characteristics: an evaluation of a high-resolution multi-model ensemble Open
Atmospheric blocking is a phenomenon that can lead to extreme weather events over a large region, yet its causes are not fully understood. Global climate models show limitations in representing Northern Hemisphere blocking, especially its …
View article: Comparing the Atmospheric Responses to Reduced Arctic Sea Ice, a Warmer Ocean, and Increased CO2 and Their Contributions to Projected Change at 2°C Global Warming
Comparing the Atmospheric Responses to Reduced Arctic Sea Ice, a Warmer Ocean, and Increased CO2 and Their Contributions to Projected Change at 2°C Global Warming Open
We consider the combined and individual influences of Arctic sea ice loss, sea surface temperature (SST) warming, and the direct radiative effect of increased CO 2 on the Northern Hemispheric climate. The surface climate (e.g., temperature…
View article: Emerging signals of climate change from the equator to the poles: new insights into a warming world
Emerging signals of climate change from the equator to the poles: new insights into a warming world Open
The reality of human-induced climate change is unequivocal and exerts an ever-increasing global impact. Access to the latest scientific information on current climate change and projection of future trends is important for planning adaptat…
View article: A storm-relative climatology of compound hazards in Mediterranean cyclones
A storm-relative climatology of compound hazards in Mediterranean cyclones Open
Cyclones are responsible for much of the weather damage in the Mediterranean region, and while their association with individual weather hazards is well understood, their association with multivariate compound hazards remains to be quantif…
View article: Objective identification of meteorological fronts and climatologies from ERA-Interim and ERA5
Objective identification of meteorological fronts and climatologies from ERA-Interim and ERA5 Open
Meteorological fronts are important due to their associated surface impacts, including extreme precipitation and extreme winds. Objective identification of fronts is therefore of interest in both operational weather prediction and research…
View article: Linking compound weather extremes to Mediterranean cyclones, fronts, and airstreams
Linking compound weather extremes to Mediterranean cyclones, fronts, and airstreams Open
Mediterranean cyclones are the primary driver of many types of surface weather extremes in the Mediterranean region, the association with extreme rainfall being the most established. The large-scale characteristics of a Mediterranean cyclo…