Lawrence H. Summers
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View article: The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly
The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly Open
Unemployment is low and inflation is falling, but consumer sentiment remains depressed.This has confounded economists, who historically rely on these two variables to gauge how consumers feel about the economy.We propose that borrowing cos…
View article: Replication package for: Negative Nominal Interest Rates and The Bank Lending Channel
Replication package for: Negative Nominal Interest Rates and The Bank Lending Channel Open
Package contains replication kit for "Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel", including both replication of the empirical results and the theoretical simulations.
View article: Replication package for: Negative Nominal Interest Rates and The Bank Lending Channel
Replication package for: Negative Nominal Interest Rates and The Bank Lending Channel Open
Package contains replication kit for "Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel", including both replication of the empirical results and the theoretical simulations.
View article: Replication package for: Negative Nominal Interest Rates and The Bank Lending Channel
Replication package for: Negative Nominal Interest Rates and The Bank Lending Channel Open
Package contains replication kit for "Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel", including both replication of the empirical results and the theoretical simulations.
View article: Replication package for: Negative Nominal Interest Rates and The Bank Lending Channel
Replication package for: Negative Nominal Interest Rates and The Bank Lending Channel Open
Package contains replication kit for "Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel", including both replication of the empirical results and the theoretical simulations.
View article: Comparing Past and Present Inflation
Comparing Past and Present Inflation Open
There have been important methodological changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over time. These distort comparisons of inflation from different periods, which have become more prevalent as inflation has risen to 40-year highs. To bette…
View article: The Coming Rise in Residential Inflation
The Coming Rise in Residential Inflation Open
We study how the recent run-up in housing and rental prices affects the outlook for inflation in the USA. Housing held down the overall inflation in 2021. Despite record growth in private market-based measures of home prices and rents, the…
View article: Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform
Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform Open
We argue the revenue potential from increasing tax rates on capital gains may be substantially greater than previously understood. First, many prior studies focus primarily on short-run taxpayer responses, and so miss revenue from gains th…
View article: The Coming Rise in Residential Inflation
The Coming Rise in Residential Inflation Open
We study how the recent run-up in housing and rental prices affects the outlook for inflation in the United States.Housing held down overall inflation in 2021.Despite record growth in private market-based measures of home prices and rents,…
View article: How Tight are U.S. Labor Markets?
How Tight are U.S. Labor Markets? Open
Since the outset of the Covid-19 pandemic, labor market indicators that traditionally move together have been sending different signals about the degree of slack in the U.S. labor market.While some indicators on the supply-side, such as th…
View article: Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform
Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform Open
We argue the revenue potential from increasing tax rates on capital gains may be substantially greater than previously understood.First, many prior studies focus primarily on short-run taxpayer responses, and so miss revenue from gains tha…
View article: The COVID-19 Pandemic and the $16 Trillion Virus
The COVID-19 Pandemic and the $16 Trillion Virus Open
Steven H. Woolf, MD, MPH; Derek A. Chapman, PhD; Roy T. Sabo, PhD; Daniel M. Weinberger, PhD; Latoya Hill, MPH; DaShaunda D. H. Taylor, MPH
View article: A Calculation of the Social Returns to Innovation
A Calculation of the Social Returns to Innovation Open
This paper estimates the social returns to investments in innovation.The disparate spillovers associated with innovation, including imitation, business stealing, and intertemporal spillovers, have made calculations of the social returns di…
View article: Understanding the Revenue Potential of Tax Compliance Investment
Understanding the Revenue Potential of Tax Compliance Investment Open
In a July 2020 report, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that modest investments in the IRS would generate somewhere between $60 and $100 billion in additional revenue over a decade.This is qualitatively correct.But quantitatively,…
View article: The Declining Worker Power Hypothesis: An explanation for the recent evolution of the American economy
The Declining Worker Power Hypothesis: An explanation for the recent evolution of the American economy Open
Rising profitability and market valuations of US businesses, sluggish wage growth and a declining labor share of income, and reduced unemployment and inflation, have defined the macroeconomic environment of the last generation.This paper o…
View article: A Calculation of the Social Returns to Innovation
A Calculation of the Social Returns to Innovation Open
This paper estimates the social returns to investments in innovation. The disparate spillovers associated with innovation, including imitation, business stealing, and intertemporal spillovers, have made calculations of the social returns d…
View article: Aging, Output Per Capita, and Secular Stagnation
Aging, Output Per Capita, and Secular Stagnation Open
This paper re-examines the relationship between population aging and economic growth. We confirm previous research such as Cutler et al. (1990) and Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) that show positive correlation between population aging and pe…
View article: Shrinking the Tax Gap: Approaches and Revenue Potential
Shrinking the Tax Gap: Approaches and Revenue Potential Open
Between 2020 and 2029, the IRS will fail to collect nearly $7.5 trillion of taxes it is due.It is not possible to calculate with precision how much of this "tax gap" could be collected.This paper offers a naïve approach.The analysis sugges…
View article: On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World
On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World Open
We argue that the economy of the industrialized world taken as a whole is currently -and for the foreseeable future will remain -highly prone to secular stagnation.But for extraordinary fiscal policies, real interest rates would have falle…
View article: Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel
Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel Open
We investigate the bank lending channel of negative nominal policy rates from an empirical and theoretical perspective.We find that retail household deposit rates are subject to a lower bound (DLB).Empirically, once the DLB is met, the pas…
View article: Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation
Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation Open
This paper re-examines the relationship between population aging and economic growth.We confirm previous research such as Cutler, Poterba, Sheiner, and Summers (1990) and Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) that show positive correlation between …
View article: Jobs for the Heartland: Place-Based Policies in 21st Century America
Jobs for the Heartland: Place-Based Policies in 21st Century America Open
The economic convergence of American regions has greatly slowed, and rates of long-term nonemployment have even been diverging.Simultaneously, the rate of non-employment for working age men has nearly tripled over the last 50 years, genera…
View article: Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?
Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses? Open
There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the …