Laurie Agel
YOU?
Author Swipe
View article: Reply to: Observed warming of cold extremes is not captured with a fixed threshold definition
Reply to: Observed warming of cold extremes is not captured with a fixed threshold definition Open
View article: Cold-air outbreaks in the continental US: Connections with stratospheric variations
Cold-air outbreaks in the continental US: Connections with stratospheric variations Open
Mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere extreme cold events continue to occur despite overall winter warming trends. These events have been linked to weakened stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) states. In this study, we analyze both the upper and l…
View article: Drought Weather in the Northeast United States
Drought Weather in the Northeast United States Open
This study examines changes to daily weather patterns associated with the occurrence of the precipitation deficits that contribute to seasonal drought events, with durations from 3 to 8 months in the Northeast United States, for the period…
View article: Author Correction: No detectable trend in mid-latitude cold extremes during the recent period of Arctic amplification
Author Correction: No detectable trend in mid-latitude cold extremes during the recent period of Arctic amplification Open
View article: An Unexpected Outcome Followed an Apparent Seasonal Forecast of Opportunity and Prolonged Drought in Southwest Asia
An Unexpected Outcome Followed an Apparent Seasonal Forecast of Opportunity and Prolonged Drought in Southwest Asia Open
Despite forecasts to the contrary, Southwest Asia precipitation was unexpectedly below normal in October–December 2023, which extended an ongoing three‐year drought that was responsible for water shortages and acute food insecurity. Expect…
View article: Impact of Vegetation Assimilation on Flash Drought Characteristics across the Continental United States
Impact of Vegetation Assimilation on Flash Drought Characteristics across the Continental United States Open
Predicting and managing the impacts of flash droughts is difficult owing to their rapid onset and intensification. Flash drought monitoring often relies on assessing changes in root-zone soil moisture. However, the lack of widespread soil …
View article: The contribution of precipitation recycling to North American wet and dry precipitation extremes
The contribution of precipitation recycling to North American wet and dry precipitation extremes Open
Over the course of a season, a location’s precipitation is comprised of moisture sourced from a diverse set of geographic regions. Seasonal extremes in precipitation may arise from changes in the contribution of one or several of these sou…
View article: No detectable trend in mid-latitude cold extremes during the recent period of Arctic amplification
No detectable trend in mid-latitude cold extremes during the recent period of Arctic amplification Open
It is widely accepted that Arctic amplification—accelerated Arctic warming—will increasingly moderate cold air outbreaks to the mid-latitudes. Yet, an increasing number of recent studies also argue that Arctic amplification can contribute …
View article: Response to Limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming
Response to Limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming Open
View article: The “Polar Vortex” Winter of 2013/2014
The “Polar Vortex” Winter of 2013/2014 Open
The term “polar vortex” remained largely a technical term until early January 2014 when the United States (US) media used it to describe an historical cold air outbreak in eastern North America. Since then, “polar vortex” has been used mor…
View article: The Polar Vortex Winter of 2013/14
The Polar Vortex Winter of 2013/14 Open
The term “polar vortex” remained largely a technical term until early January 2014 when the United States media used it to describe an historical cold air outbreak in eastern North America. Since then, “polar vortex” has been used more fre…
View article: Clustering Analysis of Autumn Weather Regimes in the Northeast United States
Clustering Analysis of Autumn Weather Regimes in the Northeast United States Open
A k- means clustering method is applied to daily ERA5 500-hPa heights, sea level pressure, and 850-hPa winds, 1979–2008, to identify characteristic weather types (WTs) for September–November for the northeast United States. The resulting W…
View article: Four distinct Northeast US heat wave circulation patterns and associated mechanisms, trends, and electric usage
Four distinct Northeast US heat wave circulation patterns and associated mechanisms, trends, and electric usage Open
View article: How Well Do CMIP6 Historical Runs Match Observed Northeast U.S. Precipitation and Extreme Precipitation–Related Circulation?
How Well Do CMIP6 Historical Runs Match Observed Northeast U.S. Precipitation and Extreme Precipitation–Related Circulation? Open
Sixteen historical simulations (1950–2014) from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are compared to Northeast U.S. observed precipitation and extreme precipitation–related synoptic circulation. A set of metrics bas…
View article: North American extreme precipitation events and related large-scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends
North American extreme precipitation events and related large-scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends Open
This paper surveys the current state of knowledge regarding large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than 1 week) extreme precipitation events over North America. In contrast to teleconnections, whic…
View article: Hydrometeorological Conditions Preceding Extreme Streamflow for the Charles and Mystic River Basins of Eastern Massachusetts
Hydrometeorological Conditions Preceding Extreme Streamflow for the Charles and Mystic River Basins of Eastern Massachusetts Open
Hydrometeorological links to high streamflow events (HSFEs), 1950–2014, for the Mystic and Charles watersheds in the Metro Boston region of Massachusetts are examined. HSFEs are defined as one or more continuous days of streamflow above th…
View article: More-Persistent Weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex States Linked to Cold Extremes
More-Persistent Weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex States Linked to Cold Extremes Open
The extratropical stratosphere in boreal winter is characterized by a strong circumpolar westerly jet, confining the coldest temperatures at high latitudes. The jet, referred to as the stratospheric polar vortex, is predominantly zonal and…
View article: Winter Weather Regimes in the Northeast United States
Winter Weather Regimes in the Northeast United States Open
The method of k-means cluster analysis is applied to U.S. wintertime daily 850-hPa winds across the Northeast. The resulting weather patterns are analyzed in terms of duration, station, gridded precipitation, storm tracks, and climate tele…