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View article: Sensitivity of RSV detection by PCR in respiratory samples is not reduced by a 24 h delay from sampling to testing with storage at room temperature
Sensitivity of RSV detection by PCR in respiratory samples is not reduced by a 24 h delay from sampling to testing with storage at room temperature Open
Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a common cause of severe respiratory tract disease in infants, the elderly and immunocompromised patients. However, there is uncertainty as to how sample handling practices affect performance of tests t…
View article: A novel modelling framework for immunity-driven epidemics of non-sterilising infections
A novel modelling framework for immunity-driven epidemics of non-sterilising infections Open
Protecting populations against infections with non-sterilising immunity, such as COVID-19 and influenza, presents a major public health challenge. Unlike other infections, COVID-19 has produced irregular epidemic dynamics that are not full…
View article: Targeted vaccination is effective for mpox clade Ib in England despite increased household transmission: Predictions from a modelling study
Targeted vaccination is effective for mpox clade Ib in England despite increased household transmission: Predictions from a modelling study Open
Mpox is an emerging infectious disease with increasing global relevance. In 2024, a new clade, mpox clade Ib, was associated with high household attack rates and case fatality, raising concerns about sustained human-to-human transmission o…
View article: Acute coronary syndrome after an infective exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. A prospective cohort study of acute lower respiratory tract disease in hospitalised adults
Acute coronary syndrome after an infective exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. A prospective cohort study of acute lower respiratory tract disease in hospitalised adults Open
Introduction Comorbid cardiovascular disease has been reported extensively in community chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) populations, but to a lesser degree in acute hospital settings. Shared risk factors and acute infection bo…
View article: Targeted vaccination is effective for mpox clade Ib in England despite increased household transmission: predictions from a modelling study
Targeted vaccination is effective for mpox clade Ib in England despite increased household transmission: predictions from a modelling study Open
Background Mpox is an emerging infectious disease with increasing global relevance. In 2024, a new clade, mpox clade Ib, was associated with high household attack rates and case fatality, raising concerns about sustained human-to-human tra…
View article: On real-time calibrated prediction for complex model-based decision support in pandemics: Part 1
On real-time calibrated prediction for complex model-based decision support in pandemics: Part 1 Open
A bstract Infectious disease models are used to predict the spread and impact of outbreaks of a disease. Like other complex models, they have parameters that need to be calibrated, and structural discrepancies from the reality that they si…
View article: On real-time calibrated prediction for complex model-based decision support in pandemics: Part 2
On real-time calibrated prediction for complex model-based decision support in pandemics: Part 2 Open
Calibration of complex stochastic infectious disease models is challenging. These often have high-dimensional input and output spaces, with the models exhibiting complex, non-linear dynamics. Coupled with a paucity of necessary data, this …
View article: Emergency department presentations of community-acquired lower respiratory tract disease in Bristol, UK: a prospective cohort study 2022–2023
Emergency department presentations of community-acquired lower respiratory tract disease in Bristol, UK: a prospective cohort study 2022–2023 Open
Background Recent reports highlight the importance of acute lower respiratory tract disease (aLRTD) for patients, but data describing incidence and burden in emergency departments (ED) are lacking. Methods A cohort study ascertaining cases…
View article: Analysis insights to support the use of wastewater and environmental surveillance data for infectious diseases and pandemic preparedness
Analysis insights to support the use of wastewater and environmental surveillance data for infectious diseases and pandemic preparedness Open
Wastewater-based epidemiology is the detection of pathogens from sewage systems and the interpretation of these data to improve public health. Its use has increased in scope since 2020, when it was demonstrated that SARS-CoV-2 RNA could be…
View article: Incidence of community acquired lower respiratory tract disease in Bristol, UK following the emergence of SARS-CoV-2: a prospective cohort study 2020-2024
Incidence of community acquired lower respiratory tract disease in Bristol, UK following the emergence of SARS-CoV-2: a prospective cohort study 2020-2024 Open
Surveillance of acute lower respiratory tract disease (aLRTD) is fundamental for understanding population health burden and healthcare needs. COVID-19 altered the epidemiology of respiratory infections, but post-pandemic aLRTD incidence an…
View article: Emergency department presentations of community-acquired lower respiratory tract disease in Bristol, UK: a prospective cohort study 2022-2023
Emergency department presentations of community-acquired lower respiratory tract disease in Bristol, UK: a prospective cohort study 2022-2023 Open
Background Recent reports highlight the importance of acute lower respiratory tract disease (aLRTD) for patients, but data describing incidence and burden in emergency departments (ED) are lacking. Methods A cohort study ascertaining cases…
View article: Mechanistic models of humoral kinetics following COVID-19 vaccination
Mechanistic models of humoral kinetics following COVID-19 vaccination Open
COVID-19 vaccine programmes must account for variable immune responses and waning protection. Existing descriptions of antibody responses to COVID-19 vaccination convey limited information about the mechanisms of antibody production and ma…
View article: The potential and challenges of AI for collective intelligence
The potential and challenges of AI for collective intelligence Open
Tackling large scale problems like climate change and the Sustainable Development Goals, requires taking a collective approach. Artificial Intelligence (AI) offers tremendous potential to enhance collective intelligence, both as an actor t…
View article: Artificial Intelligence for Collective Intelligence: A National-Scale Research Strategy
Artificial Intelligence for Collective Intelligence: A National-Scale Research Strategy Open
Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have great potential to help address societal challenges that are both collective in nature and present at national or trans-national scale. Pressing challenges in healthcare, finance, infrastructur…
View article: Estimating the burden of vaccine-preventable lower respiratory tract disease in UK primary care: protocol for a prospective surveillance study (AvonCAP GP2)
Estimating the burden of vaccine-preventable lower respiratory tract disease in UK primary care: protocol for a prospective surveillance study (AvonCAP GP2) Open
Background The true burden of acute lower respiratory tract disease (aLRTD; includes acute lower respiratory tract infection [aLRTI] and presumed non-infective exacerbations of chronic lung disease and heart failure) among adults presentin…
View article: Syndromic case definitions for lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) are less sensitive in older age: an analysis of symptoms among hospitalised adults
Syndromic case definitions for lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) are less sensitive in older age: an analysis of symptoms among hospitalised adults Open
Background Lower Respiratory Tract Infections (LRTI) pose a serious threat to older adults but may be underdiagnosed due to atypical presentations. Here we assess LRTI symptom profiles and syndromic (symptom-based) case ascertainment in ol…
View article: Streptococcus pneumoniae: Nasal influenza vaccination, carriage density and transmission in families
Streptococcus pneumoniae: Nasal influenza vaccination, carriage density and transmission in families Open
The live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) is offered in the United Kingdom to young children, protecting against influenza for those vaccinated and indirect protection for the wider community. It has also been shown to increase carriage…
View article: Combined multiplex panel test results are a poor estimate of disease prevalence without adjustment for test error
Combined multiplex panel test results are a poor estimate of disease prevalence without adjustment for test error Open
Multiplex panel tests identify many individual pathogens at once, using a set of component tests. In some panels the number of components can be large. If the panel is detecting causative pathogens for a single syndrome or disease then we …
View article: Syndromic case definitions for Lower Respiratory Tract Infection (LRTI) are less sensitive in older age: an analysis of symptoms among hospitalised adults
Syndromic case definitions for Lower Respiratory Tract Infection (LRTI) are less sensitive in older age: an analysis of symptoms among hospitalised adults Open
Background Lower Respiratory Tract Infections (LRTI) pose a serious threat to older adults but may be underdiagnosed due to atypical presentations. Here we assess LRTI symptom profiles and syndromic (symptom-based) case ascertainment in ol…
View article: Mechanistic models of humoral kinetics following COVID-19 vaccination
Mechanistic models of humoral kinetics following COVID-19 vaccination Open
Introduction Future COVID-19 vaccine programmes need to take into account the variable responses elicited by different vaccines and their waning protection over time. Existing descriptions of antibody response to COVID-19 vaccination conve…
View article: Artificial intelligence for collective intelligence: a national-scale research strategy
Artificial intelligence for collective intelligence: a national-scale research strategy Open
Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have great potential to help address societal challenges that are both collective in nature and present at national or transnational scale. Pressing challenges in healthcare, finance, infrastructure…
View article: Combined multiplex panel test results are a poor estimate of disease prevalence without adjustment for test error
Combined multiplex panel test results are a poor estimate of disease prevalence without adjustment for test error Open
Multiplex panel tests identify many individual pathogens at once, using a set of component tests. In some panels the number of components can be large. If the panel is detecting causative pathogens for a single syndrome or disease then we …
View article: Relative vaccine effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 boosters in people aged at least 75 years during the spring-summer (monovalent vaccine) and autumn-winter (bivalent vaccine) booster campaigns: a prospective test negative case–control study, United Kingdom, 2022
Relative vaccine effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 boosters in people aged at least 75 years during the spring-summer (monovalent vaccine) and autumn-winter (bivalent vaccine) booster campaigns: a prospective test negative case–control study, United Kingdom, 2022 Open
Background Understanding the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of new COVID-19 vaccine formulations against SARS-CoV-2 infection is a public health priority. A precise analysis of the rVE of monovalent and bivalent boosters given during…
View article: Association of <scp>ABO</scp> and Rhesus blood groups with severe outcomes from <scp>non‐SARS‐CoV</scp>‐2 respiratory infection: A prospective observational cohort study in Bristol, <scp>UK</scp> 2020–2022
Association of <span>ABO</span> and Rhesus blood groups with severe outcomes from <span>non‐SARS‐CoV</span>‐2 respiratory infection: A prospective observational cohort study in Bristol, <span>UK</span> 2020–2022 Open
Summary Despite significant global morbidity associated with respiratory infection, there is a paucity of data examining the association between severity of non‐SARS‐CoV‐2 respiratory infection and blood group. We analysed a prospective co…
View article: P152 The association of ABO and Rhesus blood group with severe outcomes from non-SARS CoV-2 respiratory infection: a prospective observational cohort study 2020–2022
P152 The association of ABO and Rhesus blood group with severe outcomes from non-SARS CoV-2 respiratory infection: a prospective observational cohort study 2020–2022 Open
Background Recently, increased hospitalisation and poorer outcome has been found in blood group A patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Although ABO groups have been consistently linked with disease, there is a lack of data examining their a…
View article: S85 Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) after exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) compared to other causes of acute lower respiratory tract disease in a prospective cohort study of hospitalised adults
S85 Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) after exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) compared to other causes of acute lower respiratory tract disease in a prospective cohort study of hospitalised adults Open
Introduction and Objectives The interaction between hospitalisation for acute lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), COPD status, and subsequent ACS is infrequently reported. Proposed mechanisms that promote ACS risk in the COPD populat…
View article: S126 Surveillance of pneumococcal serotypes in adults hospitalised with acute lower respiratory tract infection following the COVID-19 pandemic in Bristol, UK
S126 Surveillance of pneumococcal serotypes in adults hospitalised with acute lower respiratory tract infection following the COVID-19 pandemic in Bristol, UK Open
Background While pneumococcus remains one of the main bacterial causes of adult lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI), there is a paucity of data on the relative contribution of serotypes included in pneumococcal vaccines to community-…
View article: Serotype Distribution and Disease Severity in Adults Hospitalized with <i>Streptococcus pneumoniae</i> Infection, Bristol and Bath, UK, 2006‒2022
Serotype Distribution and Disease Severity in Adults Hospitalized with <i>Streptococcus pneumoniae</i> Infection, Bristol and Bath, UK, 2006‒2022 Open
Ongoing surveillance after pneumococcal conjugate vaccination (PCV) deployment is essential to inform policy decisions and monitor serotype replacement. We report serotype and disease severity trends in 3,719 adults hospitalized for pneumo…
View article: Impact of SARS-CoV-2 infective exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease on clinical outcomes in a prospective cohort study of hospitalised adults
Impact of SARS-CoV-2 infective exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease on clinical outcomes in a prospective cohort study of hospitalised adults Open
Objectives To determine whether acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) triggered by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have worse outcomes than AECOPD caused by other infectious age…