Lesley J. Gray
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View article: Role of the quasi-biennial oscillation in alleviating biases in the semi-annual oscillation
Role of the quasi-biennial oscillation in alleviating biases in the semi-annual oscillation Open
Model representations of the stratospheric semi-annual oscillation (SAO) show a common easterly bias, with a weaker westerly phase and stronger easterly phase compared to observations. Previous studies have shown that both resolved and par…
View article: Supplementary material to "Solar cycle impacts on North Atlantic climate"
Supplementary material to "Solar cycle impacts on North Atlantic climate" Open
View article: Solar cycle impacts on North Atlantic climate
Solar cycle impacts on North Atlantic climate Open
The North Atlantic sector has been identified as a region where the 11-year solar cycle has small but non-negligible impacts on near-surface climate. Nonetheless, debate persists about the robustness of such impacts and the mechanisms that…
View article: Role of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on Alleviating Biases in the Semi-Annual Oscillation
Role of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on Alleviating Biases in the Semi-Annual Oscillation Open
Model representations of the stratospheric semi-annual oscillation (SAO) show a common easterly bias, with a weaker westerly phase and stronger easterly phase compared to observations. Previous studies have shown that resolved and paramete…
View article: A momentum budget study of the semi‐annual oscillation in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model
A momentum budget study of the semi‐annual oscillation in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Open
The representation of the semi‐annual oscillation (SAO) in climate models shows a common easterly bias of several tens of metres per second compared to observations. These biases could be due to deficiencies in eastward tropical wave forci…
View article: Ecological speciation in East African freshwater crabs of the genus <i>Arcopotamonaute</i>s Bott, 1955 across a lake–river boundary in the Lake Malawi catchment (Potamoidea: Potamonautidae: Potamonatinae)
Ecological speciation in East African freshwater crabs of the genus <i>Arcopotamonaute</i>s Bott, 1955 across a lake–river boundary in the Lake Malawi catchment (Potamoidea: Potamonautidae: Potamonatinae) Open
Geological, climate, and ecosystem changes in Africa probably influenced speciation of Afrotropical freshwater crabs. In total, the subfamily Potamonautinae comprises over 120 species, and this diversity provides a valuable opportunity to …
View article: Understanding the Mechanisms for Tropical Surface Impacts of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO)
Understanding the Mechanisms for Tropical Surface Impacts of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) Open
The impact of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) on tropical convection and precipitation is investigated through nudging experiments using the UK Met Office Hadley Center Unified Model. The model control simulations show robust links be…
View article: Understanding the mechanisms for tropical surface impacts of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)
Understanding the mechanisms for tropical surface impacts of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) Open
This study evaluates the main hypotheses to explain a coupling between the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tropical stratosphere and the tropical troposphere and surface. The impact of the QBO on tropical convection and precipitati…
View article: Factors Influencing Health Career Choices During Clinicians’ First Three Years in Practice
Factors Influencing Health Career Choices During Clinicians’ First Three Years in Practice Open
Background: Health systems globally need more clinicians to work rurally and in community-based primary care. This study explores factors influencing health graduates’ choice of clinical setting and geographical location during early caree…
View article: Impacts, processes and projections of the quasi-biennial oscillation
Impacts, processes and projections of the quasi-biennial oscillation Open
View article: The tropical route of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) teleconnections in a climate model
The tropical route of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) teleconnections in a climate model Open
The influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on tropical climate is demonstrated using 500-year pre-industrial control simulations from the Met Office Hadley Centre model. Robust precipitation responses to the phase of the QBO are…
View article: Revisiting mechanisms of the Mesoamerican Midsummer drought
Revisiting mechanisms of the Mesoamerican Midsummer drought Open
Observations show that the seasonal cycle of precipitation in parts of southern Mexico and Central America exhibits a bimodal signal, known as the Midsummer drought (MSD), but there is no consensus on which processes are most relevant for …
View article: Comment on wcd-2022-14
Comment on wcd-2022-14 Open
Abstract. The influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on tropical climate is demonstrated using 500-year pre-industrial control simulations from the Met Office Hadley Centre model. Robust precipitation responses …
View article: Interactions between the stratospheric polar vortex and Atlantic circulation on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales
Interactions between the stratospheric polar vortex and Atlantic circulation on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales Open
Variations in the strength of the Northern Hemisphere winter polar stratospheric vortex can influence surface variability in the Atlantic sector. Disruptions of the vortex, known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), are associated with…
View article: A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future
A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future Open
We have implemented a new stratospheric ozone model in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system and tested its performance for different timescales to assess the impact of stratospheric ozone on meteorological …
View article: The impact of the QBO on the region of the tropical tropopause in QBOi models: Present‐day simulations
The impact of the QBO on the region of the tropical tropopause in QBOi models: Present‐day simulations Open
The processes occurring in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) are of great importance for stratosphere–troposphere exchanges and the variability of the Earth's climate. Previous studies demonstrated the increasing ability of atmospheric g…
View article: Stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth System Models
Stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth System Models Open
<p>Our study shows the relevance of the interactions between atmospheric chemistry and physics to achieve better weather predictions. We provide evidence of the role that stratospheric ozone plays to improve weather forecasts on seve…
View article: Supplementary material to "The tropical route of QBO teleconnections in a climate model"
Supplementary material to "The tropical route of QBO teleconnections in a climate model" Open
View article: The tropical route of QBO teleconnections in a climate model
The tropical route of QBO teleconnections in a climate model Open
The influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on tropical climate is demonstrated using a 500-yr pre-industrial control simulation of the Met Office Hadley Centre model. Robust precipitation responses to the phase of the QBO are di…
View article: Revisiting mechanisms of the Mesoamerican Midsummer drought
Revisiting mechanisms of the Mesoamerican Midsummer drought Open
Observations show that the seasonal cycle of precipitation in parts of southern Mexico and Central America exhibits a bimodal signal, known as the Midsummer drought (MSD), but there is no consensus on which processes are most relevant for …
View article: Mechanisms of influence of the <scp>Semi‐Annual Oscillation</scp> on stratospheric sudden warmings
Mechanisms of influence of the <span>Semi‐Annual Oscillation</span> on stratospheric sudden warmings Open
The influence of the Semi‐Annual Oscillation (SAO) on the timing and evolution of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is examined using the 2008/2009 SSW as the primary case‐study. When the zonal winds in both the troposphere and th…
View article: Comment on acp-2021-688
Comment on acp-2021-688 Open
Abstract. Variations in the strength of the Northern Hemisphere winter polar stratospheric vortex can influence surface variability in the Atlantic sector. Disruptions of the vortex, known as sudden stratospheric warmings …
View article: Similar patterns of tropical precipitation and circulation changes under solar and greenhouse gas forcing
Similar patterns of tropical precipitation and circulation changes under solar and greenhouse gas forcing Open
Theory and model evidence indicate a higher global hydrological sensitivity for the same amount of surface warming to solar as to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, but regional patterns are highly uncertain due to their dependence on circulati…
View article: Interactions between the stratospheric polar vortex and Atlantic circulation on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales
Interactions between the stratospheric polar vortex and Atlantic circulation on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales Open
Variations in the strength of the Northern Hemisphere winter polar stratospheric vortex can influence surface variability in the Atlantic sector. Disruptions of the vortex, known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), are associated with …
View article: Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models
Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models Open
The Quasi‐biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to incre…
View article: A wavelet transform method to determine monsoon onset and retreat from precipitation time‐series
A wavelet transform method to determine monsoon onset and retreat from precipitation time‐series Open
A new method to determine monsoon onset and retreat timings using wavelet transform methodology applied to precipitation time‐series at the pentad scale is described. The principal advantage of this method is its portability, since it can …
View article: Comment on acp-2020-1261
Comment on acp-2020-1261 Open
We have implemented a new stratospheric ozone model in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system, and tested its performance for different timescales, to assess the impact of stratospheric ozone on meteorologica…
View article: Origins of multi-decadal variability in sudden stratospheric warmings
Origins of multi-decadal variability in sudden stratospheric warmings Open
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are major disruptions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex and occur on average approximately six times per decade in observation-based records. However, within these records, inte…
View article: Regime Behaviour in the Upper Stratosphere as a Precursor of Stratosphere- Troposphere Coupling of the Northern Hemisphere
Regime Behaviour in the Upper Stratosphere as a Precursor of Stratosphere- Troposphere Coupling of the Northern Hemisphere Open
<p>A flow regime index is constructed based on the November-December standard deviation of the Ertel’s potential vorticity (EPV) in the northern upper stratosphere at 1500 K (~40 km). The index reveals two flow regimes in b…
View article: Origins of Multi-decadal Variability in Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
Origins of Multi-decadal Variability in Sudden Stratospheric Warmings Open
<p>Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are major disruptions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex and occur on average approximately 6 times per decade in observation based records. However, within these record…