Luke Kemp
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View article: Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk
Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk Open
Humanity faces a complex and dangerous global risk landscape, and many different terms and concepts have been used to make sense of it. One broad strand of research characterises how risk emerges from the complex global system, using conce…
View article: Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk
Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk Open
Humanity faces a complex and dangerous global risk landscape, and many different terms and concepts have been used to make sense of it. One broad strand of research characterises how risk emerges within the complex global system, using con…
View article: Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk
Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk Open
Non-technical summary We live in a time of significant global risk. Some research has focused on understanding systemic sources of this risk, while other research has focused on possible worst-case outcomes. In this article, we bring toget…
View article: Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk
Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk Open
Humanity faces a complex and dangerous global risk landscape, and many different terms and concepts have been used to make sense of it. One broad strand of research characterises how risk emerges from the complex global system, using conce…
View article: Climate catastrophe: The value of envisioning the worst‐case scenarios of climate change
Climate catastrophe: The value of envisioning the worst‐case scenarios of climate change Open
Many now argue that we should think about the previously unthinkable risks of climate change, including societal collapses and human extinction. Calamitous images of the future are not pathological or counterproductive: it is both necessar…
View article: The vulnerability of aging states: A survival analysis across premodern societies
The vulnerability of aging states: A survival analysis across premodern societies Open
How states and great powers rise and fall is an intriguing enigma of human history. Are there any patterns? Do polities become more vulnerable over time as they age? We analyze longevity in hundreds of premodern states using survival analy…
View article: Reply to Ruhl and Craig: Assessing and governing extreme climate risks needs to be legitimate and democratic
Reply to Ruhl and Craig: Assessing and governing extreme climate risks needs to be legitimate and democratic Open
This is the final version. Available from the National Academy of Sciences via the DOI in this record
View article: Reply to Bhowmik et al.: Democratic climate action and studying extreme climate risks are not in tension
Reply to Bhowmik et al.: Democratic climate action and studying extreme climate risks are not in tension Open
This is the final version. Available from the National Academy of Sciences via the DOI in this record
View article: Reply to Kelman: The foundations for studying catastrophic climate risks
Reply to Kelman: The foundations for studying catastrophic climate risks Open
This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the National Academy of Sciences via the DOI in this record
View article: Reply to Burgess et al: Catastrophic climate risks are neglected, plausible, and safe to study
Reply to Burgess et al: Catastrophic climate risks are neglected, plausible, and safe to study Open
This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the National Academy of Sciences via the DOI in this record
View article: Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios
Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios Open
Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual…
View article: SDG 13 – How Societies Succeeded or Failed to Respond to Environmental Disruption
SDG 13 – How Societies Succeeded or Failed to Respond to Environmental Disruption Open
Historical climatic and environmental pressures and societal responses have varied markedly. Connecting climatic changes to social transformations is not an invention of the modern age. Commentators since antiquity have attributed politica…
View article: Systemic Risk and Resilience: The Bronze Age Collapse and Recovery
Systemic Risk and Resilience: The Bronze Age Collapse and Recovery Open
In this chapter we apply the concepts of resilience theory and systemic risk to the Bronze Age Collapse. We contend that this was a case of synchronous failures driven by both long-term trends in interconnectedness and inequality, as well …
View article: Democratising Risk: In Search of a Methodology to Study Existential Risk
Democratising Risk: In Search of a Methodology to Study Existential Risk Open
Studying potential global catastrophes is vital. The high stakes of existential risk studies (ERS) necessitate serious scrutiny and self-reflection. We argue that existing approaches to studying existential risk are not yet fit for purpose…
View article: The Cascading Climate Crisis
The Cascading Climate Crisis Open
• Risk cascades are where an adverse climatic impact or trend triggers or amplifies a set of risks, including through maladaptive responses. • Climate risk cascades have already occurred and are set to increase going into the future. Some …
View article: A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk
A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk Open
Injecting particles into atmosphere to reflect sunlight, stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), represents a potential technological solution to the threat of climate change. But could the cure be worse than the disease? Understanding low …
View article: Foresight for unknown, long-term and emerging risks, Approaches and Recommendations
Foresight for unknown, long-term and emerging risks, Approaches and Recommendations Open
Foresight approaches have played an increasing role in our efforts to understand and develop ways of addressing global risks. They enable us to engage a range of expertise in exploring possible future scenarios, technological and societal …
View article: Fragmentation and the Future: Investigating Architectures for International AI Governance
Fragmentation and the Future: Investigating Architectures for International AI Governance Open
The international governance of artificial intelligence (AI) is at a crossroads: should it remain fragmented or be centralised? We draw on the history of environment, trade, and security regimes to identify advantages and disadvantages in …
View article: Bioengineering horizon scan 2020
Bioengineering horizon scan 2020 Open
Horizon scanning is intended to identify the opportunities and threats associated with technological, regulatory and social change. In 2017 some of the present authors conducted a horizon scan for bioengineering (Wintle et al., 2017). Here…
View article: Pathways into organized crime: comparing founders and joiners
Pathways into organized crime: comparing founders and joiners Open
This paper outlines research on the engagement processes and pathways into organised crime (OC). In recent years research on OC has increased, however there is still little understanding of how individuals become engaged in OC, and specifi…
View article: Limiting the climate impact of the Trump administration
Limiting the climate impact of the Trump administration Open
The climate actions of the current US administration under President Trump will undoubtedly impact US domestic emissions. They could even potentially influence global action. But some will last longer than others. A simple heuristic for an…