Thomas M. Fullerton
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View article: Maximum Trimmed Likelihood Estimation for Discrete Multivariate Vasicek Processes
Maximum Trimmed Likelihood Estimation for Discrete Multivariate Vasicek Processes Open
The multivariate Vasicek model is commonly used to capture mean-reverting dynamics typical for short rates, asset price stochastic log-volatilities, etc. Reparametrizing the discretized problem as a VAR(1) model, the parameters are oftenti…
View article: Business Cycle Downturn Likelihood Estimation for Ciudad Juarez
Business Cycle Downturn Likelihood Estimation for Ciudad Juarez Open
A monthly frequency metropolitan business cycle downturn likelihood equation is estimated for Ciudad Juarez. The binary index of economic conditions is based upon monthly IMMEX export oriented manufacturing employment. A dynamic probit met…
View article: Does Rocky Mountain Credit Union Competition still Affect Commercial Bank Interest Rates?
Does Rocky Mountain Credit Union Competition still Affect Commercial Bank Interest Rates? Open
Historically, increased credit union competition in Idaho and Montana has caused commercial banks to offer higher deposit rates to savers and lower loan rates to borrowers. Data are collected for the second quarter of 2018 to examine wheth…
View article: Small Firm Electricity Demand in Las Cruces, New Mexico, USA
Small Firm Electricity Demand in Las Cruces, New Mexico, USA Open
Research examining small commercial and industrial electricity usage patterns have historically received less attention than residential electricity consumption patterns. This study examines electricity as an input to small firm commercial…
View article: A Simple Pseudo Coefficient of Determination for Models with Differenced Dependent Variables
A Simple Pseudo Coefficient of Determination for Models with Differenced Dependent Variables Open
Abstract: Coefficients of determination are popular reference points for assessing regression equation output. Generally known as R-squared statistics, these descriptive measures are reported in a very high percentage of all academic and n…
View article: Yield spreads and business cycle downturn predictability across Texas, 1991-2018
Yield spreads and business cycle downturn predictability across Texas, 1991-2018 Open
This study analyzes Texas state and metropolitan economic downturn predictability.Publicly available Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas dynamic factor business cycle indices are used in the analysis.Sample data cover Texas and nine of its larg…
View article: Cross-Border Cargo Traffic Through a Rural Texas Port of Entry
Cross-Border Cargo Traffic Through a Rural Texas Port of Entry Open
Most econometric analyses of cross-border traffic flows from Mexico have been conducted for the larger metropolitan economies along the international boundary. With the advent of the USMCA trade agreement, plus physical infrastructure bott…
View article: Aggregate Online Brand Name Pharmacy Price Dynamics for the United States and Mexico
Aggregate Online Brand Name Pharmacy Price Dynamics for the United States and Mexico Open
Virtual cross-border medical tourism allows many residents in the United States to purchase brand name medicines from companies in Mexico without travelling there. Monthly economic reports indicate that the online brand name pharmaceutical…
View article: Additional Evidence Regarding Las Cruces Housing Price Dynamics
Additional Evidence Regarding Las Cruces Housing Price Dynamics Open
To examine housing price dynamics for Las Cruces, New Mexico, a theoretical model is developed that takes into account the supply and demand sides. The employed ARDL estimation methodology allows for more realistic modeling of market dynam…
View article: Trade Clusters and USA Southern Border Transportation Costs: 1995-2015
Trade Clusters and USA Southern Border Transportation Costs: 1995-2015 Open
Fixed effects panel regression analysis is used to examine the impact of trade clusters on transportation costs along the southern border of the United States. CIF/ FOB ratios are utilized as the transportation cost measures. Grubel-Lloyd …
View article: Municipal Water Consumption and Urban Economic Growth in El Paso
Municipal Water Consumption and Urban Economic Growth in El Paso Open
This study investigates the nexus between municipal water consumption and economic growth for El Paso, TX, USA. Located in the semi-arid southwestern United States, El Paso water consumption has been the subject of prior economic studies. …
View article: Residential Electricity Consumption in Las Cruces, New Mexico, USA
Residential Electricity Consumption in Las Cruces, New Mexico, USA Open
This study examines how residential electricity consumption (KWHC) reacts to changes in the price of electricity, the price of natural gas, real income per capita, heating degree days, and cooling degree days. Annual frequency data analyze…
View article: Regional Household Economic Stress and Retail Sales Fluctuations
Regional Household Economic Stress and Retail Sales Fluctuations Open
Economic stress indices are used to monitor business cycle conditions in several regions. Although the deployment of these tools is spreading, there have been relatively few efforts to empirically assess the performance of these gauges, es…
View article: Empirical Mysteries of the 2016-17 NBA Regular Season
Empirical Mysteries of the 2016-17 NBA Regular Season Open
This study examines the on-court performance of the thirty National Basketball Association (NBA) teams during the 2016-17 NBA basketball season.Cross sectional data are employed to analyze wins for the 2016-17 NBA basketball season.Althoug…
View article: METROPOLITAN EVIDENCE REGARDING SMALL COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
METROPOLITAN EVIDENCE REGARDING SMALL COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION Open
© 2019, Econjournals. All rights reserved. Small commercial and industrial (CIS) electricity demand is an important category of electric energy consumption. Historically, it has received substantially less research attention than residenti…
View article: Southern Border International Shopping and Employment: 1990-2016
Southern Border International Shopping and Employment: 1990-2016 Open
Price differentials, among other factors, persuade many residents of northern Mexico to shop in the southwestern United States border region. Employment patterns in the latter region are studied using a set of control variables and two ind…
View article: Hotel Sector Forecast Accuracy in El Paso: 2006-2016
Hotel Sector Forecast Accuracy in El Paso: 2006-2016 Open
This study evaluates the accuracy of previously published econometric forecasts for seven lodging sector variables that measure hotel activity in El Paso, Texas. The hotel forecasts have been generated annually using an econometric model o…
View article: Mexico Evidence on the Regional Retail Impacts of Violent Crime
Mexico Evidence on the Regional Retail Impacts of Violent Crime Open
Prior research reports mixed results regarding the economic impacts of crime. This study employs data from all regions of Mexico, including border regions in both the north and the south, to examine the effects of homicides on retail activ…
View article: A Nonlinear Empirical Analysis of Oil Price Co-movements
A Nonlinear Empirical Analysis of Oil Price Co-movements Open
Nonlinear co-movements are analyzed for the daily returns calculated for Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices. The sample period includes data for the pre-2008 price increases and the post-2014 price declines. Empirical…
View article: Infrastructure Impacts on Commercial Property Values Across El Paso in 2013
Infrastructure Impacts on Commercial Property Values Across El Paso in 2013 Open
Real estate property value analysis is used for municipal taxation and budgeting. Commercial properties make up a large percentage of the property tax base in many, if not most, taxing jurisdictions. Data constraints limit the number of an…
View article: Yield Spreads, The Exchange Rate, and Recession Predictability for Northern Mexico Border Economies
Yield Spreads, The Exchange Rate, and Recession Predictability for Northern Mexico Border Economies Open
Prior research suggests that the yield spread between long-term and short-term interest rates contains information regarding the likelihood of future recessions. Linkages between the yield spread and regional business cycles in emerging ec…
View article: EXCHANGE RATE FORECAST FUTILITY FOR THE TAKA
EXCHANGE RATE FORECAST FUTILITY FOR THE TAKA Open
An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) version of an error correction model based on a balance of payments approach is used to forecast the nominal exchange rate for the Bangladeshi taka.Based on existing trade volumes and trade practice…
View article: Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in El Paso: 1976-2015
Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in El Paso: 1976-2015 Open
Links between electricity consumption and economic growth are fairly well documented for national economies, but less so for urban economies. The analysis of such relationships at the sub-national level of aggregation can potentially offer…
View article: Analyzing Small Industrial and Commercial User Demand for Electricity
Analyzing Small Industrial and Commercial User Demand for Electricity Open
This study employs duality theory to develop a theoretical model for small commercial and industrial (CIS) electricity usage. The CIS production function is posited such that output is a function of three variable inputs (electricity, natu…
View article: Any given season?
Any given season? Open
An econometric analysis of the 2016 National Football League season is conducted with respect to regular season victories. Results obtained confirm many of the hypotheses made and bear much in common with one prior NFL study and several ea…
View article: Nominal Exchange Rate Dynamics for the Taka
Nominal Exchange Rate Dynamics for the Taka Open
Error correction modeling is used to model the nominal exchange rate for the Bangladeshi taka. Based on existing trade volumes and trade practices, the bilateral exchange rate of the taka with the dollar is analyzed. Annual frequency data…
View article: Metropolitan Business Cycle Analysis for Lubbock
Metropolitan Business Cycle Analysis for Lubbock Open
This study develops a business cycle index (BCI) for Lubbock Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The Stock & Watson ( 1989 ; 1991 ; 1993 ) methodology is used to develop the BCI and assumes that the co-movements of key economic indicato…