Explanipedia

Epidemicity conditions in spatial models of infectious diseases Open

Marino Gatto, Cristiano Trevisin, Lorenzo Mari, Damiano Pasetto, Enrico Bertuzzo , et al. · 2025

We review the work that has been conducted in the past years to understand when and why significant epidemics may arise even though a disease is not bound to become endemic in the long run i.e. subthreshold outbreaks. In particular, we des…

POS0789 IgG AND IgA ANTI-LIN28A AUTOANTIBODIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH HISTOLOGICAL ACTIVITY AND TREATMENT RESPONSE IN LUPUS NEPHRITIS Open

Carolina Cruciani, Marino Gatto, D. Nikopoulos, Julius Lindblom, Denis Lagutkin , et al. · 2025

Sufficient reproduction numbers to prevent recurrent epidemics Open

Lorenzo Mari, Cristiano Trevisin, Andrea Rinaldo, Marino Gatto · 2025

Current practice in the design and evaluation of control measures in disease ecology and epidemiology, including vaccination, is largely based on reproduction numbers (RNs), which represent prognostic indices of long‐term disease transmiss…

Epidemiological indices with multiple circulating pathogen strains Open

Cristiano Trevisin, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto, Vittoria Colizza, Andrea Rinaldo · 2025

Epidemiological indicators (e.g. reproduction numbers and epidemicity indices) describe long- and short-term behaviour of ongoing epidemics. Their evolving values provide context for designing control measures because maintaining both indi…

Shifting ecological niches of<i>Prunus</i>species under climate change Open

Chiara Vanalli, Marino Gatto, Renato Casagrandi, Danièle Bevacqua · 2025

Climate change is strongly impacting agriculture, reducing crop production and shifting the geographic distribution of suitable areas for crop cultivation. To safeguard future global yield and feed a growing world population, the migration…

A Spatially Explicit Model of the Dynamics of <i>Opisthorchis viverrini</i> Spread Open

Cristiano Trevisin, Lars Kamber, Lorenzo Mari, Nakul Chitnis, Javier Perez‐Saez , et al. · 2024

Opisthorchis viverrini is a water‐based disease‐causing parasite whose public health implications are relevant in Southeast Asia. Untreated or chronic infections often lead to severe hepatobiliary morbidity including cholangiocarcinoma, a …

Epidemiological indices with multiple circulating pathogen strains Open

Cristiano Trevisin, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto, Vittoria Colizza, Andrea Rinaldo · 2024

Epidemiological indicators, such as reproduction numbers and epidemicity indices, describe an ongoing epidemic’s long- and short-term behaviour. Their evolving values provide context for designing control measures, as maintaining both indi…

A spatially explicit model of the dynamics of Opisthorchis viverrini spread Open

Cristiano Trevisin, Lars Kamber, Lorenzo Mari, Nakul Chitnis, Javier Perez‐Saez , et al. · 2024

1. Opisthorchis viverrini is a water-based disease-causing parasite whose public health implications are relevant in particular in Southeast Asia despite broad control efforts and education campaigns. Untreated or chronic infections often …

Re-assessing thermal response of schistosomiasis transmission risk: Evidence for a higher thermal optimum than previously predicted Open

İbrahim Aslan, Julie D. Pourtois, Andrew J. Chamberlin, Kaitlyn Mitchell, Lorenzo Mari , et al. · 2024

The geographical range of schistosomiasis is affected by the ecology of schistosome parasites and their obligate host snails, including their response to temperature. Previous models predicted schistosomiasis’ thermal optimum at 21.7°C, wh…

Epidemicity indices and reproduction numbers from infectious disease data in connected human populations Open

Cristiano Trevisin, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto, Andrea Rinaldo · 2024

Sufficient reproduction numbers to prevent recurrent epidemics Open

Lorenzo Mari, Cristiano Trevisin, Andrea Rinaldo, Marino Gatto · 2024

Current practice in the design and evaluation of epidemic control measures, including vaccination, is largely based on reproduction numbers (RNs), which represent prognostic indexes of long-term disease transmission, both in naive populati…

Helminth ecological requirements shape the impact of climate change on the hazard of infection Open

Chiara Vanalli, Lorenzo Mari, Renato Casagrandi, Marino Gatto, Isabella M. Cattadori · 2024

Outbreaks and spread of infectious diseases are often associated with seasonality and environmental changes, including global warming. Free‐living stages of soil‐transmitted helminths are highly susceptible to climatic drivers; however, ho…

Re-assessing thermal response of schistosomiasis transmission risk: evidence for a higher thermal optimum than previously predicted Open

İbrahim Aslan, Julie D. Pourtois, Andrew J. Chamberlin, Kaitlyn Mitchell, Lorenzo Mari , et al. · 2024

The geographical range of schistosomiasis is affected by the ecology of schistosome parasites and their obligate host snails, including their response to temperature. Previous models predicted schistosomiasis’ thermal optimum at 21.7 °C, w…

Phenological and epidemiological impacts of climate change on peach production Open

Chiara Vanalli, Andrea Radici, Renato Casagrandi, Marino Gatto, Danièle Bevacqua · 2023

Agricultural food security is threatened by climate change impacts, which can distress crop growth and favor the spread of infectious diseases. Here, we examined the synergism of the two potentially most disruptive causes of future yield f…

Helminth ecological requirements shape the impact of climate change on the hazard of infection Open

Chiara Vanalli, Lorenzo Mari, Renato Casagrandi, Marino Gatto, Isabella M. Cattadori · 2023

Outbreaks and spread of infectious diseases are often associated with seasonality and changes caused by global warming. Free-living stages of soil-transmitted helminths are highly susceptible to environmental drivers, however, how multiple…

Spatially explicit effective reproduction numbers from incidence and mobility data Open

Cristiano Trevisin, Enrico Bertuzzo, Damiano Pasetto, Lorenzo Mari, Stefano Miccoli , et al. · 2023

Current methods for near real-time estimation of effective reproduction numbers from surveillance data overlook mobility fluxes of infectors and susceptible individuals within a spatially connected network (the metapopulation). Exchanges o…

Reframing Optimal Control Problems for Infectious Disease Management in Low-Income Countries Open

Morganne Igoe, Renato Casagrandi, Marino Gatto, Christopher M. Hoover, Lorenzo Mari , et al. · 2023

Optimal control theory can be a useful tool to identify the best strategies for the management of infectious diseases. In most of the applications to disease control with ordinary differential equations, the objective functional to be opti…

A Spatially Explicit Framework for Effective Reproduction Numbers and Epidemiological Reactivity Open

Cristiano Trevisin, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto, Andrea Rinaldo · 2023

Modeling the contribution of antibodies to the within-host dynamics of single and dual helminth infections in a natural system Open

Chiara Vanalli, Lorenzo Mari, Renato Casagrandi, Brian Boag, Marino Gatto , et al. · 2022

Within-host models of infection can provide important insights into the processes that affect parasite spread and persistence in host populations. However, modeling is often limited by the availability of empirical data, a problem commonly…

A climate-driven compartmental model for fungal diseases in fruit orchards: The impacts of climate change on a brown rot-peach system Open

Danièle Bevacqua, Chiara Vanalli, Renato Casagrandi, Marino Gatto · 2022

As a well-known driving force of diseases in crops, climate change is likely to impact future crop yields. In the present work, we account for climate-related influences on the key parameters of a SIR-type epidemiological model for fungal …

Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study Open

Joseph C. Lemaitre, Damiano Pasetto, Mario Zanon, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari , et al. · 2022

While campaigns of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are underway across the world, communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of a limited supply of doses. Current vaccine allocation strategies are based on criteria …

Deep Learning Segmentation of Satellite Imagery Identifies Aquatic Vegetation Associated with Snail Intermediate Hosts of Schistosomiasis in Senegal, Africa Open

Zac Yung-Chun Liu, Andrew J. Chamberlin, Krti Tallam, Isabel J. Jones, Lance L. Lamore , et al. · 2022

Schistosomiasis is a debilitating parasitic disease of poverty that affects more than 200 million people worldwide, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, and is clearly associated with the construction of dams and water resource management infrast…

Epidemicity of cholera spread and the fate of infection control measures Open

Cristiano Trevisin, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Lorenzo Mari, Damiano Pasetto, Marino Gatto , et al. · 2022

The fate of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks is predicted through reproduction numbers, defining the long-term establishment of the infection, and epidemicity indices, tackling the reactivity of the infectious pool to new contagions. P…

Movement of Organisms and the Dynamics of Populations in Space Open

Marino Gatto, Renato Casagrandi · 2022

Space does matter at every scale of the hierarchical structure of biology, from nucleic acids to cells, from tissues to organisms, and from populations to the whole biosphere.

The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend: Immune-Mediated Facilitation Contributes to Fitness of Co-Infecting Helminths Open

Francesca Dagostin, Chiara Vanalli, Brian Boag, Renato Casagrandi, Marino Gatto , et al. · 2021

Our conceptual understanding of immune-mediated interactions between parasites is rooted in the theory of community ecology. One of the limitations of this approach is that most of the theory and empirical evidence has focused on resource …

Seed regulatory framework analysis. RTB Seed System Toolbox Course: 26, 28, 29 July 2021. Open

Margaret McEwan, David J. Spielman, Marino Gatto, Tahirou Abdoulaye, G. Hareau · 2021

Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study Open

Joseph C. Lemaitre, Damiano Pasetto, Mario Zanon, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari , et al. · 2021

While SARS-CoV-2 vaccine distribution campaigns are underway across the world, communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of limited supplies. We wonder whether suitable spatial allocation strategies might signific…

Identification of Ecological Hotspots for the Seagrass Posidonia oceanica via Metapopulation Modeling Open

Lorenzo Mari, Paco Melià, Marino Gatto, Renato Casagrandi · 2021

The seagrass Posidonia oceanica is a benthic foundation species endemic to the Mediterranean Sea. It is a key component of coastal seascapes across the Mediterranean large marine ecosystem, where it plays fundamental ecological, physical, …

The epidemicity index of recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infections Open

Lorenzo Mari, Renato Casagrandi, Enrico Bertuzzo, Damiano Pasetto, Stefano Miccoli , et al. · 2021

Range of reproduction number estimates for COVID-19 spread Open

Damiano Pasetto, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Enrico Bertuzzo, Marino Gatto, Andrea Rinaldo · 2020

To monitor local and global COVID-19 outbreaks, and to plan containment measures, accessible and comprehensible decision-making tools need to be based on the growth rates of new confirmed infections, hospitalization or case fatality rates.…

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