Malcolm Farrow
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View article: Artificial neural network risk prediction of COPD exacerbations using urine biomarkers
Artificial neural network risk prediction of COPD exacerbations using urine biomarkers Open
Background COPD exacerbations cause considerable morbidity and mortality. We sought to identify a panel of urine biomarkers that can distinguish between stable and exacerbation states and predict risk of future exacerbations. Methods A ret…
View article: Reconciliation of Expert Priors for Quantities and Events and Application Within the Probabilistic Delphi Method
Reconciliation of Expert Priors for Quantities and Events and Application Within the Probabilistic Delphi Method Open
View article: Reconciliation of expert priors for quantities and events and application within the probabilistic Delphi method
Reconciliation of expert priors for quantities and events and application within the probabilistic Delphi method Open
We consider the problem of aggregating the judgements of a group of experts to form a single prior distribution representing the judgements of the group. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to reconcile the judgements of the group of …
View article: Bayes Linear Bayes Networks with an Application to Prognostic Indices
Bayes Linear Bayes Networks with an Application to Prognostic Indices Open
Bayes linear kinematics and Bayes linear Bayes graphical models provide an extension of Bayes linear methods so that full conditional updates may be combined with Bayes linear belief adjustment. The use of Bayes linear kinematics eliminate…
View article: Assurance for Sample Size Determination in Reliability Demonstration Testing
Assurance for Sample Size Determination in Reliability Demonstration Testing Open
Manufacturers are required to demonstrate that products meet reliability targets. A way to achieve this is with reliability demonstration tests (RDTs), where a number of products are put on test and the test is passed or failed according t…
View article: Assurance for Sample Size Determination in Reliability Demonstration Testing
Assurance for Sample Size Determination in Reliability Demonstration Testing Open
Manufacturers are required to demonstrate that products meet reliability targets. A way to achieve this is with reliability demonstration tests (RDTs), where a number of products are put on test and the test is passed or failed according t…
View article: Identifying the effect of public holidays on daily demand for gas
Identifying the effect of public holidays on daily demand for gas Open
Summary To reduce operational costs and to ensure security of supply, gas distribution networks require accurate forecasts of the demand for gas. Among domestic and commercial customers, demand relates primarily to the weather and patterns…
View article: Assurance for Sample Size Determination in Reliability Demonstration Testing
Assurance for Sample Size Determination in Reliability Demonstration Testing Open
Manufacturers are required to demonstrate that products meet reliability targets. A way to achieve this is with reliability demonstration tests (RDTs), where a number of products are put on test and the test is passed or failed according t…
View article: Assurance for sample size determination in reliability demonstration testing
Assurance for sample size determination in reliability demonstration testing Open
Manufacturers are required to demonstrate that products meet reliability targets. A way to achieve this is with reliability demonstration tests (RDTs), where a number of products are put on test and the test is passed or failed according t…
View article: Identifying the Effect of Public Holidays on Daily Demand for Gas
Identifying the Effect of Public Holidays on Daily Demand for Gas Open
Summary To reduce operational costs and to ensure security of supply, gas distribution networks require accurate forecasts of the demand for gas. Among domestic and commercial customers, demand relates primarily to the weather and patterns…
View article: Assurance for sample size determination in reliability demonstration testing
Assurance for sample size determination in reliability demonstration testing Open
Manufacturers are required to demonstrate products meet reliability targets. A typical way to achieve this is with reliability demonstration tests (RDTs), in which a number of products are put on test and the test is passed if a target rel…
View article: Bayesian Modelling of Rainfall Data by Using Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Models and Latent Gaussian Variables
Bayesian Modelling of Rainfall Data by Using Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Models and Latent Gaussian Variables Open
Summary We present a non-homogeneous hidden Markov model for the spatiotemporal analysis of rainfall data, within a subjective Bayesian framework. In this model, daily rainfall patterns are driven by a small number of unobserved states, in…