Marcin Bielecki
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View article: Estimates and Projections of the Natural Rate of Interest for Poland and the Euro Area
Estimates and Projections of the Natural Rate of Interest for Poland and the Euro Area Open
Wykorzystujemy szeroką gamę modeli (szeregów czasowych, półstrukturalnych i strukturalnych) do oszacowania poziomów naturalnej stopy procentowej (NSP) w Polsce i strefie euro oraz wskazania czynników odpowiedzialnych za ich zmiany w czasie…
View article: Long Shadows of Financial Shocks: An Endogenous Growth Perspective
Long Shadows of Financial Shocks: An Endogenous Growth Perspective Open
The Great Recession has resulted in a seemingly permanent level shift in many macroeconomic variables. This paper presents a microfounded general equilibrium model featuring frictional labour markets and financial frictions that is able to…
View article: Aging, Migration and Monetary Policy in Poland
Aging, Migration and Monetary Policy in Poland Open
Poland faces a particularly sharp demographic transition. The old-age dependency ratio is expected to increase from slightly above 20% in 2000 to over 60% in 2050. At the same time the country has recently witnessed a huge wave of immigrat…
View article: Predicting length of fatigue cracks by means of machine learning algorithms in the small-data regime
Predicting length of fatigue cracks by means of machine learning algorithms in the small-data regime Open
In this paper several statistical learning algorithms are used to predict the maximal length of fatigue cracks based on a sample composed of 31 observations. The small-data regime is still a problem for many professionals, especially in th…
View article: Intergenerational Redistributive Effects of Monetary Policy
Intergenerational Redistributive Effects of Monetary Policy Open
This paper investigates the distributional consequences of monetary policy across generations. We use a life-cycle model with a rich asset structure as well as nominal and real rigidities, calibrated to the euro area using both macroeconom…
View article: LABOR TAX REDUCTIONS IN EUROPE: THE ROLE OF PROPERTY TAXATION
LABOR TAX REDUCTIONS IN EUROPE: THE ROLE OF PROPERTY TAXATION Open
We use a New Keynesian DSGE model with search frictions on the housing market to evaluate how financing a labor tax reduction by higher property taxation affects the real economy and welfare. Search on the housing market enables us to expl…
View article: GAS TURBINE DIRECT EXHAUST GAS INTEGRATION IN PROCESS INDUSTRY – REVIEW OF APPLICATIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR POLISH MARKET
GAS TURBINE DIRECT EXHAUST GAS INTEGRATION IN PROCESS INDUSTRY – REVIEW OF APPLICATIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR POLISH MARKET Open
The typical combined heat and power plants requires the introduction of additional heating medium. The alternative solution is the direct integration of the exhaust gases from heat engine. The high temperature, surplus oxygen and low water…
View article: Inequality in an OLG economy with heterogeneous cohorts and pension systems
Inequality in an OLG economy with heterogeneous cohorts and pension systems Open
View article: Inequality in an OLG Economy with Heterogeneous Cohorts and Pension Systems
Inequality in an OLG Economy with Heterogeneous Cohorts and Pension Systems Open
View article: The natural rate of interest: Estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy
The natural rate of interest: Estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy Open
Using a wide range of models we document a protracted fall in the natural (or neutral) rate of interest in advanced economies, driven by ageing, waning productivity growth, a rise in mark-ups, and a surge in risk aversion in the wake of th…
View article: The Natural Rate of Interest: Estimates, Drivers, and Challenges to Monetary Policy
The Natural Rate of Interest: Estimates, Drivers, and Challenges to Monetary Policy Open
View article: Could the boom-bust in the eurozone periphery have been prevented?
Could the boom-bust in the eurozone periphery have been prevented? Open
Boom-bust cycles in the eurozone periphery almost toppled the single currency and recent experience suggests that they may return soon. We check whether monetary or macroprudential policy could have prevented the periphery's violent boom a…
View article: Reforming retirement age in DB and DC pension systems in an aging OLG economy with heterogenous agents
Reforming retirement age in DB and DC pension systems in an aging OLG economy with heterogenous agents Open
We analyze the effects of increasing the retirement age in two economies with overlapping generations and within cohort ex ante heterogeneity. The first economy has a defined benefit system, and the second economy is in transition from a d…