Mark Bebbington
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View article: Including dynamics in a network-based stochastic multihazard model: A virtual testbed for volcanic ashfall and flood risk assessment
Including dynamics in a network-based stochastic multihazard model: A virtual testbed for volcanic ashfall and flood risk assessment Open
View article: Brief communication: A magma depletion alternative for vent distribution in volcanic fields
Brief communication: A magma depletion alternative for vent distribution in volcanic fields Open
The location of a volcanic vent controls an eruption's hazards, intensities, and impact. Current kernel density estimation methods of future vent locations in volcanic fields assume that locations with more past-vents are more likely to pr…
View article: Global sensitivity analysis of models for volcanic ash forecasting
Global sensitivity analysis of models for volcanic ash forecasting Open
View article: Assessing Occurrence Patterns of Shallow Hikurangi Slow Slip Events Using Renewal Processes
Assessing Occurrence Patterns of Shallow Hikurangi Slow Slip Events Using Renewal Processes Open
We investigate the occurrence patterns of SSEs along the shallow (15 km) portion of the Hikurangi subduction zone. First, we build a manual catalog constraining timing and length of 92 SSEs between 2006 and 2024. Then, we investigate SSE o…
View article: Brief communication: A magma depletion alternative for vent distribution in volcanic fields
Brief communication: A magma depletion alternative for vent distribution in volcanic fields Open
The location of a volcanic vent controls an eruption's hazards, intensities, and impact. Current kernel density estimation methods of future vent locations in volcanic fields assume that locations with more past-vents are more likely to pr…
View article: Supplementary material to "Brief communication: A magma depletion alternative for vent distribution in volcanic fields"
Supplementary material to "Brief communication: A magma depletion alternative for vent distribution in volcanic fields" Open
View article: Quantifying economic risks to dairy farms from volcanic hazards in Taranaki, Aotearoa / New Zealand
Quantifying economic risks to dairy farms from volcanic hazards in Taranaki, Aotearoa / New Zealand Open
The volcanic hazard and risk science for Taranaki Mounga (Taranaki volcano) in Aotearoa / New Zealand is in an advanced state, with robust probabilistic data and a series of direct impact scenarios modelled for the region. Here, we progres…
View article: Modelling time-inhomogeneous incomplete records of point processes using variants of hidden Markov models
Modelling time-inhomogeneous incomplete records of point processes using variants of hidden Markov models Open
Many point processes such as earthquakes or volcanic eruptions have incomplete records with the degree of incompleteness varying over time. For these point processes, the number of missing events between each pair of consecutively observed…
View article: Forecasting During Volcanic Crises
Forecasting During Volcanic Crises Open
Forecasting during a volcanic crisis is vital to the preservation of life and mitigation of loss during eruption. Decisions on when, where and how to evacuate, where to send the evacuees, and when they can return, are all informed by forec…
View article: Quantifying economic risks to dairy farms from volcanic hazards in Taranaki, New Zealand
Quantifying economic risks to dairy farms from volcanic hazards in Taranaki, New Zealand Open
The volcanic hazard and risk science for Taranaki Mounga (Taranaki volcano) in New Zealand is in an advanced state, with robust probabilistic data and a series of direct impact scenarios modelled for the region. Here we progress this work …
View article: Quantifying systemic vulnerability of interdependent critical infrastructure networks: A case study for volcanic hazards
Quantifying systemic vulnerability of interdependent critical infrastructure networks: A case study for volcanic hazards Open
View article: Brief communication: SWM – stochastic weather model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-Land data
Brief communication: SWM – stochastic weather model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-Land data Open
Long-term multi-hazard and risk assessments are produced by combining many hazard-model simulations, each using a slightly different set of inputs to cover the uncertainty space. While most input parameters for these models are relatively …
View article: Global Sensitivity Analysis of tephra models for forecasting
Global Sensitivity Analysis of tephra models for forecasting Open
Accurate forecasts are needed to help mitigate the risks of volcanic hazards to society. Current approaches use probabilistic estimates based on sparse data, supplemented with expert judgment, to describe likely future eruption characteris…
View article: Including Dynamics in a Network Based Stochastic Multihazard Model
Including Dynamics in a Network Based Stochastic Multihazard Model Open
We outline a conceptual approach to forecast multihazard risk from a cascade of natural hazards events. Network models have been proposed for cascades of natural hazard events, for example storm, flooded river, breached stop banks, damaged…
View article: A quantitative analysis of monitoring signals and eruption explosivity
A quantitative analysis of monitoring signals and eruption explosivity Open
Volcanic hazards are dependent on eruption size and explosivity, thus, the forecasts of these is crucial for emergency management decisions. Monitoring a volcano potentially offers valuable insights to assess when, where, and how explosive…
View article: SWM: a Stochastic Weather Model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-land data
SWM: a Stochastic Weather Model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-land data Open
Long-term hazard and risk assessments are produced by combining many hazard-model simulations, each based on a slightly different set of inputs to cover the uncertainty space. While most input parameters for these models are relatively wel…
View article: PROMETHEUS: Probability in the Mediterranean of Tephra dispersal for various grain sizes. A tool for the evaluation of the completeness of the volcanic record in medial-distal archives
PROMETHEUS: Probability in the Mediterranean of Tephra dispersal for various grain sizes. A tool for the evaluation of the completeness of the volcanic record in medial-distal archives Open
PROMETHEUS is a statistical tool that allows creating maps showing the probability of finding tephra deposits of different grain sizes, originating from eruptions of a specific volcanic source, at any location around the vent. It couples w…
View article: Approaching the challenge of multi-phase, multi-hazard volcanic impact assessment through the lens of systemic risk: application to Taranaki Mounga
Approaching the challenge of multi-phase, multi-hazard volcanic impact assessment through the lens of systemic risk: application to Taranaki Mounga Open
Effective volcanic impact and risk assessment underpins effective volcanic disaster risk management. Yet contemporary volcanic risk assessments face a number of challenges, including delineating hazard and impact sequences, and identifying…
View article: Quantifying Systemic Vulnerability of Interdependent Critical Infrastructure Networks: A Case Study for Volcanic Hazards
Quantifying Systemic Vulnerability of Interdependent Critical Infrastructure Networks: A Case Study for Volcanic Hazards Open
View article: Comment on nhess-2023-160
Comment on nhess-2023-160 Open
Abstract. Long-term hazard and risk assessments are produced by combining many hazard-model simulations, each using slightly different set of inputs to cover the uncertainty space. While most input parameters for these mod…
View article: Brief communication: SWM: Stochastic Weather Model for precipitation-related hazard assessments
Brief communication: SWM: Stochastic Weather Model for precipitation-related hazard assessments Open
Long-term hazard and risk assessments are produced by combining many hazard-model simulations, each using slightly different set of inputs to cover the uncertainty space. While most input parameters for these models are relatively well-con…
View article: Cost-benefit analysis for evacuation decision-support: challenges and possible solutions for applications in areas of distributed volcanism
Cost-benefit analysis for evacuation decision-support: challenges and possible solutions for applications in areas of distributed volcanism Open
During a volcanic crisis, evacuation is the most effective mitigation measure to preserve life. However, the decision to call an evacuation is typically complex and challenging, in part due to uncertainties related to the behaviour of the …
View article: Probabilistic volcanic mass flow hazard assessment using statistical surrogates of deterministic simulations
Probabilistic volcanic mass flow hazard assessment using statistical surrogates of deterministic simulations Open
Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessments require (1) an identification of the hazardous volcanic source; (2) estimation of the magnitude-frequency relationship for the volcanic process; (3) quantification of the dependence of hazard on ma…
View article: Identifying analogues for data-limited volcanoes using hierarchical clustering and expert knowledge: a case study of Melimoyu (Chile)
Identifying analogues for data-limited volcanoes using hierarchical clustering and expert knowledge: a case study of Melimoyu (Chile) Open
Determining the eruption frequency-Magnitude ( f -M) relationship for data-limited volcanoes is challenging since it requires a comprehensive eruption record of the past eruptive activity. This is the case for Melimoyu, a long-dormant and …
View article: Approaching the Challenge of Multi-phase, Multi-hazard Volcanic Impact Assessment Through the Lens of Systemic Risk: Application to Taranaki Mounga
Approaching the Challenge of Multi-phase, Multi-hazard Volcanic Impact Assessment Through the Lens of Systemic Risk: Application to Taranaki Mounga Open
Effective volcanic impact and risk assessment underpins effective volcanic disaster risk management. Yet contemporary volcanic risk assessments face a number of challenges, including delineating hazard and impact sequences, and identifying…
View article: Identifying analogues for Melimoyu, a long-dormant and data-limited volcano in Chile, through hierarchical clustering
Identifying analogues for Melimoyu, a long-dormant and data-limited volcano in Chile, through hierarchical clustering Open
Melimoyu is a long-dormant and data-limited volcano in the Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) in Chile with only two confirmed Holocene eruptions (VEI 5). Determining the frequency-magnitude relationship for Melimoyu is challenging due to data s…
View article: What is the probability of unexpected eruptions from potentially active volcanoes or regions?
What is the probability of unexpected eruptions from potentially active volcanoes or regions? Open
View article: Development of a Bayesian event tree for short-term eruption onset forecasting at Taupō volcano
Development of a Bayesian event tree for short-term eruption onset forecasting at Taupō volcano Open
Taupō volcano, located within the Taupō Volcanic Zone (TVZ) in the central North Island of Aotearoa-New Zealand, is one of the world's most active silicic caldera systems. Silicic calderas such as Taupō are capable of a broad and complex r…
View article: A new perspective on eruption data completeness: insights from the First Recorded EruptionS in the Holocene (FRESH) database
A new perspective on eruption data completeness: insights from the First Recorded EruptionS in the Holocene (FRESH) database Open
View article: Forecasting Eruptions at Poorly Known Volcanoes Using Analogs and Multivariate Renewal Processes
Forecasting Eruptions at Poorly Known Volcanoes Using Analogs and Multivariate Renewal Processes Open
Forecasting future destructive eruptions from re‐awakening volcanoes remains a challenge, mainly due to a lack of previous event data. This sparks a search for similar volcanoes to provide additional information, especially those with bett…