Mark Bognanni
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View article: Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model
Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model Open
<ns2:p>Economic analysis of effective policies for managing epidemics requires an integrated economic and epidemiological approach. We develop and estimate a spatial, micro-founded model of the joint evolution of economic var…
View article: A Forecasting Assessment of Market-Based PCE Inflation
A Forecasting Assessment of Market-Based PCE Inflation Open
This article explores the potential for market-based inflation measures to improve inflation forecasting. To do so, I compare the pseudo-real time forecasting performance of a suite of models for forecasting total or “headline” PCE inflati…
View article: Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model
Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model Open
Economic analysis of effective policies for managing epidemics requires an integrated economic and epidemiological approach. We develop and estimate a spatial, micro-founded model of the joint evolution of economic variables and the spread…
View article: Sequential Bayesian Inference for Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility
Sequential Bayesian Inference for Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility Open
We develop a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm for Bayesian inference in vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility (VAR-SV). The algorithm builds particle approximations to the sequence of the model’s posteriors, adapting the …
View article: Has the Real-Time Reliability of Monthly Indicators Changed over Time?
Has the Real-Time Reliability of Monthly Indicators Changed over Time? Open
Economic data are routinely revised after they are initially released. I examine the extent to which the real-time reliability of six monthly macroeconomic indicators important to policymakers has remained stable over time by studying the …
View article: An Assessment of the ISM Price Indexes for Inflation Forecasting
An Assessment of the ISM Price Indexes for Inflation Forecasting Open
The Institute for Supply Management produces a measure of pricing trends, the manufacturing price index or ISMPI, that is constructed from its periodic surveys of purchasing and supply executives. We investigate this measure’s predictive c…
View article: An Assessment of the ISM Manufacturing Price Index for Inflation Forecasting
An Assessment of the ISM Manufacturing Price Index for Inflation Forecasting Open
The Institute for Supply Management produces a measure of pricing trends, the manufacturing price index or ISMPI, that is constructed from its periodic surveys of purchasing and supply executives. We investigate this measure?s predictive c…
View article: New Normal or Real-Time Noise? Revisiting the Recent Data on Labor Productivity
New Normal or Real-Time Noise? Revisiting the Recent Data on Labor Productivity Open
Some economic observers have argued that the weakness of recent productivity data indicates we have entered a new era of low economic growth. To investigate that claim, we study labor productivity between 1968 and 2016 and compare recent p…