Explanipedia

Standardising the “Gregory method” for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity Open

Andrew D. King, Mark D. Zelinka · 2025

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) – the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 – is a high-profile metric for quantifying the Earth system's response to human-induced climate change. A widely …

Evaluating Mean State Cloud Properties in the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) Open

Li‐Wei Chao, Mark D. Zelinka, Christopher R. Terai, Hassan Beydoun, Benjamin Hillman , et al. · 2025

Accurately simulating clouds remains a key challenge in global climate models, primarily because cloud formation involves sub‐grid processes that are parameterized and crudely represented in models. This study examines the performance of D…

Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations Open

Paulo Ceppi, Sarah Wilson Kemsley, Hendrik Andersen, Timothy Andrews, Ryan J. Kramer , et al. · 2025

From mid-2003 to mid-2024, a decrease in low-cloud amount enhanced the absorption of solar radiation by 0.22±0.07 W m-2 decade-1 (±1σ range), accelerating the energy imbalance trend during that period (0.44 W m-2 decade-1). Through control…

Comment on egusphere-2025-4378 Open

Mark D. Zelinka · 2025

Understanding Biases in Simulated Cloud Radiative Effects in E3SMv3 Open

Yuying Zhang, Shaocheng Xie, Christopher R. Terai, Wuyin Lin, Jean‐Christophe Golaz , et al. · 2025

Cloud feedback uncertainty in the equatorial Pacific across CMIP6 models Open

Peter Hill, D Finney, Mark D. Zelinka · 2025

Cloud Feedback Uncertainty in the Equatorial Pacific Across CMIP6 Models Open

Peter Hill, D Finney, Mark D. Zelinka · 2025

Cloud feedback is the largest uncertainty in estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. In this study we focus on the equatorial Pacific, where CMIP6 model cloud feedback spread is notably large. Cloud radiative effects in this region are…

Evaluating Mean State Cloud Properties in the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model Open

Li‐Wei Chao, Mark D. Zelinka, Christopher R. Terai, Hassan Beydoun, Benjamin Hillman , et al. · 2025

Meteorological Drivers of the Low-Cloud Radiative Feedback Pattern Effect and its Uncertainty Open

Rachel Yuen Sum Tam, Timothy A. Myers, Mark D. Zelinka, Cristian Proistosescu, Yuan‐Jen Lin , et al. · 2025

The radiative feedback pattern effect remains a large source of uncertainty for both projections of future trends and interpretations of past trends in global temperature. The pattern effect is defined as the difference in feedbacks betwee…

CMIP7 Data Request: Atmosphere Priorities and Opportunities Open

Beth Dingley, James Anstey, Marta Ábalos, Carsten Abraham, Tommi Bergman , et al. · 2025

This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) request for data unlocking key research avenues in atmospheric science and provides justification for the resources needed to produce…

Cloud feedback uncertainty in the equatorial Pacific across CMIP6 models Open

Peter Hill, D Finney, Mark D. Zelinka · 2025

Standardising the "Gregory method" for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity Open

Anna Zehrung, Andrew D. King, Zebedee Nicholls, Mark D. Zelinka, Malte Meinshausen · 2025

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) – the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 – is a high-profile metric for quantifying the Earth system’s response to human-induced climate change. A widely …

Supplementary material to "Standardising the "Gregory method" for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity" Open

Anna Zehrung, Andrew D. King, Zebedee Nicholls, Mark D. Zelinka, Malte Meinshausen · 2025

Overview of the Nephele Perturbed Parameter Ensemble for aerosol-cloud interactions in E3SMv3 Open

Jacqueline M Nugent, Hunter Brown, Andrew C. Kirby, Daniel T. McCoy, Gabrielle Allen , et al. · 2025

Impact of Turbulence Representation on the Relationship Between Cloud Feedback and Aerosol‐Cloud Interaction in an E3SMv2 Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Open

Yi Qin, Po‐Lun Ma, Mark D. Zelinka, Stephen A. Klein, Tao Zhang , et al. · 2025

Recent studies reveal an anti‐correlation between global cloud feedback (CF) and effective radiative forcing due to aerosol‐cloud interaction (ERFaci) in Earth system models, but the physical mechanisms underlying it remain uncertain. Here…

Earth's Energy Imbalance More Than Doubled in Recent Decades Open

Thorsten Mauritsen, Yoko Tsushima, Benoît Meyssignac, Norman G. Loeb, Maria Z. Hakuba , et al. · 2025

Global warming results from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions which upset the delicate balance between the incoming sunlight, and the reflected and emitted radiation from Earth. The imbalance leads to energy accumulation in the atmosp…

The strength of coupling to the Southern Ocean modulates Tropical Eastern Pacific variability and forced response Open

Zachary Espinosa, Mark D. Zelinka, Cecilia M. Bitz, Kyle C. Armour · 2025

Sea ice pattern effect on Earth’s energy budget is characterized by hemispheric asymmetry Open

Chen Zhou, Qingmin Wang, Ivy Tan, Lujun Zhang, Mark D. Zelinka , et al. · 2025

Earth’s energy budget is sensitive to the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration (SIC) change, but the global radiative effect of changes in SIC spatial distribution has not been quantified. We show that …

Technical note: Recommendations for diagnosing cloud feedbacks and rapid cloud adjustments using cloud radiative kernels Open

Mark D. Zelinka, Li‐Wei Chao, Timothy A. Myers, Yi Qin, Stephen A. Klein · 2025

The cloud radiative kernel method is a popular approach to quantify cloud feedbacks and rapid cloud adjustments to increased CO2 concentrations and to partition contributions from changes in cloud amount, altitude, and optical depth. Howev…

Mid-latitude clouds contribute to Arctic amplification via interactions with other climate feedbacks Open

David Bonan, Jennifer E. Kay, Nicole Feldl, Mark D. Zelinka · 2025

Traditional feedback analyses, which assume that individual climate feedback mechanisms act independently and add linearly, suggest that clouds do not contribute to Arctic amplification. However, feedback locking experiments, in which the …

Relationship Between Tropical Cloud Feedback and Climatological Bias in Clouds Open

Chad W. Thackeray, Mark D. Zelinka, Jesse Norris, Alex Hall, Stephen Po–Chedley · 2024

Global climate model (GCM) projections of future climate are uncertain largely due to a persistent spread in cloud feedback. This is despite efforts to reduce this model uncertainty through a variety of emergent constraints (ECs); with sev…

Comment on egusphere-2024-2782 Open

Mark D. Zelinka · 2024

The Relative Importance of Forced and Unforced Temperature Patterns in Driving the Time Variation of Low-Cloud Feedback Open

Yuan‐Jen Lin, G Cesana, Cristian Proistosescu, Mark D. Zelinka, Kyle C. Armour · 2024

Atmospheric models forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) suggest a trend toward a more-stabilizing cloud feedback in recent decades, partly due to the surface cooling trend in the eastern Pacific (EP) and the warming trend i…

Implications of a Pervasive Climate Model Bias for Low‐Cloud Feedback Open

Paulo Ceppi, Timothy A. Myers, Peer Nowack, Casey J. Wall, Mark D. Zelinka · 2024

How low clouds respond to warming constitutes a key uncertainty for climate projections. Here we observationally constrain low‐cloud feedback through a controlling factor analysis based on ridge regression. We find a moderately positive gl…

The Shortwave Cloud‐SST Feedback Amplifies Multi‐Decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends: Implications for Observed Cooling Open

Zachary Espinosa, Mark D. Zelinka · 2024

Climate models struggle to produce sea surface temperature (SST) gradient trends in the tropical Pacific comparable to those seen recently in nature. Here, we find that the magnitude of the cloud‐SST feedback in the subtropical Southeast P…

Technical Note: Recommendations for Diagnosing Cloud Feedbacks and Rapid Cloud Adjustments Using Cloud Radiative Kernels Open

Mark D. Zelinka, Li‐Wei Chao, Timothy A. Myers, Yi Qin, Stephen A. Klein · 2024

The cloud radiative kernel method is a popular approach to quantify cloud feedbacks and rapid cloud adjustments to increased CO2 concentrations, and to partition contributions from changes in cloud amount, altitude, and optical depth. Howe…

Systematic and objective evaluation of Earth system models: PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP) version 3 Open

Jiwoo Lee, Peter J. Gleckler, Min‐Seop Ahn, Ana C. Ordoñez, Paul Ullrich , et al. · 2024

Systematic, routine, and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) facilitates benchmarking improvement across model generations and identifying the strengths and weaknesses of different model configurations. By gauging the co…

Contributions From Cloud Morphological Changes to the Interannual Shortwave Cloud Feedback Based on MODIS and ISCCP Satellite Observations Open

Ivy Tan, Mark D. Zelinka, Quentin Coopman, Brian H. Kahn, Lazaros Oreopoulos , et al. · 2024

The surface temperature‐mediated change in cloud properties, referred to as the cloud feedback, continues to dominate the uncertainty in climate projections. A larger number of contemporary global climate models (GCMs) project a higher deg…

Observational constraint on a feedback from supercooled clouds reduces projected warming uncertainty Open

G Cesana, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Israel Silber, Anthony D. Del Genio , et al. · 2024

Causes of large climate model spread in equatorial Pacific cloud feedback Open

Peter Hill, D Finney, Mark D. Zelinka · 2024

Climate models remain the best tools for predicting the impact of climate change on quantities relevant to human activity, such as precipitation, surface temperature and occurrence of severe weather events. Since many of these changes scal…

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