Mark Gertler
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View article: Anatomy of the Phillips Curve: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications
Anatomy of the Phillips Curve: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications Open
We use a unique high-frequency micro-dataset to estimate the slope of the primitive form of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, which features marginal cost as the relevant real activity variable.Our dataset encompasses product-level prices,…
View article: Oil Prices, Monetary Policy and Inflation Surges
Oil Prices, Monetary Policy and Inflation Surges Open
We develop a simple quantitative New Keynesian model aimed at accounting for the recent sudden and persistent rise in inflation, with emphasis on the role of oil shocks and accommodative monetary policy.The model features oil as a compleme…
View article: Temporary Layoffs, Loss-of-Recall and Cyclical Unemployment Dynamics
Temporary Layoffs, Loss-of-Recall and Cyclical Unemployment Dynamics Open
We revisit the role of temporary layoffs in the business cycle, motivated by their unprecedented surge during the pandemic recession.We first measure the contribution of temporary layoffs to unemployment dynamics over the period 1979 to th…
View article: Credit Booms, Financial Crises and Macroprudential Policy
Credit Booms, Financial Crises and Macroprudential Policy Open
We develop a model of banking crises which Is consistent with two important features of the data: First, banking crises are usually preceded by credit booms.Second, credit booms often do not result in a crisis.That is, there are "good" boo…
View article: A Macroeconomic Model with Financial Panics
A Macroeconomic Model with Financial Panics Open
This article incorporates banks and banking panics within a conventional macroeconomic framework to analyse the dynamics of a financial crisis of the kind recently experienced. We are particularly interested in characterizing the sudden an…
View article: What Happened: Financial Factors in the Great Recession
What Happened: Financial Factors in the Great Recession Open
At the onset of the recent global financial crisis, the workhorse macroeconomic models assumed frictionless financial markets. These frameworks were thus not able to anticipate the crisis, nor to analyze how the disruption of credit market…
View article: What Happened: Financial Factors in the Great Recession
What Happened: Financial Factors in the Great Recession Open
Since the onset of the Great Recession, an explosion of both theoretical and empirical research has investigated how the financial crisis emerged and how it was transmitted to the real sector. The goal of this paper is to describe what we …
View article: A Macroeconomic Model with Financial Panics
A Macroeconomic Model with Financial Panics Open
This paper incorporates banks and banking panics within a conventional macroeconomic framework to analyze the dynamics of a financial crisis of the kind recently experienced. We are particularly interested in characterizing the sudden and …
View article: Rethinking the Power of Forward Guidance: Lessons from Japan
Rethinking the Power of Forward Guidance: Lessons from Japan Open
In the spring of 2013 the Bank of Japan introduced a state-of- the-art monetary policy which included among other things inflation targeting and aggressive use of forward guidance. In contrast to the predictions of conventional macroeconom…
View article: Unemployment Fluctuations, Match Quality, and the Wage Cyclicality of New Hires
Unemployment Fluctuations, Match Quality, and the Wage Cyclicality of New Hires Open
Macroeconomic models often incorporate some form of wage stickiness to help account for employment fluctuations.However, a recent literature calls in to question this approach, citing evidence of new hire wage cyclicality from panel data s…
View article: Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence
Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence Open
We examine the hypothesis that the slowdown in productivity following the Great Recession was in significant part an endogenous response to the contraction in demand that induced the downturn. We motivate, develop and estimate a model with…
View article: Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence
Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence Open
We examine the hypothesis that the slowdown in productivity following the Great Recession was in significant part an endogenous response to the contraction in demand that induced the downturn.We first present some panel data evidence that …
View article: Wholesale Banking and Bank Runs in Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Crises
Wholesale Banking and Bank Runs in Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Crises Open
There has been considerable progress in developing macroeconomic models of banking crises. However, most of this literature focuses on the retail sector where banks obtain deposits from households. In fact, the recent financial crisis that…
View article: Wholesale Banking and Bank Runs in Macroeconomic Modelling of Financial Crises
Wholesale Banking and Bank Runs in Macroeconomic Modelling of Financial Crises Open
There has been considerable progress in developing macroeconomic models of banking crises.However, most of this literature focuses on the retail sector where banks obtain deposits from households.In fact, the recent financial crisis that t…
View article: An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining
An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining Open
We develop and estimate a medium scale macroeconomic model that allows for unemployment and staggered nominal wage contracting. In contrast to most existing quantitative models, employment adjustment is on the extensive margain and the emp…