Martin Larch
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View article: Some intergenerational arithmetic to control public debt in the EU
Some intergenerational arithmetic to control public debt in the EU Open
Long-term projections are the bedrock of any analysis looking at the sustainability of public finances. This paper computes the changes in economic growth in individual European Union countries needed for government debt-to-GDP ratios to s…
View article: Bremsen Fiskalregeln öffentliche Investitionen aus?
Bremsen Fiskalregeln öffentliche Investitionen aus? Open
Zusammenfassung Fiskalregeln gelten als zentrales Instrument zur Sicherung solider und nachhaltiger Staatsfinanzen. Kontrovers ist jedoch, ob und inwieweit Fiskalregeln öffentliche Investitionen beeinträchtigen und die Fiskalpolitik ihretw…
View article: Some Intergenerational Arithmetic to Control Public Debt in the EU
Some Intergenerational Arithmetic to Control Public Debt in the EU Open
View article: Scarring effects of major economic downturns: The role of fiscal policy and government investment
Scarring effects of major economic downturns: The role of fiscal policy and government investment Open
"Despite the efforts of policy makers to tackle recessions as they happen, there is ample evidence that major economic downturns produce lasting negative effects on real GDP, pointing to the existence of “economic scarring”. This paper tak…
View article: Is the road to hell paved with good intentions? An empirical analysis of budgetary follow-up in the EU
Is the road to hell paved with good intentions? An empirical analysis of budgetary follow-up in the EU Open
We study the one-year-ahead budgetary projections from the Stability and Convergence Programmes (SCPs) of EU Member States since the start of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) until the start of the coronavirus crisis. First, we consid…
View article: Numerical Compliance with EU Fiscal Rules: Facts and Figures from a New Database
Numerical Compliance with EU Fiscal Rules: Facts and Figures from a New Database Open
EU fiscal rules are meant to keep public finances on a sustainable path. This paper presents a new database that tracks numerical compliance with the four main rules of the Stability and Growth Pact starting in 1998. Our assessment of nume…
View article: Is the Road to Hell Paved with Good Intentions? An Empirical Analysis of Budgetary Follow-Up in the EU
Is the Road to Hell Paved with Good Intentions? An Empirical Analysis of Budgetary Follow-Up in the EU Open
View article: Enforcement of Fiscal Rules: Lessons from the Fiscal Compact
Enforcement of Fiscal Rules: Lessons from the Fiscal Compact Open
View article: Do EU fiscal rules support or hinder counter-cyclical fiscal policy?
Do EU fiscal rules support or hinder counter-cyclical fiscal policy? Open
View article: Mitigating the Gap Between the Rich and the Poor: Key Trends and Drivers of Redistribution
Mitigating the Gap Between the Rich and the Poor: Key Trends and Drivers of Redistribution Open
The growing inequality of market income has attracted considerable attention; less so the redistribution of income. This article analyses key trends and drivers of income redistribution in the EU and the world. It shows that in the EU incr…
View article: Do EU Fiscal Rules Support or Hinder Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy?
Do EU Fiscal Rules Support or Hinder Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy? Open
Rather than stabilising aggregate demand, discretionary fiscal policy tends to amplify cyclical fluctuations of output. The commonly accepted reasons are political economy and uncertainty. In the EU, the pro-cyclical nature of discretionar…
View article: Do EU Fiscal Rules Support or Hinder Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy?
Do EU Fiscal Rules Support or Hinder Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy? Open
View article: EU Fiscal Rules: Further Reform or Better Implementation?
EU Fiscal Rules: Further Reform or Better Implementation? Open
View article: Fiscal Policy and the Assessment of Output Gaps in Real Time: An Exercise in Risk Management
Fiscal Policy and the Assessment of Output Gaps in Real Time: An Exercise in Risk Management Open