Olivia Martius
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Atmospheric Blocks Increase the Odds of Extreme Wildfire Danger at High Latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere Open
Recent years have seen severe wildfires in the Northern Hemisphere. This study statistically links atmospheric blocks to extreme fire weather () and observed fires (OF) across seasons from 1979 to 2020. Based on co‐location and odds ratio …
Advances and challenges in hail research: report from the 4th European hail workshop 2024 Open
Hailstorms cause substantial damage to buildings, crops, vehicles, and infrastructure in many regions worldwide. Despite notable progress in recent years, hail remains insufficiently understood and poorly represented in numerical weather p…
A pan-European analysis of large-scale drivers of severe convective outbreaks Open
Severe convective outbreaks have been an important driver of weather-related damages in Europe in recent years. Regional convection affecting thousands of square kilometres is driven by large-scale conditions that establish convectively fa…
Two sides of the same coin? Hydrometeorological uncertainties in impact-based flood warning systems and climate change sensitivity of floodplains Open
The sensitivity of floodplains to floods of various magnitudes is strongly influenced by the relationship between hydrogeomorphology and the built environment. To provide a nuanced measure of impact sensitivity to changes in flood magnitud…
HYD-RESPONSES: daily hydro-meteorological catchment-level time series to analyse HYDrological drought dynamics in RESPONSE to (cumulative) water deficits in Swiss catchments Open
The HYD-RESPONSES dataset (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14713274; von Matt et al., 2025) provides new daily catchment-level time series for key hydro-meteorological variables, including precipitation, snow water equivalent, temperature, …
A Storyline Climate‐Change Attribution Study of a High‐Impact Hailstorm in Switzerland Open
We employed a “storyline” approach to explore possible anthropogenic climate change influences on the extreme hail event in Switzerland on 28 June 2021. An ensemble of factual WRF simulations with randomly perturbed initial and boundary co…
View article: European supercell thunderstorms—A prevalent current threat and an increasing future hazard
European supercell thunderstorms—A prevalent current threat and an increasing future hazard Open
Supercell thunderstorms are the most hazardous thunderstorm category and particularly impactful to society. Their monitoring is challenging and often confined to the radar networks of single countries. By exploiting kilometer-scale climate…
Hail risk to photovoltaic systems in Switzerland Open
The rapid expansion of photovoltaic (PV) systems is transforming the renewable energy landscape, but extreme weather events, particularly hailstorms, pose an increasing threat to energy production and infrastructure longevity. Recent studi…
View article: Supercell thunderstorms in Europe – insights from km-scale climate simulations
Supercell thunderstorms in Europe – insights from km-scale climate simulations Open
Supercell thunderstorms are among the most damaging and hazardous weather phenomena. Due to heterogeneous observation networks, no comprehensive and homogeneous observation-based supercell climatology exists for Europe. Utilizing a km-scal…
View article: Will today’s proxies work tomorrow? Revisiting the stationarity assumption for severe convective environments
Will today’s proxies work tomorrow? Revisiting the stationarity assumption for severe convective environments Open
Environmental proxies are widely used to estimate the occurrence of severe convective storms - such as hailstorms and supercells - in both present and future climates, as these storms are typically not resolved in climate models. These env…
View article: The role of Mediterranean cyclone structure in modulating convective activity
The role of Mediterranean cyclone structure in modulating convective activity Open
Deep convection in the Mediterranean is favoured by warm sea surface temperatures and complex topography, but its occurrence is further modulated by synoptic-scale systems such as Mediterranean cyclones (MEDCs). In this study we investigat…
Nowcasting convective hazards in complex topography using machine learning Open
Machine learning (ML) is currently revolutionising weather prediction at the short- to medium-range timescale. Nowcasting using ML has attracted less attention in comparison, especially for convective hazards such as lightning, hail and ex…
On Hailstorm Variability in Switzerland: Key Drivers for Seasonal Predictability Open
The new long-term (1959-2022) reconstruction of Swiss hail days by Wilhelm et al. (2024) reveals substantial natural year-to-year variability in hail activity and a pronounced seasonal cycle. Building on these findings, this study aims to …
Classifying convective surface wind gusts from polarimetric radar data Open
Thunderstorm cells generating severe straight-line winds pose significant risks to infrastructure in Switzerland, where current warning methods lack specific detection capabilities for these events. Five high-impact thunderstorm cases (201…
Object-based hail-size detection and nowcasting in Switzerland using random forests on polarimetric radar data Open
Hail poses a significant and growing economic threat to Switzerland. In recent years, both large and small hail have caused substantial damage, with large hail leading to record property losses reported by insurance companies. However, sma…
View article: Hail and its impacts: An interdisciplinary research project in Switzerland
Hail and its impacts: An interdisciplinary research project in Switzerland Open
Hail represents the costliest atmospheric peril in Switzerland and many other European countries, highlighting the demand for a good understanding and actionable information about hail risk in current and future climate conditions. For thi…
Severe convective outbreaks and heatwaves – a continental-scale compound event Open
Recent summers in Europe were accompanied by significant convective storm outbreaks with widespread large hail, flash floods, and severe wind phenomena. Particularly severe outbreaks have occurred upstream of concurrent heatwaves. On a con…
A storyline climate-change attribution study of the extreme hail event in Switzerland on 28 June 202 Open
We employed a “storyline” approach to explore possible anthropogenic climate change influences on the extreme hail event in Switzerland on 28 June 2021, with a particular focus on hailfall near Zurich, Switzerland. The event was successful…
View article: Exploring uncertainty in future hail trends: A comparison of proxy-based and diagnostic approaches using convection-permitting climate simulations over Europe
Exploring uncertainty in future hail trends: A comparison of proxy-based and diagnostic approaches using convection-permitting climate simulations over Europe Open
Historical and future hail trends over Europe generally point to an increased hail threat. However, these trends often diverge at the regional scale. In particular, Western and Southern Europe show conflicting signals with some models and …
Long vs. short: understanding the dynamics of persistent summer hot spells in Europe Open
The persistence of surface hot spells in Europe on subseasonal timescales can lead to significant socio-economic impacts. Here, we adopt a regional perspective to compare the dynamical features associated with long-lasting persistent (12–2…
A Prototype Warning System for Surface Water Floods at Swiss Campgrounds Open
Surface water flooding (SWF) results from heavy precipitation that cannot penetrate the ground and thus flows over open terrain until it reaches a watercourse or drainage system. It poses a major hazard and can significantly damage houses …
Dynamical Pathways to Persistent Summer Heat in Western Europe Open
Persistent high summer temperatures in Europe place substantial stress on natural and societal systems. Due to their prolonged duration, such hot spells can prevent these systems from finding respite, negatively impacting their ability to …
View article: Convective environments and hazards in Mediterranean cyclones
Convective environments and hazards in Mediterranean cyclones Open
In the Mediterranean region the presence of warm sea surface temperatures and of complex topography favour per se the development of deep convection. This study shows how the presence of Mediterranean cyclones (MEDCs) further enhances the …
Seasonal to decadal variability and persistence properties of the Euro-Atlantic jet streams characterized by complementary approaches Open
Recent studies have highlighted the link between upper-level jet stream dynamics, especially the persistence of certain jet configurations, and extreme summer weather in Europe. The weaker and more variable nature of the jets in summer mak…
View article: A global perspective on the spatial representation of climate extremes from km-scale models
A global perspective on the spatial representation of climate extremes from km-scale models Open
Weather and climate extremes are rare manifestations of climate variability that can severely impact society and the environment. To investigate their properties and changes on a global scale, observational records are often complemented b…
A pan-European analysis of large-scale drivers of severe convective outbreaks Open
Severe convective outbreaks have been an important driver of weather-related damages in Europe in recent years. Regional convection affecting thousands of square kilometers is driven by large-scale conditions that establish convectively fa…
Differential reflectivity columns and hail: Linking C‐band radar‐based estimated column characteristics to crowdsourced hail observations in Switzerland Open
Differential reflectivity columns () have been shown to provide information about a storm's updraft intensity and size. The updraft's characteristics, in turn, influence a severe storm's propensity to produce hail and the size of said hail…
View article: Convective Environments Within Mediterranean Cyclones
Convective Environments Within Mediterranean Cyclones Open
Mediterranean cyclones can trigger severe weather hazards, including convective precipitation, lightning and hail, with implications for operational forecasting, risk assessment in the insurance industry, and societal preparedness. This wo…
On the role of moist and dry processes in atmospheric blocking biases in the Euro-Atlantic region in CMIP6 Open
Synoptic- and large-scale features of atmospheric flow such as extratropical cyclones, Rossby wave packets, and atmospheric blocking modulate mid-latitude weather and climate. However, several studies have shown strong biases in the freque…