Massimo Giuliodori
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View article: Populist attitudes, fiscal illusion and fiscal preferences: evidence from Dutch households
Populist attitudes, fiscal illusion and fiscal preferences: evidence from Dutch households Open
It is well documented that the public is often poorly informed about the economy. In the domain of fiscal policy, this may make voters susceptible to favour spending, while underestimating its costs ( fiscal illusion ). While politicians m…
View article: Is the road to hell paved with good intentions? An empirical analysis of budgetary follow-up in the EU
Is the road to hell paved with good intentions? An empirical analysis of budgetary follow-up in the EU Open
We study the one-year-ahead budgetary projections from the Stability and Convergence Programmes (SCPs) of EU Member States since the start of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) until the start of the coronavirus crisis. First, we consid…
View article: Effects of LTV announcements in EU economies
Effects of LTV announcements in EU economies Open
Earlier empirical studies on the effects of macroprudential policies focus on implementation dates and, in most cases, ignore potential anticipation effects. In this paper, we collect monthly data on announcements of loan-to-value (LTV) ra…
View article: Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: Multipliers and follow-up
Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: Multipliers and follow-up Open
Using a new narrative dataset on fiscal consolidation announcements for thirteen EU countries over the period 1978–2013, a panel VAR analysis shows that revenue-based announcements appear more credible, but affect economic activity more ad…
View article: Data and codes for "Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: multipliers and follow-up"
Data and codes for "Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: multipliers and follow-up" Open
These files contain programs to produce the Tables and Figures in the article "Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: multipliers and follow-up," Journal of International Economics
View article: Monetary policy effects in times of negative interest rates
Monetary policy effects in times of negative interest rates Open
Interest rates have declined steadily over the last decades, recently turning negative in Europe and Japan. This column finds that negative interest rates have important implications for bank stock prices. When market interest rates are ne…
View article: Determinants of the bid-to-cover ratio in Eurozone sovereign debt auctions
Determinants of the bid-to-cover ratio in Eurozone sovereign debt auctions Open
Building on a unique dataset of Eurozone sovereign debt auctions, this paper analyzes the determinants of their bid-to-cover ratios, which is the most common measure of the outcome of an auction. We find that the secondary market yield on …
View article: Demand Shocks for Public Debt in the Eurozone
Demand Shocks for Public Debt in the Eurozone Open
In this paper we use intraday government bond futures price changes around German and Italian Treasury auctions to identify unexpected shifts in the demand for public debt. Estimates show that positive demand shocks lead to large negative …
View article: Cross‐Border Auction Cycle Effects of Sovereign Bond Issuance in the Euro Area
Cross‐Border Auction Cycle Effects of Sovereign Bond Issuance in the Euro Area Open
We provide evidence for the euro area of spillovers from foreign public debt auctions into domestic secondary‐market auction cycles. We also confirm existing evidence of such spillovers from domestic issues into the domestic secondary mark…
View article: Bid-to-cover and yield changes around public debt auctions in the euro area
Bid-to-cover and yield changes around public debt auctions in the euro area Open
Earlier research has shown that euro area primary public debt markets affect secondary markets. We find that more successful auctions of euro area public debt, as captured by higher bid-to-cover ratios, lead to lower secondary-market yield…
View article: Political Economy of Redistribution in the United States in the Aftermath of World War II—Evidence and Theory
Political Economy of Redistribution in the United States in the Aftermath of World War II—Evidence and Theory Open
We present legislative, historical and statistical evidence of a substantial upward ratchet in transfers and taxes in the US due to World War II. This finding is explained within a political-economy framework with defense spending respondi…
View article: Replication data for: Political Economy of Redistribution in the United States in the Aftermath of World War II--Evidence and Theory
Replication data for: Political Economy of Redistribution in the United States in the Aftermath of World War II--Evidence and Theory Open
We present legislative, historical and statistical evidence of a substantial upward ratchet in transfers and taxes in the US due to World War II. This finding is explained within a political-economy framework with defense spending respondi…