Mássimo Marinacci
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View article: Climate Policy under Fear of Model Misspecification
Climate Policy under Fear of Model Misspecification Open
Models -including those used in climate change analysis- are rough approximations of reality, and thus 'all wrong'; yet, the implications of model misspecification for climate decision-making have yet to be quantified. Here, we use recent …
View article: Making Decisions Under Model Misspecification
Making Decisions Under Model Misspecification Open
We use decision theory to confront uncertainty that is sufficiently broad to incorporate “models as approximations.” We presume the existence of a featured collection of what we call “structured models” that have explicit substantive motiv…
View article: Affine Gateaux Differentials and the von Mises Statistical Calculus
Affine Gateaux Differentials and the von Mises Statistical Calculus Open
This paper presents a general study of one-dimensional differentiability for functionals defined on convex domains that are not necessarily open. The local approximation is carried out using affine functionals, as opposed to linear functio…
View article: EAP volume 39 issue 3 Cover and Front matter
EAP volume 39 issue 3 Cover and Front matter Open
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.
View article: <i>Presidential Address 2023:</i> The Beauty of Uncertainty: The Rise of Insurance Contracts and Markets in Medieval Europe
<i>Presidential Address 2023:</i> The Beauty of Uncertainty: The Rise of Insurance Contracts and Markets in Medieval Europe Open
Maritime insurance developed in medieval Europe is the ancestor of all forms of insurance that appeared subsequently. We address the question of why modern insurance was first invented in medieval Europe, and neither earlier nor elsewhere.…
View article: Risk Aversion and Insurance Propensity
Risk Aversion and Insurance Propensity Open
We provide a new foundation of risk aversion by showing that this attitude is fully captured by the propensity to seize insurance opportunities. Our foundation, which applies to all probabilistically sophisticated preferences, well accords…
View article: Measuring utility with diffusion models
Measuring utility with diffusion models Open
The drift diffusion model (DDM) is a prominent account of how people make decisions. Many of these decisions involve comparing two alternatives based on differences of perceived stimulus magnitudes, such as economic values. Here, we propos…
View article: Capacities and Choquet Averages of Ultrafilters
Capacities and Choquet Averages of Ultrafilters Open
We show that a normalized capacity $ν: \mathcal{P}(\mathbf{N})\to \mathbf{R}$ is invariant with respect to an ideal $\mathcal{I}$ on $\mathbf{N}$ if and only if it can be represented as a Choquet average of $\{0,1\}$-valued finitely additi…
View article: Algorithmic Decision Processes
Algorithmic Decision Processes Open
We develop a full-fledged analysis of an algorithmic decision process that, in a multialternative choice problem, produces computable choice probabilities and expected decision times.
View article: Recursive Preferences and Ambiguity Attitudes
Recursive Preferences and Ambiguity Attitudes Open
We study the implications of recursivity and state monotonicity in intertemporal consumption problems under ambiguity. We show that monotone recursive preferences admit a recursive and ex-ante representation, both with translation invarian…
View article: On the cardinal utility equivalence of biseparable preferences
On the cardinal utility equivalence of biseparable preferences Open
We establish a simple condition, based on the willingness to bet on events, under which two biseparable preferences have cardinally equivalent utilities
View article: Law of demand and stochastic choice
Law of demand and stochastic choice Open
We consider random choice rules that, by satisfying a weak form of Luce’s choice axiom, embody a form probabilistic rationality. We show that for this important class of stochastic choices, the law of demand for normal goods—arguably the m…
View article: A canon of probabilistic rationality
A canon of probabilistic rationality Open
We prove that a random choice rule satisfies Luce's Choice Axiom if and only if its support is a choice correspondence that satisfies the Weak Axiom of Revealed Preference, thus it consists of alternatives that are optimal according to som…
View article: Rational policymaking during a pandemic
Rational policymaking during a pandemic Open
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in…
View article: Rational policymaking during a pandemic
Rational policymaking during a pandemic Open
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in…
View article: Axiomatic tests for the Boltzmann distribution
Axiomatic tests for the Boltzmann distribution Open
The Boltzmann distribution family describes a single parameter (temperature) class of probability distributions over a state space; at any given temperature, the ratio of probabilities of two states depends exponentially on their differenc…
View article: Ergodic Annealing
Ergodic Annealing Open
Simulated Annealing is the crowning glory of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for the solution of NP-hard optimization problems in which the cost function is known. Here, by replacing the Metropolis engine of Simulated Annealing with a rei…
View article: Ergodic Annealing
Ergodic Annealing Open
Simulated Annealing is the crowning glory of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for the solution of NP-hard optimization problems in which the cost function is known. Here, by replacing the Metropolis engine of Simulated Annealing with a rei…
View article: Sources of Uncertainty and Subjective Prices
Sources of Uncertainty and Subjective Prices Open
We develop a general framework to study source-dependent preferences in economic contexts. We behaviorally identify two key features. First, we drop the assumption of uniform uncertainty attitudes and allow for source-dependent attitudes. …
View article: A Multialternative Neural Decision Process
A Multialternative Neural Decision Process Open
We introduce an algorithmic decision process for multialternative choice that combines binary comparisons and Markovian exploration. We show that a functional property, transitivity, makes it testable.
View article: Multialternative Neural Decision Processes
Multialternative Neural Decision Processes Open
We introduce an algorithmic decision process for multialternative choice that combines binary comparisons and Markovian exploration. We show that a preferential property, transitivity, makes it testable.