Massimo Tavoni
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View article: Beyond the limit: The estimated air pollution damages of overshooting the temperature target
Beyond the limit: The estimated air pollution damages of overshooting the temperature target Open
Exposure to outdoor air pollution results in millions of premature deaths and illnesses that are associated with substantial economic loss. According to the Global Burden of Disease, outdoor air pollution was responsible for 4.7 million de…
View article: Pursuing decarbonization and competitiveness: a narrow corridor for European green industrial transformation
Pursuing decarbonization and competitiveness: a narrow corridor for European green industrial transformation Open
This study analyzes how Europe can decarbonize its industrial sector while remaining competitive. Using the open-source model PyPSA-Eur, it examines key energy- and emission-intensive industries, including steel, cement, methanol, ammonia,…
View article: Climate Policy Feasibility across Europe Relies on the Conditional Middle
Climate Policy Feasibility across Europe Relies on the Conditional Middle Open
Political feasibility of climate policies hinges on persuading the moderate middle of the electorate. A survey evaluates climate policy preferences across 13 EU countries (n=19,328, Summer 2024), identifying `Conditionals', a crucial facti…
View article: gsaot: an R package for Optimal Transport-based sensitivity analysis
gsaot: an R package for Optimal Transport-based sensitivity analysis Open
gsaot is an R package for Optimal Transport-based global sensitivity analysis. It provides a simple interface for indices estimation using a variety of state-of-the-art Optimal Transport solvers such as the network simplex and Sinkhorn-Kno…
View article: Past and Projected Climate Impacts on Human Development
Past and Projected Climate Impacts on Human Development Open
Climate change is characterized by an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events and a rise in the mean temperature. These phenomena threaten economic systems and broader dimensions of human well-being, including health and …
View article: Climate Policy under Fear of Model Misspecification
Climate Policy under Fear of Model Misspecification Open
Models -including those used in climate change analysis- are rough approximations of reality, and thus 'all wrong'; yet, the implications of model misspecification for climate decision-making have yet to be quantified. Here, we use recent …
View article: Global age-dependent population exposure to multiple future climate extremes
Global age-dependent population exposure to multiple future climate extremes Open
In the last decades, climate extremes have become more frequent and severe over most regions of the World. Combined with poor adaptation measures and limited mitigation strategies, such extremes have progressively caused large socioeconomi…
View article: Classifying mega-droughts according to population, land-use, and economic exposure
Classifying mega-droughts according to population, land-use, and economic exposure Open
In recent years, extreme droughts – both on spatial extent and duration – have become more frequent and tend to occur in all continents. Some examples are the consecutive droughts in California in the 2010s and the 2020s, the long-lasting …
View article: Neural Conditional Transport Maps
Neural Conditional Transport Maps Open
We present a neural framework for learning conditional optimal transport (OT) maps between probability distributions. Our approach introduces a conditioning mechanism capable of processing both categorical and continuous conditioning varia…
View article: Net-Zero: A Comparative Study on Neural Network Design for Climate-Economic PDEs Under Uncertainty
Net-Zero: A Comparative Study on Neural Network Design for Climate-Economic PDEs Under Uncertainty Open
Climate-economic modeling under uncertainty presents significant computational challenges that may limit policymakers' ability to address climate change effectively. This paper explores neural network-based approaches for solving high-dime…
View article: Climate Policy Feasibility across Europe Relies on the Conditional Middle
Climate Policy Feasibility across Europe Relies on the Conditional Middle Open
Political feasibility of climate policies hinges on persuading the moderate middle of the electorate. A survey evaluates climate policy preferences across 13 EU countries (n=19,328, Summer 2024), identifying `Conditionals', a crucial facti…
View article: Six Faces of Climate Policy Support in the EU
Six Faces of Climate Policy Support in the EU Open
Climate change mitigation requires urgent policy action from high-income economies, yet its sociopolitical feasibility depends heavily on public support. Drawing on a survey from 13 European countries, we identify Six Faces of climate poli…
View article: Human and land exposure to future recurrent unprecedented extremes
Human and land exposure to future recurrent unprecedented extremes Open
In the last decades, highly impacting climate extremes have become increasingly frequent in many different global hotspots. According to climate projections, such events are likely to become even more severe during the 21st century, to the…
View article: Global sensitivity analysis of integrated assessment models with multivariate outputs
Global sensitivity analysis of integrated assessment models with multivariate outputs Open
Risk assessments of complex systems are often supported by quantitative models. The sophistication of these models and the presence of various uncertainties call for systematic robustness and sensitivity analyses. The multivariate nature o…
View article: Weather- and climate-driven power supply and demand time series for power and energy system analyses
Weather- and climate-driven power supply and demand time series for power and energy system analyses Open
Reaching net-zero carbon emissions requires large shares of intermittent renewable energy and the electrification of end-use consumption, such as heating, making the future energy system highly dependent on weather variability and climate …
View article: Macro-financial transition risks along mitigation pathways: evidence from a hybrid agent-based integrated assessment model
Macro-financial transition risks along mitigation pathways: evidence from a hybrid agent-based integrated assessment model Open
Although the case for a swift climate transition is clear, its macro-financial viability remains uncertain. To shed light on the macroeconomic and financial response to deep mitigation trajectories controlled by carbon pricing, we integrat…
View article: Bring digital twins back to Earth
Bring digital twins back to Earth Open
We reflect on the development of digital twins of the Earth, which we associate with a reductionist view of nature as a machine. The projects of digital twins deviate from contemporary scientific paradigms in the treatment of complexity an…
View article: Evaluating the role of time lag between climate extremes and socioeconomic impacts
Evaluating the role of time lag between climate extremes and socioeconomic impacts Open
In the last decades, climate-related extremes are becoming a recurrent feature in many hotspot regions, as southern Latin America, the Mediterranean, the sub-Saharan Africa, north-eastern China, and southern Australia. Depending on the typ…
View article: Record-breaking European meteorological droughts in 1921-2024
Record-breaking European meteorological droughts in 1921-2024 Open
Pan-European summer drought of 2022 affected different sectors as agriculture, energy, ecosystems, and population health, with both large-scale and local remarkable impacts. In the last decades, similar extreme droughts hit Europe, to the …