Matthew C. Gerstenberger

Overview of TS 1170.5:2025 and changes from NZS 1170.5:2024 Open

Kenneth J. Elwood, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Nick Horspool, Anne Hulsey, Rob Jury , et al. · 2025

This paper provides the background and overview of the development of Technical Specification (TS) 1170.5, released for public comment in February 2024 and published in 2025. The paper also serves as an introduction to the second of two sp…

Assessing the life-safety risk for the proposed technical specification (TS) 1170.5 Open

Anne Hulsey, Ken Elwood, Nick Horspool, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Timothy Sullivan · 2025

The current New Zealand seismic design provisions are expected to be updated with a proposed Technical Specification (TS). The update is motivated primarily by the recent release of the 2022 National Seismic Hazard Model, with new seismic …

Forecasting Recurrent Large Earthquakes From Paleoearthquake and Fault Displacement Data Open

Jonathan Griffin, Ting Wang, Mark Stirling, Matthew C. Gerstenberger · 2025

Long recurrence intervals of large earthquakes relative to the historical record mean that geological data are often utilized to inform forecasts of future events. Geological data from any particular fault may constrain the timing of past …

Testing the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) against observations from Romania Open

Elena Florinela Manea, Laurentiu Danciu, Carmen Ortanza Cioflan, Dragoş Toma-Danilă, Matthew C. Gerstenberger · 2025

Evaluating the performance of probabilistic seismic hazard models against recorded data and their potential to forecast future earthquake ground shaking is an emerging research topic. In this study, we evaluate and test the results of the …

Long-term communication of aftershock forecasts: The Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand Open

Anne Wein, Sara K. McBride, Julia Becker, Annemarie Christophersen, Emma E.H. Doyle , et al. · 2024

Developing, Testing, and Communicating Earthquake Forecasts: Current Practices and Future Directions Open

Leila Mizrahi, Irina Dallo, N. van der Elst, Annemarie Christophersen, Ilaria Spassiani , et al. · 2024

While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible, earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes occurring within some region over time. To enable informed …

Accounting for earthquake rates’ variability through Uniform Rate Zone forecasts in the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand Seismic Hazard Model Open

Pablo Iturrieta, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Chris Rollins, Russ Van Dissen, Ting Wang , et al. · 2024

The distribution of earthquakes in time and space is clustered and may exhibit a non-stationary behaviour. The impacts of non-stationarity are further amplified when the observation window is short compared to the timescales of the underly…

Inverting Geodetic Strain Rates for Slip Deficit Rate in Complex Deforming Zones: An Application to the New Zealand Plate Boundary Open

K. M. Johnson, Laura Wallace, J. Maurer, Ian Hamling, C. A. Williams , et al. · 2024

The potential for future earthquakes on faults is often inferred from inversions of geodetically derived surface velocities for locking on faults using kinematic models such as block models. This can be challenging in complex deforming zon…

Considering uncertainty in the collapse fragility of New Zealand buildings for risk‐targeted seismic design Open

Anne Hulsey, Nick Horspool, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Timothy Sullivan, Kenneth J. Elwood · 2023

The risk‐targeted seismic design framework is used to set design intensities, based on achieving a target risk level (e.g., collapse or fatality risk) with respect to an assumed building collapse response. This paper assesses the distribut…

Are Regionally Calibrated Seismicity Models More Informative than Global Models? Insights from California, New Zealand, and Italy Open

José A. Bayona, William H. Savran, Pablo Iturrieta, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Kenny Graham , et al. · 2023

Earthquake forecasting models express hypotheses about seismogenesis that underpin global and regional probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs). An implicit assumption is that the comparatively higher spatiotemporal resolution data…

Nobody can predict earthquakes, but we can forecast them. Here’s how Open

Dee Ninis, Matthew C. Gerstenberger · 2023

Global and regional long-term M4.95+ seismicity forecasts undergoing prospective evaluation Open

José A. Bayona, William H. Savran, Pablo Iturrieta, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Warner Marzocchi , et al. · 2022

Contains a stationary M5.95+ seismicity forecast derived from the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR1) model of Bird et al. (2015) and nineteen time-invariant M4.95+ earthquake forecasts participating in forecast experiments conducted b…

Global and regional long-term M4.95+ seismicity forecasts undergoing prospective evaluation Open

José A. Bayona, William H. Savran, Pablo Iturrieta, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Warner Marzocchi , et al. · 2022

Contains a stationary M5.95+ seismicity forecast derived from the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR1) model of Bird et al. (2015) and nineteen time-invariant M4.95+ earthquake forecasts participating in forecast experiments conducted b…

Global and regional long-term M4.95+ seismicity forecasts undergoing prospective evaluation Open

José A. Bayona, William H. Savran, Pablo Iturrieta, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Warner Marzocchi , et al. · 2022

Contains a stationary M5.95+ seismicity forecast derived from the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR1) model of Bird et al. (2015) and nineteen time-invariant M4.95+ earthquake forecasts participating in forecast experiments conducted b…

How Useful Are Strain Rates for Estimating the Long-Term Spatial Distribution of Earthquakes? Open

Sepideh J. Rastin, David A. Rhoades, C. Rollins, Matthew C. Gerstenberger · 2022

Strain rates have been included in multiplicative hybrid modelling of the long-term spatial distribution of earthquakes in New Zealand (NZ) since 2017. Previous modelling has shown a strain rate model to be the most informative input to ex…

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities Open

Danijel Schorlemmer, Maximilian J. Werner, Warner Marzocchi, T. H. Jordan, Yosihiko Ogata , et al. · 2018

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP’s goals are to improve our understanding of earth…

Simple Physical Model for the Probability of a Subduction‐ Zone Earthquake Following Slow Slip Events and Earthquakes: Application to the Hikurangi Megathrust, New Zealand Open

Yoshihiro Kaneko, Laura Wallace, Ian Hamling, Matthew C. Gerstenberger · 2018

Slow slip events (SSEs) have been documented in subduction zones worldwide, yet their implications for future earthquake occurrence are not well understood. Here we develop a relatively simple, simulation‐based method for estimating the pr…

Increasing Earthquake Forecast Testability - CSEP Future Developments Open

Danijel Schorlemmer, Naoshi Hirata, Fabrice Cotton, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Warner Marzocchi , et al. · 2018

Earthquakes drive large-scale submarine canyon development and sediment supply to deep-ocean basins Open

Joshu J. Mountjoy, Jamie Howarth, Alan R. Orpin, Philip M. Barnes, David A. Bowden , et al. · 2018

Coseismic canyon flushing reveals how earthquakes drive canyon development and deep-sea sediment dispersal on active margins.

Current Challenges in Statistical Seismology Open

Qinghua Huang, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Jiancang Zhuang · 2016

Retrospective tests of hybrid operational earthquake forecasting models for Canterbury Open

David A. Rhoades, M. Liukis, Annemarie Christophersen, Matthew C. Gerstenberger · 2015

The Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence, which began in September 2010, occurred in a region of low crustal deformation and previously low seismicity. Because, the ensuing seismicity in the region is likely to remain above previou…

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