Matthew Roughan
YOU?
Author Swipe
View article: The impact of intransitivity on the Elo rating system
The impact of intransitivity on the Elo rating system Open
This paper studies the behaviour of the Elo rating system when the underlying modelling assumptions are not met. The Elo rating system is a popular statistical technique used to analyse pairwise comparison data. It is perhaps best known fo…
View article: Evolutionary Generation of Random Surreal Numbers for Benchmarking
Evolutionary Generation of Random Surreal Numbers for Benchmarking Open
There are many areas of scientific endeavour where large, complex datasets are needed for benchmarking. Evolutionary computing provides a means towards creating such sets. As a case study, we consider Conway's Surreal numbers. They have la…
View article: Detecting and Quantifying Networks of Biological Kinship via Exponential Family Random Graph Models
Detecting and Quantifying Networks of Biological Kinship via Exponential Family Random Graph Models Open
Genetic relatedness between ancient humans can help to identify close and distant connections between groups and populations, uncovering signatures of demographic histories such as identifying mating networks or long-range migration. Criti…
View article: Vector autoregression in cryptocurrency markets: unraveling complex causal networks
Vector autoregression in cryptocurrency markets: unraveling complex causal networks Open
Methodologies to infer financial networks from speculative asset price series generally involve predictive modeling to reveal causal and correlational structures. The required model complexity relates to market efficiency, with highly effi…
View article: An intelligent conversational agent for querying satellite manoeuvre detections: a case study
An intelligent conversational agent for querying satellite manoeuvre detections: a case study Open
Space Situational Awareness (SSA) focuses on the observation and monitoring of satellites primarily by earth-based sensors. An important component of SSA is the detection of satellite manoeuvres. Given the large amount of data produced by …
View article: Hierarchical Representations for Evolving Acyclic Vector Autoregressions (HEAVe)
Hierarchical Representations for Evolving Acyclic Vector Autoregressions (HEAVe) Open
Causal networks offer an intuitive framework to understand influence structures within time series systems. However, the presence of cycles can obscure dynamic relationships and hinder hierarchical analysis. These networks are typically id…
View article: An Intelligent Conversational Agent for Querying Satellite Manoeuvre Detections: a Case Study
An Intelligent Conversational Agent for Querying Satellite Manoeuvre Detections: a Case Study Open
Space Situational Awareness (SSA) focuses on the observation and monitoring of satellites primarily by earth-based sensors. An important component of SSA is the detection of satellite manoeuvres. Given the large amount of data produced by …
View article: Performance Analysis: Discovering Semi-Markov Models From Event Logs
Performance Analysis: Discovering Semi-Markov Models From Event Logs Open
Process mining is a well-established discipline of data analysis focused on the discovery of process models from information systems’ event logs. Recently, an emerging subarea of process mining, known as stochastic process discovery, has s…
View article: Elo Ratings in the Presence of Intransitivity
Elo Ratings in the Presence of Intransitivity Open
This paper studies how the Elo rating system behaves when the underlying modelling assumptions are not met.
View article: Enhancing Causal Discovery in Financial Networks with Piecewise Quantile Regression
Enhancing Causal Discovery in Financial Networks with Piecewise Quantile Regression Open
Financial networks can be constructed using statistical dependencies found within the price series of speculative assets. Across the various methods used to infer these networks, there is a general reliance on predictive modelling to captu…
View article: POSTER: Packet Field Tree: a hybrid approach, open database and evaluation methodology for Automated Protocol Reverse-Engineering
POSTER: Packet Field Tree: a hybrid approach, open database and evaluation methodology for Automated Protocol Reverse-Engineering Open
Protocol specifications are useful knowledge for performing penetration testing and building intrusion-detection systems for bespoke networks. However, protocol specifications are typically verbose documents, and when new protocols are tes…
View article: Rank is all you need: development and analysis of robust causal networks
Rank is all you need: development and analysis of robust causal networks Open
Financial networks can be constructed to model the intertemporal price dependencies within an asset market, giving rise to a causal network. These networks are traditionally inferred through multivariate predictive modelling. However, the …
View article: Modified CMA-ES Algorithm for Multi-Modal Optimization: Incorporating Niching Strategies and Dynamic Adaptation Mechanism
Modified CMA-ES Algorithm for Multi-Modal Optimization: Incorporating Niching Strategies and Dynamic Adaptation Mechanism Open
This study modifies the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES) algorithm for multi-modal optimization problems. The enhancements focus on addressing the challenges of multiple global minima, improving the algorithm's abil…
View article: The entropy rate of Linear Additive Markov Processes
The entropy rate of Linear Additive Markov Processes Open
This work derives a theoretical value for the entropy of a Linear Additive Markov Process (LAMP), an expressive but simple model able to generate sequences with a given autocorrelation structure. Our research establishes that the theoretic…
View article: Fast, efficient and accurate prediction of postoperative outcomes using a small set of intraoperative time series
Fast, efficient and accurate prediction of postoperative outcomes using a small set of intraoperative time series Open
In the period immediately following surgery, patients are at high risk of various negative outcomes such as Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) and Myocardial Infarction (MI). Identifying patients at increased risk of developing these complications …
View article: Optimal Proposal Particle Filters for Detecting Anomalies and Manoeuvres from Two Line Element Data
Optimal Proposal Particle Filters for Detecting Anomalies and Manoeuvres from Two Line Element Data Open
Detecting anomalous behaviour of satellites is an important goal within the broader task of space situational awareness. The Two Line Element (TLE) data published by NORAD is the only widely-available, comprehensive source of data for sate…
View article: Vector Autoregression in Cryptocurrency Markets: Unraveling Complex Causal Networks
Vector Autoregression in Cryptocurrency Markets: Unraveling Complex Causal Networks Open
Methodologies to infer financial networks from the price series of speculative assets vary, however, they generally involve bivariate or multivariate predictive modelling to reveal causal and correlational structures within the time series…
View article: A strategic planning model for the operation plan in lamb supply chains
A strategic planning model for the operation plan in lamb supply chains Open
Operations research has been widely applied to support decision-making in the meat processing industry.Several tactical models have been proposed to develop plans for processing the carcases into products.The common practice of a tactical …
View article: Evolving epidemiology of Q fever in Wide Bay
Evolving epidemiology of Q fever in Wide Bay Open
Q fever is a notifiable disease in Australia due to its public health significance. Recent data in the Wide Bay region (Queensland, Australia) suggests a rising number and changing geographical distribution of Q fever cases. This study aim…
View article: Wide-scale Monitoring of Satellite Lifetimes: Pitfalls and a Benchmark Dataset
Wide-scale Monitoring of Satellite Lifetimes: Pitfalls and a Benchmark Dataset Open
An important task within the broader goal of Space Situational Awareness (SSA) is to observe changes in the orbits of satellites, where the data spans thousands of objects over long time scales (decades). The Two-Line Element (TLE) data pr…
View article: The entropy rate of Linear Additive Markov Processes
The entropy rate of Linear Additive Markov Processes Open
This work derives a theoretical value for the entropy of a Linear Additive Markov Process (LAMP), an expressive model able to generate sequences with a given autocorrelation structure. While a first-order Markov Chain model generates new v…
View article: #IStandWithPutin versus #IStandWithUkraine: The interaction of bots and humans in discussion of the Russia/Ukraine war
#IStandWithPutin versus #IStandWithUkraine: The interaction of bots and humans in discussion of the Russia/Ukraine war Open
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine emphasises the role social media plays in modern-day warfare, with conflict occurring in both the physical and information environments. There is a large body of work on identifying malicious cyber-acti…
View article: Performance Analysis: Discovering Semi-Markov Models From Event Logs
Performance Analysis: Discovering Semi-Markov Models From Event Logs Open
Process mining is a well-established discipline of data analysis focused on the discovery of process models from information systems' event logs. Recently, an emerging subarea of process mining, known as stochastic process discovery, has s…
View article: Boolean Expressions in Firewall Analysis
Boolean Expressions in Firewall Analysis Open
Firewall policies are an important line of defence in cybersecurity, specifying which packets are allowed to pass through a network and which are not. These firewall policies are made up of a list of interacting rules. In practice, firewal…
View article: Likelihood-Based Inference for Modelling Packet Transit From Thinned Flow Summaries
Likelihood-Based Inference for Modelling Packet Transit From Thinned Flow Summaries Open
The substantial growth of network traffic speed and volume presents practical challenges to network data analysis. Packet thinning and flow aggregation protocols such as NetFlow reduce the size of datasets by providing structured data summ…
View article: Case Report: Unexpected Remission From Extreme and Enduring Bulimia Nervosa With Repeated Ketamine Assisted Psychotherapy
Case Report: Unexpected Remission From Extreme and Enduring Bulimia Nervosa With Repeated Ketamine Assisted Psychotherapy Open
Background: Bulimia nervosa is a disabling psychiatric disorder that considerably impairs physical health, disrupts psychosocial functioning, and reduces overall quality of life. Despite available treatment, less than half of sufferers ach…