Matthias Seifert
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View article: COVID-19 death toll predictions show that triggering counterfactual thinking deteriorates judgmental performance
COVID-19 death toll predictions show that triggering counterfactual thinking deteriorates judgmental performance Open
Our findings underscore the importance of using debiasing strategies and neutral communication during health crises to mitigate the generation of upward counterfactuals, thus reducing the likelihood of systematic misperceptions and flawed …
View article: Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change
Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change Open
How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly…
View article: Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change Open
How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly stu…
View article: Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change Open
How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly stu…
View article: Near-losses in insurance markets: An experiment
Near-losses in insurance markets: An experiment Open
Several studies report changes in risk taking subsequent to experiencing near-loss events. We disentangle strategic and non-strategic reactions to such near-losses experimentally. We observe that near-losses affect the supply and demand fo…