Maxwell Kelley
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View article: ROCKE-3D 2.0: an updated general circulation model for simulating the climates of rocky planets
ROCKE-3D 2.0: an updated general circulation model for simulating the climates of rocky planets Open
We present the second generation of ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics), a generalized three-dimensional general circulation model (GCM) for use in Solar System and exoplan…
View article: Using Machine Learning to Generate a GISS ModelE Calibrated Physics Ensemble (CPE)
Using Machine Learning to Generate a GISS ModelE Calibrated Physics Ensemble (CPE) Open
A neural network (NN) surrogate of the NASA GISS ModelE atmosphere (version E3) is trained on a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) spanning 45 physics parameters and 36 outputs. The NN is leveraged in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Baye…
View article: Evaluation of upper tropospheric geopotential height anomalies over the tropical and subtropical oceans in CMIP6 models using GNSS radio occultation observations
Evaluation of upper tropospheric geopotential height anomalies over the tropical and subtropical oceans in CMIP6 models using GNSS radio occultation observations Open
We investigate the influence of hydrometeor radiative effects on the winter (DJF) geopotential height anomaly (ZA) over the subtropical and tropical Pacific Oceans in both the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and phase…
View article: ROCKE-3D 2.0: An updated general circulation model for simulating the climates of rocky planets
ROCKE-3D 2.0: An updated general circulation model for simulating the climates of rocky planets Open
We present the second generation of ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics), a generalized 3-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) for use in Solar System and exoplanetar…
View article: Accurate Column Moist Static Energy Budget in Climate Models. Part 1: Conservation Equation Formulation, Methodology, and Primary Results Demonstrated Using GISS ModelE3
Accurate Column Moist Static Energy Budget in Climate Models. Part 1: Conservation Equation Formulation, Methodology, and Primary Results Demonstrated Using GISS ModelE3 Open
Column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) budgets underpin theories of tropical convection and circulation, yet in reanalyses and climate models the budget rarely closes; residuals routinely match the leading terms and mask physical insi…
View article: Influence of More Mechanistic Representation of Particle Dry Deposition on 1850–2000 Changes in Global Aerosol Burdens and Radiative Forcing
Influence of More Mechanistic Representation of Particle Dry Deposition on 1850–2000 Changes in Global Aerosol Burdens and Radiative Forcing Open
Robust estimates of historical changes in aerosols are key for accurate constraints on climate sensitivity. Dry deposition is a primary sink of aerosols from the atmosphere. However, most global climate models do not accurately represent o…
View article: Anomalous Meltwater From Ice Sheets and Ice Shelves Is a Historical Forcing
Anomalous Meltwater From Ice Sheets and Ice Shelves Is a Historical Forcing Open
Recent mass loss from ice sheets and ice shelves is now persistent and prolonged enough that it impacts downstream oceanographic conditions. To demonstrate this, we use an ensemble of coupled GISS‐E2.1‐G simulations forced with historical …
View article: Anomalous Meltwater from Ice Sheets and Ice Shelves is a Historical Forcing
Anomalous Meltwater from Ice Sheets and Ice Shelves is a Historical Forcing Open
Recent mass loss from ice sheets and ice shelves is now persistent and prolonged enough that it impacts downstream oceanographic conditions. To demonstrate this, we use an ensemble of coupled GISS-E2.1-G simulations forced with historical …
View article: Atmospheric Response to a Collapse of the North Atlantic Circulation Under A Mid-Range Future Climate Scenario: A Regime Shift in Northern 2 Hemisphere Dynamics
Atmospheric Response to a Collapse of the North Atlantic Circulation Under A Mid-Range Future Climate Scenario: A Regime Shift in Northern 2 Hemisphere Dynamics Open
Climate models project a future weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), but the impacts of this weakening on climate remain highly uncertain.A key challenge in quantifying the impact of an AMOC decline is in is…
View article: The role of internal variability and feedbacks controlling AMOC stability
The role of internal variability and feedbacks controlling AMOC stability Open
A bi-stable mode of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is found in a 10-member ensemble simulation of the SSP2-4.5 scenario using the NASA GISS-E2-1-G climate model. Local feedbacks in the subpolar North Atlantic region…
View article: The Turning Point of the Aerosol Era
The Turning Point of the Aerosol Era Open
Over the CMIP6 historical period (1850–2014), aerosols provided the largest negative forcing compared to all other climate forcings via their ability to absorb or scatter solar radiation and alter clouds. Aerosols played an important role …
View article: Modeling demographic-driven vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling in NASA GISS's Earth system model (ModelE-BiomeE v.1.0)
Modeling demographic-driven vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling in NASA GISS's Earth system model (ModelE-BiomeE v.1.0) Open
We developed a demographic vegetation model, BiomeE, to improve the modeling of vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycles in the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies' ModelE Earth system model. This model includes the proc…
View article: Model codes and simulation data for "Modeling demographic-driven vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling in NASA GISS's Earth system model (ModelE-BiomeE v.1.0)"
Model codes and simulation data for "Modeling demographic-driven vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling in NASA GISS's Earth system model (ModelE-BiomeE v.1.0)" Open
ModelE-BiomeE v1.0 model codes and data This folder contains the simulation data and model codes that were used in the paper ‘Modeling demographic-driven vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling in NASA GISS’s Earth system …
View article: Model codes and simulation data for "Modeling demographic-driven vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling in NASA GISS's Earth system model (ModelE-BiomeE v.1.0)"
Model codes and simulation data for "Modeling demographic-driven vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling in NASA GISS's Earth system model (ModelE-BiomeE v.1.0)" Open
ModelE-BiomeE v1.0 model codes and data This folder contains the simulation data and model codes that were used in the paper ‘Modeling demographic-driven vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling in NASA GISS’s Earth system …
View article: Responses of compound daytime and nighttime warm-dry and warm-humid events to individual anthropogenic forcings
Responses of compound daytime and nighttime warm-dry and warm-humid events to individual anthropogenic forcings Open
Daytime heat is often associated with reduced soil moisture and cloud cover, while nighttime heat is connected to high humidity and increased cloud cover. Due to these differing mechanisms, compound daytime and nighttime heat events may re…
View article: GISS-ModelE3 lat-lon AMIP cloud-precipitation-radiation outputs for the tun2 (705ml) version
GISS-ModelE3 lat-lon AMIP cloud-precipitation-radiation outputs for the tun2 (705ml) version Open
These files are outputs of GISS-ModelE3 (Cesana et al., 2021) for the lat-lon grid model (144x90x110) and for the configuration named "Tun2" (705ml). There are two monthly mean AMIP runs from 2007 to 2012, one with the effect of precipitat…
View article: GISS-ModelE3 lat-lon AMIP lidar simulator cloud phase outputs (cloud phase diagram) for the Phys (entppe) version
GISS-ModelE3 lat-lon AMIP lidar simulator cloud phase outputs (cloud phase diagram) for the Phys (entppe) version Open
These files are outputs of GISS-ModelE3 (Cesana et al., 2021) for the latlon grid model (144x90x110) and for the configuration named "Phys" (entppe). The run is a monthly mean AMIP run from 2007 to 2014. The files contain the following var…
View article: Comment on gmd-2022-72
Comment on gmd-2022-72 Open
We developed a new demographic vegetation model, BiomeE, to improve the representation of vegetation demographic dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycles in the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies’ ModelE Earth system model. This m…
View article: Comment on gmd-2022-72
Comment on gmd-2022-72 Open
Abstract. We developed a new demographic vegetation model, BiomeE, to improve the representation of vegetation demographic dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycles in the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies’ ModelE Earth system mod…
View article: Modeling demographic-driven vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling in NASA GISS’s Earth system model (ModelE-BiomeE v.1.0)
Modeling demographic-driven vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling in NASA GISS’s Earth system model (ModelE-BiomeE v.1.0) Open
We developed a new demographic vegetation model, BiomeE, to improve the representation of vegetation demographic dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycles in the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies’ ModelE Earth system model. This m…
View article: Future Climate Change Under SSP Emission Scenarios With GISS‐E2.1
Future Climate Change Under SSP Emission Scenarios With GISS‐E2.1 Open
This paper presents the response to anthropogenic forcing in the GISS‐E2.1 climate models for the 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The experimen…
View article: Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Properties Across the Development Cycle of the GISS‐E3 Global Climate Model
Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Properties Across the Development Cycle of the GISS‐E3 Global Climate Model Open
The next‐generation global climate model from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS‐E3, contains many improvements to resolution and physics that allow for improved representation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the model. This …
View article: Snow Reconciles Observed and Simulated Phase Partitioning and Increases Cloud Feedback
Snow Reconciles Observed and Simulated Phase Partitioning and Increases Cloud Feedback Open
The surprising increase of Earth's climate sensitivity in the most recent coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) models has been largely attributed to extratropical cloud feedback, which is thought to be driven by greater supercooled…
View article: The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP
The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP Open
Many nations responded to the corona virus disease‐2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO 2 , other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursor…
View article: A Grand Challenge "Uncertainty Project" to Accelerate Advances in Earth System Predictability: AI-Enabled Concepts and Applications
A Grand Challenge "Uncertainty Project" to Accelerate Advances in Earth System Predictability: AI-Enabled Concepts and Applications Open
This proposal is emerging from GISS ModelE3 ESM development in the area of cloud physics, so we begin with an example of research needs/gaps from that work. Here, some of our greatest development concerns arise where we lack fundamental pr…
View article: Disentangling the Regional Climate Impacts of Competing Vegetation Responses to Elevated Atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>
Disentangling the Regional Climate Impacts of Competing Vegetation Responses to Elevated Atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> Open
Biophysical vegetation responses to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) affect regional hydroclimate through two competing mechanisms. Higher CO 2 increases leaf area (LAI), thereby increasing transpiration and water losses. Simult…
View article: Drivers of Air‐Sea CO<sub>2</sub> Flux Seasonality and its Long‐Term Changes in the NASA‐GISS Model CMIP6 Submission
Drivers of Air‐Sea CO<sub>2</sub> Flux Seasonality and its Long‐Term Changes in the NASA‐GISS Model CMIP6 Submission Open
Climate change will affect both the mean state and seasonality of marine physical and biogeochemical properties, with important implications for the oceanic sink of atmospheric CO 2 . Here, we investigate the seasonal cycle of the air‐sea …
View article: CMIP6 Historical Simulations (1850–2014) With GISS‐E2.1
CMIP6 Historical Simulations (1850–2014) With GISS‐E2.1 Open
Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period 1850–2014, characterized by the emergence of anthropogenic climate drivers like greenhouse gases, are presented for different configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) …
View article: Global Carbon Cycle and Climate Feedbacks in the NASA GISS ModelE2.1
Global Carbon Cycle and Climate Feedbacks in the NASA GISS ModelE2.1 Open
We present results from the NASA GISS ModelE2.1‐G‐CC Earth System Model with coupled climate‐carbon cycle simulations that were submitted to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Coupled Climate‐Carbon Cycle …
View article: GISS‐E2.1: Configurations and Climatology
GISS‐E2.1: Configurations and Climatology Open
This paper describes the GISS‐E2.1 contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). This model version differs from the predecessor model (GISS‐E2) chiefly due to parameterization improvements to the atmospheric …