Michael S. Lewis‐Beck

Economic matters: the 2024 European Parliament elections Open

Martin Okolikj, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2025

Using European Election Study (EES) surveys (2004 to 2024) from the six founding members (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands) of the European Union, we examine how economic perceptions affect vote choice in the Eu…

Forecasting Referendums: A Structural Model Predicting Adoption and Support in Irish Plebiscites 1968–2024 Open

Stephen Quinlan, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck, Matt Qvortrup · 2025

Election prediction flourishes among pollsters, the media, academics, and political anoraks, with four significant prognostic paradigms: opinion polls, markets, structural models, and hybrid approaches. Structural models, inspired by polit…

Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game? Open

John Kenny, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2025

The Political Economy Model: Presidential Forecast for 2024 Open

Charles Tien, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2024

Our political economy model, as it has come to be called, has offered up forecasts of the American presidential election outcome since the early 1980s. The model, based on referendum theory, as measured by the job performance of the presid…

A Political History Forecast of the 2024 US Congressional Elections Open

Michael S. Lewis‐Beck, Stephen Quinlan · 2024

Statesman and scholar Alexis de Tocqueville (1876) once noted, “History is a gallery of pictures in which there are few originals and many copies.” In other words, history has a habit of repeating itself, and we can deduce cycles and patte…

Forecasting presidential elections: Accuracy of ANES voter intentions Open

Hyein Ko, Natalie Jackson, Tracy Osborn, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2024

Despite research on the accuracy of polls as tools for forecasting presidential elections, we lack an assessment of how accurately the ANES, arguably the most used survey in political science, measures aggregate vote intention relative to …

Predicting bloc support in Irish general elections 1951–2020: A political history model Open

Stephen Quinlan, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2022

Election forecasting is a growing enterprise. Structural models relying on “fundamental” political and economic variables, principally to predict government performance, are popular in political science. Conventional wisdom though is these…

Macroeconomy and macropartisanship: Economic conditions and party identification Open

Martin Okolikj, Stephen Quinlan, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2022

“It's the economy stupid”—is the phrase that captures the ubiquity of economics in determining election outcomes. Nevertheless, while several studies support the premise of economic voting, a constant critique of valence economic models is…

Forecasting Elections in Latin America: an Overview Open

María Celeste Ratto, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck, Éric Bélanger · 2022

Replication Data for: Citizen Forecasting: The 2022 French Presidential Elections Open

Yannick Dufresne, Bruno Jérôme, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck, Andreas Murr, Justin Savoie · 2022

Replication material for Citizen Forecasting: The 2022 French Presidential Elections. This paper is part of the PS Symposium on the 2022 French Presidential Elections.

Argentinian Elections Open

María Celeste Ratto, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2021

Election forecasts, based on public opinion polls or statistical structural models, regularly appear before national elections in established democracies around the world. However, in less established democratic systems, such as those in L…

Brexit and prosperity but defeat: the economic vote conundrum in the 2020 Irish election Open

Michael S. Lewis‐Beck, Stephen Quinlan · 2021

At face, Ireland's economy had staged a remarkable recovery by 2020 since the devastating impact of the Global Financial Crisis. The economy was the fastest growing in Europe, unemployment had reached record lows, and Ireland's debt was ba…

Replication Data for: Citizen Forecasts of the 2021 German Election Open

Andreas Murr, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2021

Systematic methods of forecasting elections vary and include reliance on polls, models, and markets. For the German case, most of the work has utilized models or polls. With respect to the use of polls, those efforts have focused almost ex…

The European Union and political behaviour: The shadow of the Great Recession Open

Marina Costa Lobo, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2021

Replication Materials for: More ‘Europe’, less Democracy? European integration does not erode satisfaction with democracy Open

Ruth Dassonneville, Alexandra Jabbour, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2021

The process of European integration, through institutions such as the European Union, the Eurozone, or Schengen, implies a shift in political decision-making away from the national governments and towards international institutions. This g…

La loi de Duverger est-elle valide ? Open

André Blais, Ruth Dassonneville, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2021

Replication Data for: Support for Progressive Taxation: Self-Interest (Rightly Understood), Ideology, and Political Sophistication Open

Dieter Stiers, Marc Hooghe, Silke Goubin, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2020

Progressive tax rates are one of the main instruments for redistribution within advanced liberal democracies. In this study, we investigate public support for this policy. In our analysis of a novel question included in the Belgian Elector…

The Danish Voter Open

Rune Stubager, Kasper Møller Hansen, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck, Richard Nadeau · 2020

To many international experts, politicians, and commentators, Denmark stands out as an ideal society with a well-functioning welfare state, low levels of corruption, and a high degree of social and political stability. Like other countries…

Asking people in each state who they think will win suggests that the presidential election may be very close. Open

Michael S. Lewis‐Beck, Andreas Murr · 2020

In new survey research, Andreas E. Murr and Michael S. Lewis-Beck asked people in each of the 50 states and Washington DC who they thought would win their state in the presidential election. Adding up their raw data, their survey suggests …

Comparative Democracy Redux: The Economic Development Thesis 1972-2014 Open

Ross E. Burkhart, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2020

This paper replicates the analysis conducted in Burkhart and Lewis-Beck (1994), using current statistical software, where economic development demonstrates a causal relationship to democracy in an extensive cross-national dataset from 1972…

Replication Data for: Citizen Forecasting 2020: A State-by-State Experiment Open

Andreas Murr, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2020

The research uses 'citizen forecasts' to predict the US Presidential Election. This approach asks citizens to forecast which presidential candidate will win in their state and the nation as a whole, and predicts the winning candidate to be…

Pollster problems in the 2016 US presidential election: vote intention, vote prediction Open

Natalie Jackson, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck, Charles Tien · 2020

In recent US presidential elections, there has been considerable focus on how well public opinion can forecast the outcome, and 2016 proved no exception. Pollsters and poll aggregators regularly offered numbers on the horse-race, usually p…

Policy Polarization, Income Inequality and Turnout Open

Matthew Polacko, Oliver Heath, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck, Ruth Dassonneville · 2020

Past research on the relationship between income inequality and turnout has produced mixed results, with some studies suggesting that income inequality leads to lower turnout while other studies find little or no significant effects. In th…

A political economy forecast of Ireland’s 2020 general election: government seat losses less than assumed? Open

Michael S. Lewis‐Beck, Stephen Quinlan · 2020

Ireland votes in a general election on Saturday, 8 February. Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Stephen Quinlan explain how a new forecast model suggests that Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael will lose seats, but perhaps fewer than opinion polls currently …

ElectoralCollege2020-survey-ps.svg Open

Andreas Murr, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2020

Creates the electoral map.

log-file-analysis.pdf Open

Andreas Murr, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2020

:unav

readme.txt Open

Andreas Murr, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2020

Explains the files and folders.

MturkNation3.RData Open

Andreas Murr, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2020

Contains the national forecasts collected on MTurk.

log-file-analysis.pdf Open

Andreas Murr, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2020

Contains the R code and output of analysis.R

PresidentialElectionResultsNation1948to2016.tab Open

Andreas Murr, Michael S. Lewis‐Beck · 2020

Contains past national election results.

Michael S. Lewis‐Beck YOU? Author Swipe