Michael C. Dietze
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View article: Parameter Estimation in Land Surface Models: Challenges and Opportunities With Data Assimilation and Machine Learning
Parameter Estimation in Land Surface Models: Challenges and Opportunities With Data Assimilation and Machine Learning Open
Accurately predicting terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change over long‐timescales is crucial for addressing global challenges. This relies on mechanistic modeling of ecosystem processes through land surface models (LSMs). Despit…
View article: Incorporating weather and host abundance in an iterative subseasonal-to-interannual ecological forecast system for <i>Ixodes scapularis</i>, the vector of Lyme disease
Incorporating weather and host abundance in an iterative subseasonal-to-interannual ecological forecast system for <i>Ixodes scapularis</i>, the vector of Lyme disease Open
Forecasting the population dynamics of disease vectors is critical for mitigating the risks of vector-borne diseases under a changing climate. We evaluate an iterative Bayesian forecast model of black-legged tick ( Ixodes scapularis ) phen…
View article: Mechanistic pathways of tick exposure risk in native and invaded plant communities
Mechanistic pathways of tick exposure risk in native and invaded plant communities Open
Plant invasions may alter disease vector abundance by several mechanistic pathways, including modifying microclimates that influence vector survival or changing habitats to influence host use. Here, we used a field experiment and observati…
View article: The uncertainty partitioning of the terrestrial C cycling over CONUS NEON sites using model-data fusion
The uncertainty partitioning of the terrestrial C cycling over CONUS NEON sites using model-data fusion Open
Accurate inventories of terrestrial carbon pools and fluxes are crucial for understanding ecosystem processes, tracking climate change impacts, and meeting the monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) requirements in international tre…
View article: Best practices in software development for robust and reproducible geoscientific models based on insights from the Global Carbon Project models
Best practices in software development for robust and reproducible geoscientific models based on insights from the Global Carbon Project models Open
Computational models play an increasingly vital role in scientific research, by numerically simulating processes that cannot be solved analytically. Such models are fundamental in geosciences and offer critical insights into the impacts of…
View article: The PEcAn+SIPNET Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Reanalysis: Development and Validation
The PEcAn+SIPNET Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Reanalysis: Development and Validation Open
Improving our ability to understand and predict the dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle remains a pressing challenge despite a rapidly growing volume and diversity of Earth Observation data. State data assimilation represents a path f…
View article: Insights Into Nature‐Based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability
Insights Into Nature‐Based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability Open
Successful implementation of forest management as a nature‐based climate solution is dependent on the durability of management‐induced changes in forest carbon storage and sequestration. As forests face unprecedented stability risks in the…
View article: Harvest Legacies and Climate Change Interact to Shape Forest Structure and Biomass Through Time
Harvest Legacies and Climate Change Interact to Shape Forest Structure and Biomass Through Time Open
View article: Predicting disturbance probabilities and magnitudes during insect outbreaks: a test case in southern New England
Predicting disturbance probabilities and magnitudes during insect outbreaks: a test case in southern New England Open
View article: Mechanistic pathways of tick exposure risk in native and invaded plant communities
Mechanistic pathways of tick exposure risk in native and invaded plant communities Open
Plant invasions may alter disease vector abundance by several mechanistic pathways, including modifying microclimates that influence vector survival or changing habitats to influence host use. Here, we used a field experiment and observati…
View article: Forecasting the soil microbiome at a continental scale
Forecasting the soil microbiome at a continental scale Open
Despite the critical role of soil microorganisms in ecosystem processes, it is unclear how well we can anticipate changes in the Earth's microbiome before they occur. To test this, we integrated continental-scale, standardized soil genomic…
View article: Near-term ecological forecasting for climate change action
Near-term ecological forecasting for climate change action Open
View article: Characterizing and communicating uncertainty: lessons from NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System
Characterizing and communicating uncertainty: lessons from NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System Open
Navigating uncertainty is a critical challenge in all fields of science, especially when translating knowledge into real-world policies or management decisions. However, the wide variance in concepts and definitions of uncertainty across s…
View article: A modified matrix model captures the population dynamics for the primary vector of Lyme disease in North America
A modified matrix model captures the population dynamics for the primary vector of Lyme disease in North America Open
Lyme disease, the most prevalent tick‐borne disease in North America, is caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi , and in the eastern and central United States, it is spread to humans by the black‐legged tick ( Ixodes scapularis ). Du…
View article: The Relationship Between Maturation Size and Maximum Tree Size From Tropical to Boreal Climates
The Relationship Between Maturation Size and Maximum Tree Size From Tropical to Boreal Climates Open
The fundamental trade‐off between current and future reproduction has long been considered to result in a tendency for species that can grow large to begin reproduction at a larger size. Due to the prolonged time required to reach maturity…
View article: The impact of the 2023-2024 drought on intact Amazon forests’ productivity
The impact of the 2023-2024 drought on intact Amazon forests’ productivity Open
In the Amazon, the dry season of 2023 as well as the beginning of the wet season in 2024 were marked by unprecedented high temperatures and large precipitation deficits. While the tropical forests in the Amazon play a crucial role in the g…
View article: Insights for Nature-based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability
Insights for Nature-based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability Open
Successful implementation of forest management as a Nature-based Climate Solution is dependent on the durability of management-induced changes in forest carbon storage and sequestration. As forests face unprecedented stability risks in the…
View article: Intact Amazon forests hit a record low gross primary productivity level in 2023-2024
Intact Amazon forests hit a record low gross primary productivity level in 2023-2024 Open
In the Amazon, the dry season of 2023 as well as the beginning of the wet season in 2024 were marked by unprecedented high temperatures and large precipitation deficits. While the tropical forests in the Amazon play a crucial role in the g…
View article: Intact Amazon forests hit a record low gross primary productivity level in 2023-2024
Intact Amazon forests hit a record low gross primary productivity level in 2023-2024 Open
In the Amazon, the dry season of 2023 as well as the beginning of the wet season in 2024 were marked by unprecedented high temperatures and large precipitation deficits. While the tropical forests in the Amazon play a crucial role in the g…
View article: An effective machine learning approach for predicting near real-time ecosystem carbon cycle
An effective machine learning approach for predicting near real-time ecosystem carbon cycle Open
Tropical forests store about half of the world’s above ground carbon and act as critical climate regulators as they absorbed one third of the global CO2 emissions over the past decades. These estimates of the present-day (and future)…
View article: Predicting spring phenology in deciduous broadleaf forests: NEON phenology forecasting community challenge
Predicting spring phenology in deciduous broadleaf forests: NEON phenology forecasting community challenge Open
View article: A community convention for ecological forecasting: Output files and metadata version 1.0
A community convention for ecological forecasting: Output files and metadata version 1.0 Open
This paper summarizes the open community conventions developed by the Ecological Forecasting Initiative (EFI) for the common formatting and archiving of ecological forecasts and the metadata associated with these forecasts. Such open stand…
View article: Submitted forecasts and analysis code for "Predicting spring phenology in deciduous broadleaf forests: NEON Phenology Forecasting Community Challenge"
Submitted forecasts and analysis code for "Predicting spring phenology in deciduous broadleaf forests: NEON Phenology Forecasting Community Challenge" Open
Submitted forecasts for the 2021 Ecological Forecasting Initiative NEON Phenology Forecast Challenge and the analysis code for the accompanying manuscript.
View article: Submitted forecasts and analysis code for "Predicting spring phenology in deciduous broadleaf forests: NEON Phenology Forecasting Community Challenge"
Submitted forecasts and analysis code for "Predicting spring phenology in deciduous broadleaf forests: NEON Phenology Forecasting Community Challenge" Open
Submitted forecasts for the 2021 Ecological Forecasting Initiative NEON Phenology Forecast Challenge and the analysis code for the accompanying manuscript.
View article: Masting is uncommon in trees that depend on mutualist dispersers in the context of global climate and fertility gradients
Masting is uncommon in trees that depend on mutualist dispersers in the context of global climate and fertility gradients Open
View article: A trigger may not be necessary to cause senescence in deciduous broadleaf forests
A trigger may not be necessary to cause senescence in deciduous broadleaf forests Open
Plant phenological changes drive many ecosystem processes and are a key ecological indicator of climate change. Traditional models represent the onset of autumn leaf senescence, or color change, as a threshold response triggered by the acc…
View article: The<scp>NEON</scp>Ecological Forecasting Challenge
The<span>NEON</span>Ecological Forecasting Challenge Open
The 21st century continues to be characterized by major changes to the environment and the ecosystem services upon which society depends. Anticipating and responding to these changes requires that scientists explicitly forecast future cond…
View article: Linking seed size and number to trait syndromes in trees
Linking seed size and number to trait syndromes in trees Open
Aim Our understanding of the mechanisms that maintain forest diversity under changing climate can benefit from knowledge about traits that are closely linked to fitness. We tested whether the link between traits and seed number and seed si…
View article: Predicting Spring Phenology in Deciduous Broadleaf Forests: Neon Phenology Forecasting Community Challenge
Predicting Spring Phenology in Deciduous Broadleaf Forests: Neon Phenology Forecasting Community Challenge Open
View article: Priorities for synthesis research in ecology and environmental science
Priorities for synthesis research in ecology and environmental science Open
Synthesis research in ecology and environmental science improves understanding, advances theory, identifies research priorities, and supports management strategies by linking data, ideas, and tools. Accelerating environmental challenges in…