Michael Elsby
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View article: Population Growth, Immigration, and Labor Market Dynamics
Population Growth, Immigration, and Labor Market Dynamics Open
This article provides a first synthesis of population flows and labor market dynamics across immigrant and native-born populations. We devise a novel dynamic accounting methodology that integrates population flows from two sources—changes …
View article: Wage adjustment in efficient long-term employment relationships
Wage adjustment in efficient long-term employment relationships Open
We present a model in which efficient long-term employment relationships are sustained by wage adjustments prompted by shocks to idiosyncratic productivity and the arrival of outside job offers. In accordance with casual and formal evidenc…
View article: Vacancy Chains
Vacancy Chains Open
Replacement hiring-recruitment that seeks to replace positions vacated by workers who quit-plays a central role in establishment dynamics.We document this phenomenon using rich microdata on U.S. establishments, which frequently report no n…
View article: Firm Dynamics, On-the-Job Search, and Labor Market Fluctuations
Firm Dynamics, On-the-Job Search, and Labor Market Fluctuations Open
We devise a tractable model of firm dynamics with on-the-job search. The model admits analytical solutions for equilibrium outcomes, including quit, layoff, hiring, and vacancy-filling rates, as well as the distributions of job values, a f…
View article: Replication package for: Firm Dynamics, On-the-Job Search and Labor Market Fluctuations
Replication package for: Firm Dynamics, On-the-Job Search and Labor Market Fluctuations Open
Replication files for the numerical results reported in: Elsby, Michael W. L. and Axel Gottfries. Forthcoming. “Firm Dynamics, On-the-Job Search and Labor Market Fluctuations.” Review of Economic Studies.
View article: Vacancy Chains
Vacancy Chains Open
Replacement hiring-recruitment that seeks to replace positions vacated by workers who quit-plays a central role in establishment dynamics.We document this phenomenon using rich microdata on U.S. establishments, which frequently report no n…
View article: How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? International Evidence from Payroll Records and Pay Slips
How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? International Evidence from Payroll Records and Pay Slips Open
For more than 80 years, many macroeconomic analyses have been premised on the assumption that workers’ nominal wage rates cannot be cut. Contrary evidence from household surveys reasonably has been discounted on the grounds that the measur…
View article: How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? International Evidence from Payroll Records and Pay Slips
How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? International Evidence from Payroll Records and Pay Slips Open
For more than 80 years, many macroeconomic analyses have been premised on the assumption that workers' nominal wage rates cannot be cut. Contrary evidence from household surveys reasonably has been discounted on the ground that the measure…
View article: Replication data for: Flow Origins of Labor Force Participation Fluctuations
Replication data for: Flow Origins of Labor Force Participation Fluctuations Open
We investigate the origins of cyclical and trend movements in the labor force participation rate (LFPR) using a three-state flow decomposition. The procyclicality of LFPR can be traced to cyclical flows between employment and unemployment.…
View article: The aggregate effects of labor market frictions
The aggregate effects of labor market frictions Open
Labor market frictions are able to induce sluggish aggregate employment dynamics. However, these frictions have strong implications for the source of this propagation: they distort the path of aggregate employment by impeding the flow of l…
View article: How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? International Evidence from Payroll Records and Pay Slips
How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? International Evidence from Payroll Records and Pay Slips Open
For more than 80 years, many macroeconomic analyses have been premised on the assumption that workers' nominal wage rates cannot be cut.Contrary evidence from household surveys reasonably has been discounted on the ground that the measurem…
View article: Fixed adjustment costs and aggregate fluctuations
Fixed adjustment costs and aggregate fluctuations Open
This paper studies the analytics of a canonical model of lumpy microeconomic adjustment. We provide a novel characterization of the implied aggregate dynamics. In general, the distribution of firm outcomes follows a simple and intuitive la…
View article: The Aggregate Effects of Labor Market Frictions
The Aggregate Effects of Labor Market Frictions Open
Labor market frictions are able to induce sluggish aggregate employment dynamics. However, these frictions have strong implications for the source of this propagation: They distort the path of aggregate employment by impeding the flow of l…
View article: Wage Adjustment in the Great Recession and Other Downturns: Evidence from the United States and Great Britain
Wage Adjustment in the Great Recession and Other Downturns: Evidence from the United States and Great Britain Open
Using 1979-2012 CPS data for the United States and 1975-2012 NES data for Great Britain, we study wage behavior in both countries, with particular attention to the Great Recession. Real wages are procyclical in both countries, but the proc…
View article: The Beveridge Curve: A Survey
The Beveridge Curve: A Survey Open
Important progress has been made in economists' understanding of the Beveridge curve, from its measurement to its expression in canonical labor market models. Yet enduring puzzles remain. Chief among these are the empirical role of vacanci…