Bryan T. Grenfell
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View article: Interplay between climate and childhood mixing can explain a sudden shift in RSV seasonality in Japan
Interplay between climate and childhood mixing can explain a sudden shift in RSV seasonality in Japan Open
Titrating the importance of endogenous and exogenous drivers for host-pathogen systems remains an important research frontier towards predicting future outbreaks. In Japan, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a major childhood respiratory p…
View article: Reconstructing the early spatial spread of pandemic respiratory viruses in the United States
Reconstructing the early spatial spread of pandemic respiratory viruses in the United States Open
Understanding the geographic spread of emerging respiratory viruses is critical for pandemic preparedness, yet the early spatiotemporal dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza and SARS-CoV-2 in the United States (US) remain unclear. W…
View article: Urban environment and RSV: a retrospective observational study of neighbourhood factors associated with the risk of severe disease in the infant population of a metropolitan area, Lyon, France
Urban environment and RSV: a retrospective observational study of neighbourhood factors associated with the risk of severe disease in the infant population of a metropolitan area, Lyon, France Open
Substantial neighbourhood-level differences in RSV SARI incidence exist in a large European metropolis. These differences are associated with the urban environment such as particulate pollution. The use of spectral indices shows promise in…
View article: Spatio–temporal modelling of <i>in vitro</i> influenza A virus infection: the impact of defective interfering particles on type I interferon response
Spatio–temporal modelling of <i>in vitro</i> influenza A virus infection: the impact of defective interfering particles on type I interferon response Open
Defective interfering particles (DIPs) are incomplete viral genomes that modulate infection by competing with wild–type viruses and activating innate immunity. How DIPs interact with type I interferon (IFN) in spatially structured environm…
View article: Optimal sampling frequency and site selection for wastewater and environmental surveillance of infectious pathogens: A value of information assessment
Optimal sampling frequency and site selection for wastewater and environmental surveillance of infectious pathogens: A value of information assessment Open
Wastewater and environmental surveillance (WES) is a promising method of detecting infectious diseases in human and animal populations and offers significant advantages over traditional surveillance methods in the early detection of outbre…
View article: Susceptible host dynamics explain pathogen resilience to perturbations
Susceptible host dynamics explain pathogen resilience to perturbations Open
Interventions to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 significantly disrupted the transmission of other pathogens. As interventions lifted, whether and when human pathogens would eventually return to their pre-pandemic dynamics remains to be answ…
View article: Complex multiannual cycles of Mycoplasma pneumoniae: persistence and the role of stochasticity
Complex multiannual cycles of Mycoplasma pneumoniae: persistence and the role of stochasticity Open
The epidemiological dynamics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae is characterized by poorly understood complex multiannual cycles. The origins of these cycles have long been debated, and multiple explanations of varying complexity have been suggested…
View article: The complex interplay between risk tolerance and the spread of infectious diseases
The complex interplay between risk tolerance and the spread of infectious diseases Open
Risk-driven behaviour provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce a general and flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in the popu…
View article: Eco-evolutionary dynamics of pathogen immune-escape: deriving a population-level phylodynamic curve
Eco-evolutionary dynamics of pathogen immune-escape: deriving a population-level phylodynamic curve Open
The phylodynamic curve (Grenfell et al . 2004 Science 303 , 327–332 (doi: 10.1126/science.1090727 )) conceptualizes how immunity shapes the rate of viral adaptation in a non-monotonic fashion, through its opposing effects on viral abundanc…
View article: The roles of pre-season immunity, age, viral shedding, and community exposures in shaping influenza household transmission dynamics
The roles of pre-season immunity, age, viral shedding, and community exposures in shaping influenza household transmission dynamics Open
Our understanding of influenza transmission remains imperfect due to the high prevalence of asymptomatic infections that often go undetected. To address this challenge, we leveraged uniquely resolved data from a household cohort study span…
View article: Interplay between climate, childhood mixing, and population-level susceptibility explains a sudden shift in RSV seasonality in Japan
Interplay between climate, childhood mixing, and population-level susceptibility explains a sudden shift in RSV seasonality in Japan Open
Titrating the relative importance of endogenous and exogenous drivers for dynamical transitions in host-pathogen systems remains an important research frontier towards predicting future outbreaks and making public health decisions. In Japa…
View article: Drought dynamics explain once in a century yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil with implications for climate change
Drought dynamics explain once in a century yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil with implications for climate change Open
While excess rainfall is associated with mosquito-borne disease because it supports mosquito breeding, drought may also counterintuitively increase disease transmission by altering mosquito and host behavior. This phenomenon is important t…
View article: Intersecting Memories of Immunity and Climate: Potential Multiyear Impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Infectious Disease Spread
Intersecting Memories of Immunity and Climate: Potential Multiyear Impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Infectious Disease Spread Open
Climate and infectious diseases each present critical challenges on a warming planet, as does the influence of climate on disease. Both are governed by nonlinear feedbacks, which drive multi‐annual cycles in disease outbreaks and weather p…
View article: Predicting the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 on Mycoplasma pneumoniae in the United States
Predicting the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 on Mycoplasma pneumoniae in the United States Open
The introduction of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 disrupted circulation of many respiratory pathogens and eventually caused large, delayed outbreaks, owing to the build up of the susceptible pool during the inter…
View article: Deep neural networks for endemic measles dynamics: Comparative analysis and integration with mechanistic models
Deep neural networks for endemic measles dynamics: Comparative analysis and integration with mechanistic models Open
Measles is an important infectious disease system both for its burden on public health and as an opportunity for studying nonlinear spatio-temporal disease dynamics. Traditional mechanistic models often struggle to fully capture the comple…
View article: Modeling the population-level impact of a third dose of MMR vaccine on a mumps outbreak at the University of Iowa
Modeling the population-level impact of a third dose of MMR vaccine on a mumps outbreak at the University of Iowa Open
Mumps outbreaks among fully vaccinated young adults have raised questions about potential waning of immunity over time and need for a third dose of the measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine. However, there are currently limited data on rea…
View article: Adaptive human behaviour modulates the impact of immune life history and vaccination on long-term epidemic dynamics
Adaptive human behaviour modulates the impact of immune life history and vaccination on long-term epidemic dynamics Open
The multiple immunity responses exhibited in the population and co-circulating variants documented during pandemics show a high potential to generate diverse long-term epidemiological scenarios. Transmission variability, immune uncertainti…
View article: Predicting the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 on<i>Mycoplasma pneumoniae</i>in the United States
Predicting the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 on<i>Mycoplasma pneumoniae</i>in the United States Open
The introduction of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 disrupted circulation of many respiratory pathogens and eventually caused large, delayed outbreaks, owing to the build up of the susceptible pool during the inter…
View article: Impact of waning immunity against SARS-CoV-2 severity exacerbated by vaccine hesitancy
Impact of waning immunity against SARS-CoV-2 severity exacerbated by vaccine hesitancy Open
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has generated a considerable number of infections and associated morbidity and mortality across the world. Recovery from these infections, combined with the onset of large-scale vaccination, have led to rapidly-chan…
View article: One hundred years of influenza A evolution
One hundred years of influenza A evolution Open
Leveraging the simplicity of nucleotide mismatch distributions, we provide an intuitive window into the evolution of the human influenza A 'nonstructural' (NS) gene segment. In an analysis suggested by the eminent Danish biologist Freddy B…
View article: Eco-evolutionary dynamics of pathogen immune-escape: deriving a population-level phylodynamic curve
Eco-evolutionary dynamics of pathogen immune-escape: deriving a population-level phylodynamic curve Open
The phylodynamic curve [1] conceptualizes how immunity shapes the rate of viral adaptation in a non-monotonic fashion, through its opposing effects on viral abundance and the strength of selection. However, concrete and quantitative model …
View article: The complex interplay between risk tolerance and the spread of infectious diseases
The complex interplay between risk tolerance and the spread of infectious diseases Open
A bstract Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce a general and flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in…
View article: The Complex Interplay Between Risk Tolerance and the Spread of Infectious Diseases
The Complex Interplay Between Risk Tolerance and the Spread of Infectious Diseases Open
Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce a general and flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in the popul…
View article: Assessing population-level target product profiles of universal human influenza A vaccines
Assessing population-level target product profiles of universal human influenza A vaccines Open
Influenza A has two hemagglutinin groups, with stronger cross-immunity to reinfection within than between groups. Here, we explore the implications of this heterogeneity for proposed cross-protective influenza vaccines that may offer broad…
View article: Differential impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on the epidemiological dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus subtypes A and B
Differential impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on the epidemiological dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus subtypes A and B Open
Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic have disrupted the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) on a global scale; however, the cycling of RSV subtypes in the pre- and post-pandemic period r…
View article: Neural networks for endemic measles dynamics: comparative analysis and integration with mechanistic models
Neural networks for endemic measles dynamics: comparative analysis and integration with mechanistic models Open
Measles is an important infectious disease system both for its burden on public health and as an opportunity for studying nonlinear spatio-temporal disease dynamics. Traditional mechanistic models often struggle to fully capture the comple…
View article: A unified theory for predicting pathogen mutual invasibility and co-circulation
A unified theory for predicting pathogen mutual invasibility and co-circulation Open
A key aim in the dynamics and control of infectious diseases is predicting competitive outcomes of pathogen interactions. Observed pathogen community structure indicates both considerable coexistence of related variants and spectacular ins…