Moritz Schularick
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View article: Superstar Returns? Spatial Heterogeneity in Returns to Housing
Superstar Returns? Spatial Heterogeneity in Returns to Housing Open
This paper makes the first comprehensive attempt to study within‐country heterogeneity of housing returns. We introduce a new city‐level data set covering 15 OECD countries over 150 years and show that national housing markets are characte…
View article: The distribution of household debt in the United States, 1950-2022
The distribution of household debt in the United States, 1950-2022 Open
Using new household-level data, we study the secular increase in U.S. household debt and its distribution since 1950. Most of the debt were mortgages, which initially grew because more households borrowed. Yet after 1980, debt mostly grew …
View article: What if? The macroeconomic and distributional effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia
What if? The macroeconomic and distributional effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia Open
This paper discusses the economic effects of a potential cut‐off of the German economy from Russian energy imports. We use a multi‐sector open‐economy model and a simplified approach based on an aggregate production function to estimate th…
View article: Ökonomische Folgen: Was Kriege die Welt kosten
Ökonomische Folgen: Was Kriege die Welt kosten Open
Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, we offers insights into the far-reaching consequences of wars. Based on a new dataset on major conflicts since 1870, the findings show that wars cause a substantial decline in GDP and spike in inflati…
View article: Unemployment Risk, Portfolio Choice, and the Racial Wealth Gap
Unemployment Risk, Portfolio Choice, and the Racial Wealth Gap Open
Black Americans face higher cyclical unemployment risk than white Americans: job-finding rates during recessions are lower and the risk of becoming long-term unemployed is higher. Differences in unemployment risk across Black and white Ame…
View article: Interest Rates and the Spatial Polarization of Housing Markets
Interest Rates and the Spatial Polarization of Housing Markets Open
Rising within-country differences in house values are a much-debated trend in the United States and internationally. Using new long-run regional data for 15 advanced economies, we show that standard explanations linking growing price dispe…
View article: Changes in the Distribution of Black and White Wealth since the US Civil War
Changes in the Distribution of Black and White Wealth since the US Civil War Open
The difference in the average wealth of Black and white Americans narrowed in the first century after the Civil War, but remained large and even widened again after 1980. Given high levels of wealth concentration both historically and toda…
View article: Replication Data for: 'Wealth of Two Nations: The U.S. Racial Wealth Gap, 1860-2020'
Replication Data for: 'Wealth of Two Nations: The U.S. Racial Wealth Gap, 1860-2020' Open
The data and programs replicating tables and figures from "Wealth of Two Nations: The U.S. Racial Wealth Gap, 1860-2020", by Derenoncourt, Kim, Kuhn, and Schularick are too large to host on the Harvard Dataverse. They are available for dow…
View article: Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability
Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability Open
Do periods of persistently loose monetary policy increase financial fragility and the likelihood of a financial crisis? This is a central question for policymakers, yet the literature does not provide systematic empirical evidence about th…
View article: Wealth and Its Distribution in Germany, 1895–2018
Wealth and Its Distribution in Germany, 1895–2018 Open
German history over the past 125 years has been turbulent. Marked by two world wars, revolutions and major regime changes, as well as a hyperinflation and three currency reforms, expropriations and territorial divisions, it provides unique…
View article: Wealth of Two Nations: The U.S. Racial Wealth Gap, 1860-2020
Wealth of Two Nations: The U.S. Racial Wealth Gap, 1860-2020 Open
The racial wealth gap is the largest of the economic disparities between Black and white Americans, with a white-to-Black per capita wealth ratio of 6 to 1.It is also among the most persistent.In this paper, we construct the first continuo…
View article: Wealth of Two Nations: The U.S. Racial Wealth Gap, 1860-2020
Wealth of Two Nations: The U.S. Racial Wealth Gap, 1860-2020 Open
The racial wealth gap is the largest of the economic disparities between Black and white Americans, with a white-to-Black per capita wealth ratio of 6 to 1.It is also among the most persistent.In this paper, we construct the first continuo…
View article: The macroeconomic impact of Trump
The macroeconomic impact of Trump Open
How much credit does Donald Trump deserve for the macroeconomic performance of the US economy? Growth and job creation have been robust during the first 2.5 years of his presidential term, but this does not prove that Trump made a differen…
View article: Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges
Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges Open
This paper reviews literature on the empirical relationship between vulnerabilities in the financial system and the macroeconomy, and how monetary policy affects that connection. Financial vulnerabilities build up over time, with both risk…
View article: Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy
Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy Open
What are the macroeconomic consequences of business credit booms? Are they as dangerous as household credit booms? If not, why not? We answer these questions by collecting data on nonfinancial business liabilities (primarily bank loans and…