Nick Gent
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View article: Real-time modelling of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England 2020-2023: a challenging data integration
Real-time modelling of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England 2020-2023: a challenging data integration Open
A central pillar of the UK's response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was the provision of up-to-the moment nowcasts and short term projections to monitor current trends in transmission and associated healthcare burden. Here we present a detail…
View article: Pediatric Hospitalizations and ICU Admissions Due to COVID-19 and Pediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome Temporally Associated With SARS-CoV-2 in England
Pediatric Hospitalizations and ICU Admissions Due to COVID-19 and Pediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome Temporally Associated With SARS-CoV-2 in England Open
Importance Investigating how the risk of serious illness after SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adolescents has changed as new variants have emerged is essential to inform public health interventions and clinical guidance. Objective To…
View article: Replacement dynamics and the pathogenesis of the Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2
Replacement dynamics and the pathogenesis of the Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 Open
New SARS-CoV-2 variants causing COVID-19 are a major risk to public health worldwide due to the potential for phenotypic change and increases in pathogenicity, transmissibility and/or vaccine escape. Recognising signatures of new variants …
View article: Risk of paediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome (PIMS-TS) during the SARS-CoV-2 alpha and delta variant waves: National observational and modelling study, 2020–21, England
Risk of paediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome (PIMS-TS) during the SARS-CoV-2 alpha and delta variant waves: National observational and modelling study, 2020–21, England Open
Objectives Paediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome (PIMS-TS) is a rare life-threatening complication that typically occurs several weeks after SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and young people (CYP). We used national and regional-leve…
COVID-19 deaths in children and young people in England, March 2020 to December 2021: An active prospective national surveillance study Open
Background Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are rare in children and young people (CYP). The high rates of asymptomatic and mild infections complicate assessment of cause of death in CYP. We assessed the cause of death in all CYP…
View article: Lateral flow test performance in children for SARS-CoV-2 using anterior nasal and buccal swabbing: sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values
Lateral flow test performance in children for SARS-CoV-2 using anterior nasal and buccal swabbing: sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values Open
Objective To determine if the sensitivity of the lateral flow test is dependent on the viral load and on the location of swabbing in the respiratory tract in children. Design Phase 1: Routinely performed reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) …
Respiratory syncytial virus-associated hospitalisation in children aged ≤5 years: a scoping review of literature from 2009 to 2021 Open
Introduction Following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in many countries, a surge in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalisations was reported, surpassing yearly trends pre-pandemic. The changes to RSV epidemiology may have unfor…
Mitigating isolation: further comparing the effect of LFD testing for early release from self-isolation for COVID-19 cases Open
In a recent paper, we described how lateral flow device (LFD) testing might be used to reduce the amount of excess time individuals spend in isolation following confirmation of a COVID-19 infection. Through the work presented here, we look…
Assessing the role of imported cases on the establishment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of concern in Bolton, UK Open
This paper presents a method used to rapidly assess the incursion and the establishment of community transmission of suspected SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Delta (lineage B.1.617.2) into the UK in April and May 2021. The method described …
Mitigating isolation: The use of rapid antigen testing to reduce the impact of self-isolation periods Open
Isolating, either enforced or self-guided, is a well-recognised and used technique in the limitation and reduction of disease spread. This usually balances the societal harm of disease transmission against the individual harm of being isol…
Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in England: the first wave Open
England has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with severe ‘lockdown’ mitigation measures now gradually being lifted. The real-time pandemic monitoring presented here has contributed to the evidence informing this pandemic m…
Outbreaks in care homes may lead to substantial disease burden if not mitigated Open
The number of COVID-19 outbreaks reported in UK care homes rose rapidly in early March of 2020. Owing to the increased co-morbidities and therefore worse COVID-19 outcomes for care home residents, it is important that we understand this in…
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infectivity by Viral Load, S Gene Variants and Demographic Factors, and the Utility of Lateral Flow Devices to Prevent Transmission Open
Background How severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infectivity varies with viral load is incompletely understood. Whether rapid point-of-care antigen lateral flow devices (LFDs) detect most potential transmission s…
Statistical Design and Analysis of Diagnostic Tests for Mutating Viruses Open
As the SARS-CoV-2 virus mutates, mutations harboured in patients become increasingly diverse. Patients classified into two strains may have overlapping non-variant-defining mutations. Mutation calling by sequencing is relative to a referen…
SARS-CoV-2 infectivity by viral load, S gene variants and demographic factors and the utility of lateral flow devices to prevent transmission Open
Background How SARS-CoV-2 infectivity varies with viral load is incompletely understood. Whether rapid point-of-care antigen lateral flow devices (LFDs) detect most potential transmission sources despite imperfect sensitivity is unknown. M…
View article: Comparing aerosol concentrations and particle size distributions generated by singing, speaking and breathing
Comparing aerosol concentrations and particle size distributions generated by singing, speaking and breathing Open
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has resulted in an unprecedented shutdown in social and economic activity, with the cultural sector particularly severely affected. Restrictions on musical performan…
View article: Performance characteristics of five immunoassays for SARS-CoV-2: a head-to-head benchmark comparison
Performance characteristics of five immunoassays for SARS-CoV-2: a head-to-head benchmark comparison Open
Public Health England and UK National Institute for Health Research.
Real-time Nowcasting and Forecasting of COVID-19 Dynamics in England: the first wave? Open
England has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with severe ‘lock-down’ mitigation measures now gradually being lifted. The real-time pandemic monitoring presented here has contributed to the evidence informing this pandemic …
View article: Comparing the Respirable Aerosol Concentrations and Particle Size Distributions Generated by Singing, Speaking and Breathing
Comparing the Respirable Aerosol Concentrations and Particle Size Distributions Generated by Singing, Speaking and Breathing Open
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has resulted in an unprecedented shutdown in social and economic activity with the cultural sector particularly severely affected. Restrictions on performance have a…
Rapid increase of Care Homes reporting outbreaks a sign of eventual substantial disease burden Open
Enclosed societies (i.e. locations that are connected to wider community only by subgroups of their population and that are dominated by within society transmission) have the potential, upon establishment of a respiratory disease, to suffe…
View article: A unified personal protective equipment ensemble for clinical response to possible high consequence infectious diseases: A consensus document on behalf of the HCID programme
A unified personal protective equipment ensemble for clinical response to possible high consequence infectious diseases: A consensus document on behalf of the HCID programme Open
•Potential safety issues have been identified with current PPE ensembles for HCID.•Our novel simulation model tests PPE for both bodily fluid and airborne pathogens.•A new consensus model of PPE for HCID is proposed, with supporting safety…