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Investigating historical trends in extreme rainfall and temperatures Open

Fatima Pillosu, Nigel Roberts, David A. Lavers · 2025

Extreme rainfall and heat extremes have far-reaching societal consequences, triggering catastrophic floods, flash floods, multi‑day heat waves, and long‑lasting droughts. This presentation will investigate historical trends in severe rainf…

Obtaining salient information from many forecasts Open

Nigel Roberts, Tim Hewson, Anca Brookshaw · 2025

Modern weather forecasting is moving towards ensemble prediction by default alongside the increased use of Machine Learning (ML) models and ensembles over a range of resolutions. From the user perspective, this will mean having to deal wit…

Quantifying uncertainty from the Extremes Digital Twin of Destination Earth Open

Balázs Szintai, Nigel Roberts, Anca Brookshaw · 2025

Within the Destination Earth initiative, the Extremes Digital Twin (DT) has been produced continuously at ECMWF since summer 2023. The Extremes DT is running at 4.4 km horizontal resolution every day starting at 00 UTC out to 5 days. Due t…

How bad is the rain? Applying the extreme rain multiplier globally and for climate monitoring activities Open

David A. Lavers, Gabriele Villarini, Hannah Cloke, A. J. Simmons, Nigel Roberts , et al. · 2025

A typical question posed following an extreme precipitation event is: How does this compare to past events? This question is being asked more frequently and is of importance to climate monitoring services, such as the Copernicus Climate Ch…

An Israeli-Palestinian Federation: An Alternative Approach to Peace Open

Riccardo Bocco, Nigel Roberts · 2025

Over a year since Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, led to the devastating ongoing war in Gaza, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict seems as far from resolution as it ever has been. This paper suggests a possible pathway towards end…

Part 2 – October 7, 2023 and the Gaza War: International Implications Open

Riccardo Bocco, Nigel Roberts · 2025

Appendix 1 | Co-sponsoring Institutions Open

Riccardo Bocco, Nigel Roberts · 2025

Appendix 4 | List of colleagues consulted on intermediate versions Open

Riccardo Bocco, Nigel Roberts · 2025

Part 5 – Turning the Concept into Reality: Seeking Acceptance Open

Riccardo Bocco, Nigel Roberts · 2025

Acknowledgments Open

Riccardo Bocco, Nigel Roberts · 2025

References Open

Riccardo Bocco, Nigel Roberts · 2025

Maps Open

Riccardo Bocco, Nigel Roberts · 2025

Part 3 – Unresolved Questions from Oslo Open

Riccardo Bocco, Nigel Roberts · 2025

Appendix 2 | The Project: Hope Across Borders - In the Other’s Shoes Open

Riccardo Bocco, Nigel Roberts · 2025

Foreword Open

Riccardo Bocco, Nigel Roberts · 2025

Executive Summary Open

Riccardo Bocco, Nigel Roberts · 2025

Appendix 3 | Meeting Agenda, 25-28 January 2024 Open

Riccardo Bocco, Nigel Roberts · 2025

Brief Summary Open

Riccardo Bocco, Nigel Roberts · 2025

Epigraphs Open

Riccardo Bocco, Nigel Roberts · 2025

Part 1 – The Failure of the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process, 1993-2024 Open

Riccardo Bocco, Nigel Roberts · 2025

Achieving Safely Managed Sanitation in Riverine and Island Communities in Sierra Leone Open

Jamie Myers, Ruhil Iyer, Irene Gai, Frederick Fabba, Nigel Roberts , et al. · 2024

It is estimated that over one million preventable deaths occur each year caused by diarrhoeal diseases due to unsafe sanitation, hygiene and drinking water. In Sierra Leone, access to sanitation is the 8th lowest in any country worldwide. …

The hectometric modelling challenge: Gaps in the current state of the art and ways forward towards the implementation of 100‐m scale weather and climate models Open

Humphrey Lean, Natalie Theeuwes, Michael Baldauf, Jan Barkmeijer, Geoffrey Bessardon , et al. · 2024

For a number of years research has been carried out in several centres which has demonstrated the potential benefits of 100‐m scale models for a range of meteorological phenomena. More recently, some meteorological services have started to…

Combining ensembles using a new synoptic-scale curvature diagnostic Open

Nigel Roberts, Tim Hewson · 2024

ECMWF is now running its extended-range 101-member ensemble, with an approximate grid spacing of 36 km, every day from 00UTC, out to 46 days ahead. This is in conjunction with the 9 km medium-range 51-member ensemble that is run 4 times a …

Impact-based forecasting for convective rainfall: a new approach combining rainfall ensembles and hazard impacts Open

Michael Cranston, Jamie Rae, Steven J. Cole, Seonaid R. Anderson, Gemma Nash , et al. · 2024

PREDICTOR (PREDICTing flooding impacts from cOnvective Rainfall) has been developed to improve the approach to forecasting the impacts of surface water flooding. PREDICTOR is a next generation decision-support tool that utilises the latest…

Adaptive selection of members for convective-permitting regional ensemble prediction over the western Maritime Continent Open

Kuldeep Sharma, Joshua Chun Kwang Lee, Aurore Porson, Krishnamoorthy Chandramouli, Nigel Roberts , et al. · 2023

A common issue faced by the downscaled regional ensemble prediction systems is the under-dispersiveness of the ensemble forecasts, often attributed to the lack of spread under the initial conditions from the global ensemble. In this study,…

Projected increase in windstorm severity and contribution from sting jets over the UK and Ireland Open

Colin Manning, Elizabeth Kendon, Hayley J. Fowler, Nigel Roberts · 2023

Extratropical windstorms can lead to extreme impacts in the UK; however, future changes in windstorm frequency and intensity are uncertain due to natural variability and lack of model consensus. Further uncertainty arises due to unresolved…

IMPROVER: the new probabilistic post processing system at the UK Met Office: BAMS paper Data Open

Nigel Roberts, Ben Ayliffe, G. R. Evans, Stephen Moseley, Fiona Rust · 2023

© Crown Copyright, Met Office This is the data associated with the figures in the IMPROVER BAMS paper 2023: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0273.1. Gridded data is in CF-NetCDF with reasonably self explanatory metadata, other data such a…

IMPROVER: the new probabilistic post processing system at the UK Met Office: BAMS paper Data Open

Nigel Roberts, Ben Ayliffe, G. R. Evans, Stephen Moseley, Fiona Rust · 2023

© Crown Copyright, Met Office This is the data associated with the figures in the IMPROVER BAMS paper 2023: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0273.1. Gridded data is in CF-NetCDF with reasonably self explanatory metadata, other data such a…

Improving and understanding probabilistic precipitation forecasts using machine learning Open

Hannah Brown, Stephen Haddad, Aaron Hopkinson, Nigel Roberts, Steven Ramsdale , et al. · 2023

Uncertainty in numerical weather prediction (NWP) arises due to the initial state not being fully known and physical processes not being perfectly represented within the models. Precipitation is challenging to predict because it is non-lin…

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Open

Mary Kaldor, Mike Fane, Erica Gaston, Stefanie Glinski, Thomas Gutersohn , et al. · 2022

his book is the result of a long journey enabled and shaped by many people.Most importantly, I want to thank each person in Afghanistan who took the time to talk to me and, through sharing their views, influenced my way of thinking and all…

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