Oğuzhan Alagöz
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View article: A Scoping Review on Calibration Methods for Cancer Simulation Models
A Scoping Review on Calibration Methods for Cancer Simulation Models Open
Introduction. Calibration, a critical step in the development of simulation models, involves adjusting unobservable parameters to ensure that the outcomes of the model closely align with observed target data. This process is particularly v…
View article: Comparing Canada's OncoSim-Breast model with the United States' Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) breast cancer models
Comparing Canada's OncoSim-Breast model with the United States' Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) breast cancer models Open
The OncoSim-Breast model, developed by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer and Statistics Canada, represents breast cancer-related events in the Canadian female population. This study aims to compare OncoSim-Breast microsimulation mode…
View article: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Breast Cancer Mortality in the US: Estimates From Collaborative Simulation Modeling
Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Breast Cancer Mortality in the US: Estimates From Collaborative Simulation Modeling Open
BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted breast cancer control through short-term declines in screening and delays in diagnosis and treatments. We projected the impact of COVID-19 on future breast cancer m…
View article: Optimizing Face Validity and Clinical Relevance of a Mathematical Population Cancer Epidemiology Model Using a Novel Advisory Group Approach
Optimizing Face Validity and Clinical Relevance of a Mathematical Population Cancer Epidemiology Model Using a Novel Advisory Group Approach Open
Background Cancer simulation models can answer research and policy questions when prospective evidence is incomplete or not feasible. However, such models require incorporating unmeasureable inputs for which there is often not strong evide…
View article: Mathematical Modeling to Address Questions in Breast Cancer Screening: An Overview of the Breast Cancer Models of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network
Mathematical Modeling to Address Questions in Breast Cancer Screening: An Overview of the Breast Cancer Models of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network Open
The National Cancer Institute–funded Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) breast cancer mathematical models have been increasingly utilized by policymakers to address breast cancer screening policy decisions and i…
View article: A Review on Calibration Methods of Cancer Simulation Models
A Review on Calibration Methods of Cancer Simulation Models Open
Calibration, a critical step in the development of simulation models, involves adjusting unobservable parameters to ensure that the outcomes of the model closely align with observed target data. This process is particularly vital in cancer…
View article: Breast Cancer Screening Using Mammography, Digital Breast Tomosynthesis, and Magnetic Resonance Imaging by Breast Density
Breast Cancer Screening Using Mammography, Digital Breast Tomosynthesis, and Magnetic Resonance Imaging by Breast Density Open
Importance Information on long-term benefits and harms of screening with digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) with or without supplemental breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is needed for clinical and policy discussions, particularly fo…
View article: Examining breast cancer screening recommendations in Canada: The projected resource impact of screening among women aged 40–49
Examining breast cancer screening recommendations in Canada: The projected resource impact of screening among women aged 40–49 Open
Objective To quantify the resource use of revising breast cancer screening guidelines to include average-risk women aged 40–49 years across Canada from 2024 to 2043 using a validated microsimulation model. Setting OncoSim-Breast microsimul…
View article: Impact of racial disparities in follow-up and quality of colonoscopy on colorectal cancer outcomes
Impact of racial disparities in follow-up and quality of colonoscopy on colorectal cancer outcomes Open
Background The benefits of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs rely on completing follow-up colonoscopy when a noncolonoscopy test is abnormal and on quality of colonoscopy screening as measured by the endoscopists’ adenoma detectio…
View article: Predictive Modeling of Hypertension-Related Postpartum Readmission: Retrospective Cohort Analysis
Predictive Modeling of Hypertension-Related Postpartum Readmission: Retrospective Cohort Analysis Open
Background Hypertension is the most common reason for postpartum hospital readmission. Better prediction of postpartum readmission will improve the health care of patients. These models will allow better use of resources and decrease healt…
View article: Analysis of Breast Cancer Mortality in the US—1975 to 2019
Analysis of Breast Cancer Mortality in the US—1975 to 2019 Open
Importance Breast cancer mortality in the US declined between 1975 and 2019. The association of changes in metastatic breast cancer treatment with improved breast cancer mortality is unclear. Objective To simulate the relative associations…
View article: Modeling Thyroid Cancer Epidemiology in the United States Using Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Microsimulation Model
Modeling Thyroid Cancer Epidemiology in the United States Using Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Microsimulation Model Open
View article: Calibration and Validation of the Colorectal Cancer and Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) Microsimulation Model Using Deep Neural Networks
Calibration and Validation of the Colorectal Cancer and Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) Microsimulation Model Using Deep Neural Networks Open
Objectives Machine learning (ML)–based emulators improve the calibration of decision-analytical models, but their performance in complex microsimulation models is yet to be determined. Methods We demonstrated the use of an ML-based emulato…
View article: Predictive Modeling of Hypertension-Related Postpartum Readmission: Retrospective Cohort Analysis (Preprint)
Predictive Modeling of Hypertension-Related Postpartum Readmission: Retrospective Cohort Analysis (Preprint) Open
BACKGROUND Hypertension is the most common reason for postpartum hospital readmission. Better prediction of postpartum readmission will improve the health care of patients. These models will allow better use of resources and decrease heal…
View article: Validating agent-based simulation model of hospital-associated Clostridioides difficile infection using primary hospital data
Validating agent-based simulation model of hospital-associated Clostridioides difficile infection using primary hospital data Open
As agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used for modeling infectious diseases, model validation is becoming more crucial. In this study, we present an alternate approach to validating hospital ABMs that focuses on replicating hospita…
View article: Supplemental Tables S1-2 from The Contribution of Mammography Screening to Breast Cancer Incidence Trends in the United States: An Updated Age–Period–Cohort Model
Supplemental Tables S1-2 from The Contribution of Mammography Screening to Breast Cancer Incidence Trends in the United States: An Updated Age–Period–Cohort Model Open
Supplemental Tables S1-2. Supplemental Table S1. Case definitionsa for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive breast cancer cases included in the age-period-cohort model, SEER Program and Connecticut Tumor Registry, 1935-2010. Supple…
View article: Data from The Contribution of Mammography Screening to Breast Cancer Incidence Trends in the United States: An Updated Age–Period–Cohort Model
Data from The Contribution of Mammography Screening to Breast Cancer Incidence Trends in the United States: An Updated Age–Period–Cohort Model Open
Background: The impact of screening mammography on breast cancer incidence is difficult to disentangle from cohort- and age-related effects on incidence.Methods: We developed an age–period–cohort model of ductal carcinoma …
View article: Supplemental Tables S1-2 from The Contribution of Mammography Screening to Breast Cancer Incidence Trends in the United States: An Updated Age–Period–Cohort Model
Supplemental Tables S1-2 from The Contribution of Mammography Screening to Breast Cancer Incidence Trends in the United States: An Updated Age–Period–Cohort Model Open
Supplemental Tables S1-2. Supplemental Table S1. Case definitionsa for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive breast cancer cases included in the age-period-cohort model, SEER Program and Connecticut Tumor Registry, 1935-2010. Supple…
View article: Supplemental Movie from The Contribution of Mammography Screening to Breast Cancer Incidence Trends in the United States: An Updated Age–Period–Cohort Model
Supplemental Movie from The Contribution of Mammography Screening to Breast Cancer Incidence Trends in the United States: An Updated Age–Period–Cohort Model Open
Supplemental Movie. Observed and modeled overall breast cancer incidence rates for each of the 9 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registries, 1935-2010 by age and period (year of diagnosis). Includes rates per 100,000 wome…
View article: Data from The Contribution of Mammography Screening to Breast Cancer Incidence Trends in the United States: An Updated Age–Period–Cohort Model
Data from The Contribution of Mammography Screening to Breast Cancer Incidence Trends in the United States: An Updated Age–Period–Cohort Model Open
Background: The impact of screening mammography on breast cancer incidence is difficult to disentangle from cohort- and age-related effects on incidence.Methods: We developed an age–period–cohort model of ductal carcinoma …
View article: Supplemental Movie from The Contribution of Mammography Screening to Breast Cancer Incidence Trends in the United States: An Updated Age–Period–Cohort Model
Supplemental Movie from The Contribution of Mammography Screening to Breast Cancer Incidence Trends in the United States: An Updated Age–Period–Cohort Model Open
Supplemental Movie. Observed and modeled overall breast cancer incidence rates for each of the 9 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registries, 1935-2010 by age and period (year of diagnosis). Includes rates per 100,000 wome…
View article: Breast cancer risk for women with diabetes and the impact of metformin: A meta‐analysis
Breast cancer risk for women with diabetes and the impact of metformin: A meta‐analysis Open
Background Diabetes mellitus has been associated with increased breast cancer (BC) risk; however, the magnitude of this effect is uncertain. This study focused on BC risk for women with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods Two separate…
View article: Diagnostic Accuracy of Fine-Needle Biopsy in the Detection of Thyroid Malignancy
Diagnostic Accuracy of Fine-Needle Biopsy in the Detection of Thyroid Malignancy Open
Importance Fine-needle biopsy (FNB) became a critical part of thyroid nodule evaluation in the 1970s. It is not clear how diagnostic accuracy of FNB has changed over time. Objective To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis estimati…
View article: Team Science Principles Enhance Cancer Care Delivery Quality Improvement: Interdisciplinary Implementation of Breast Cancer Screening Shared Decision Making
Team Science Principles Enhance Cancer Care Delivery Quality Improvement: Interdisciplinary Implementation of Breast Cancer Screening Shared Decision Making Open
PURPOSE: Implementing shared decision making (SDM), recommended in screening mammography by national guidelines for women age 40-49 years, faces challenges that innovations in quality improvement and team science (TS) are poised to address…
View article: Prevalence of Subclinical Papillary Thyroid Cancer by Age: Meta-analysis of Autopsy Studies
Prevalence of Subclinical Papillary Thyroid Cancer by Age: Meta-analysis of Autopsy Studies Open
Context It is not known how underlying subclinical papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) differs by age. This meta-analysis of autopsy studies investigates how subclinical PTC prevalence changes over the lifetime. Methods We searched PubMed, Emba…
View article: Optimal breast cancer risk reduction policies tailored to personal risk level
Optimal breast cancer risk reduction policies tailored to personal risk level Open
View article: Optimizing Patient Transitions to Skilled Nursing Facilities
Optimizing Patient Transitions to Skilled Nursing Facilities Open
Hospital inpatient care costs is the largest component of health care expenditures in the US. At the same time, the number of non-hospital rehabilitative settings, such as skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), has increased. Lower costs and i…
View article: Breast Cancer Screening Strategies for Women With <i>ATM, CHEK2</i>, and <i>PALB2</i> Pathogenic Variants
Breast Cancer Screening Strategies for Women With <i>ATM, CHEK2</i>, and <i>PALB2</i> Pathogenic Variants Open
This analysis suggests that annual MRI screening starting at 30 to 35 years followed by annual MRI and mammography at 40 years may reduce breast cancer mortality by more than 50% for women with ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2 pathogenic variants. In…
View article: A new perspective on breast cancer diagnostic guidelines to reduce overdiagnosis
A new perspective on breast cancer diagnostic guidelines to reduce overdiagnosis Open
Overdiagnosis of breast cancer, defined as diagnosing a cancer that would otherwise not cause symptoms or death in a patient's lifetime, costs U.S. health care system over $1.2 billion annually. Overdiagnosis rates, estimated to be around …
View article: A risk‐based framework for assessing real‐time lung cancer screening eligibility that incorporates life expectancy and past screening findings
A risk‐based framework for assessing real‐time lung cancer screening eligibility that incorporates life expectancy and past screening findings Open
Background Current lung cancer risk‐based screening approaches use a single risk‐threshold, disregard life‐expectancy, and ignore past screening findings. We address these limitations with a comprehensive analytical framework, the individu…