Otilia Boldea
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View article: Counterfactual evaluation of elementary and secondary school policies in the COVID-19 pandemic
Counterfactual evaluation of elementary and secondary school policies in the COVID-19 pandemic Open
Understanding the role of elementary and secondary schools in SARS-CoV-2 transmission is essential for designing effective public health policies. We developed a stochastic age-stratified transmission model, fitted to Dutch epidemiological…
View article: Retrospective evaluation of school-related measures on pre-vaccination transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2
Retrospective evaluation of school-related measures on pre-vaccination transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Open
Schools are important settings for respiratory virus transmission and a major focus of pandemic control measures in the absence of effective pharmaceutical interventions. During the COVID-19 pandemic, decisions regarding school closures an…
View article: Testing for multiple change-points in macroeconometrics: an empirical guide and recent developments
Testing for multiple change-points in macroeconometrics: an empirical guide and recent developments Open
View article: Medical Risk Classification For Severe COVID-19 Based On Chronic Medical Conditions: A Comparative Analysis
Medical Risk Classification For Severe COVID-19 Based On Chronic Medical Conditions: A Comparative Analysis Open
Background The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control lists medical conditions conferring high- or moderate-risk for severe COVID-19. Individual European countries also developed risk classifications to guide COVID-19 vaccinati…
View article: Efficient two-sample instrumental variable estimators with change points and near-weak identification
Efficient two-sample instrumental variable estimators with change points and near-weak identification Open
We consider estimation and inference in a linear model with endogenous regressors where the parameters of interest change across two samples. If the first-stage is common, we show how to use this information to obtain more efficient two-sa…
View article: Age-specific transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 during the first 2 years of the pandemic
Age-specific transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 during the first 2 years of the pandemic Open
During its first 2 years, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic manifested as multiple waves shaped by complex interactions between variants of concern, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the immunological landscape of the population. Understanding h…
View article: Efficient Two-Sample Instrumental Variable Estimators with Change Points and Near-Weak Identification
Efficient Two-Sample Instrumental Variable Estimators with Change Points and Near-Weak Identification Open
View article: Disentangling the effect of measures, variants, and vaccines on SARS-CoV-2 infections in England: a dynamic intensity model
Disentangling the effect of measures, variants, and vaccines on SARS-CoV-2 infections in England: a dynamic intensity model Open
Summary In this paper, we estimate the path of daily SARS-CoV-2 infections in England from the beginning of the pandemic until the end of 2021. We employ a dynamic intensity model, where the mean intensity conditional on the past depends b…
View article: Age-specific transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 during the first two years of the pandemic
Age-specific transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 during the first two years of the pandemic Open
During its first two years, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic manifested as multiple waves shaped by complex interactions between variants of concern, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the immunological landscape of the population. Understanding…
View article: Testing for a Threshold in Models with Endogenous Regressors
Testing for a Threshold in Models with Endogenous Regressors Open
We show by simulation that the test for an unknown threshold in models with endogenous regressors - proposed in Caner and Hansen (2004) - can exhibit severe size distortions both in small and in moderately large samples, pertinent to empir…
View article: Disentangling the effect of measures, variants and vaccines on SARS-CoV-2 Infections in England: A dynamic intensity model
Disentangling the effect of measures, variants and vaccines on SARS-CoV-2 Infections in England: A dynamic intensity model Open
In this paper, we estimate the path of daily SARS-CoV-2 infections in England from the beginning of the pandemic until the end of 2021. We employ a dynamic intensity model, where the mean intensity conditional on the past depends both on p…
View article: Bootstrapping structural change tests
Bootstrapping structural change tests Open
View article: Testing for a Threshold in Models with Endogenous Regressors
Testing for a Threshold in Models with Endogenous Regressors Open
View article: Bootstrapping Structural Change Tests
Bootstrapping Structural Change Tests Open
This paper analyses the use of bootstrap methods to test for parameter change in linear models estimated via Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS). Two types of test are considered: one where the null hypothesis is of no change and the alternativ…
View article: Change Point Estimation in Panel Data with Time-Varying Individual Effects
Change Point Estimation in Panel Data with Time-Varying Individual Effects Open
This paper proposes a method for estimating multiple change points in panel data models with unobserved individual effects via ordinary least-squares (OLS). Typically, in this setting, the OLS slope estimators are inconsistent due to the u…
View article: Structural Break Tests Robust to Regression Misspecification
Structural Break Tests Robust to Regression Misspecification Open
Structural break tests for regression models are sensitive to model misspecification. We show—analytically and through simulations—that the sup Wald test for breaks in the conditional mean and variance of a time series process exhibits sev…
View article: Structural Break Tests Robust to Regression Misspecification
Structural Break Tests Robust to Regression Misspecification Open
View article: Testing for a Threshold in Models with Endogenous Regressors
Testing for a Threshold in Models with Endogenous Regressors Open