Pascal Yiou
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View article: Using artificial intelligence to identify CMIP6 models from daily SLP maps
Using artificial intelligence to identify CMIP6 models from daily SLP maps Open
The chaotic nature of the climate has motivated the production of large ensembles of simulations. To exploit those ensembles for impact or attribution studies, models are either considered separately or pooled together to increase the stat…
View article: Intensity and dynamics of extreme cold spells of the 21st century in France from CMIP6 data
Intensity and dynamics of extreme cold spells of the 21st century in France from CMIP6 data Open
Cold extremes significantly impact society, causing excess mortality, strain on healthcare systems, and increased demand on the energy system. With global warming, these extremes are expected to decrease, as observed in various indicators.…
View article: ClimarisQ: What can we learn by playing a serious game for climate education?
ClimarisQ: What can we learn by playing a serious game for climate education? Open
Climate change education faces the twin challenges of conveying complex scientific concepts and inspiring urgent action. ClimarisQ is a web and smartphone-based serious game developed by the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL) to address …
View article: Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogue method
Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogue method Open
Extreme event attribution methodologies have been proposed to estimate the impacts of anthropogenic global warming on observed climatological and meteorological extremes. The classical risk-based approach uses extreme value theory (EVT) to…
View article: Unravelling the wind impact of clusters of storms, a case study over the French insurer Generali
Unravelling the wind impact of clusters of storms, a case study over the French insurer Generali Open
Winter windstorms cause extensive damage to infrastructure and represent the most significant natural hazard for Generali France in terms of insured losses. This study presents a method to systematically link physical storm events with obs…
View article: Evolution of the Dynamics of Centennial Hot Summers in Western Europe With Climate Change
Evolution of the Dynamics of Centennial Hot Summers in Western Europe With Climate Change Open
The intensity and frequency of heat extremes is expected to increase with climate change. However, answering questions about their physical mechanisms and how they may evolve in the future is challenging because of their rareness. Here we …
View article: Statistical and Dynamical Aspects of Extremely Hot Summers in Western Europe Sampled with a Rare Event Algorithm
Statistical and Dynamical Aspects of Extremely Hot Summers in Western Europe Sampled with a Rare Event Algorithm Open
The study of the statistical and dynamical characteristics of extreme and very extreme events in the climate system is impaired by a strong undersampling issue. Because extreme events are rare, answering questions about the physical mechan…
View article: El Niño and droughts in Southeast Asia: A stochastic-chaotic modeling approach
El Niño and droughts in Southeast Asia: A stochastic-chaotic modeling approach Open
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly impacts global weather, with strong El Niño events often linked to prolonged dry conditions in Southeast Asia. While several high-impact El Niño events have coincided with prolonged dry…
View article: Using Artificial Intelligence to identify CMIP6 models from daily SLP maps
Using Artificial Intelligence to identify CMIP6 models from daily SLP maps Open
Large databases of climate model simulations are essential to sample climate variability and estimate how it can evolve in any future. The chaotic nature of climate has motivated the simulation of large ensembles of simulations, which samp…
View article: Dynamical evolution of extremely hot summers in Western Europe in response to climate change
Dynamical evolution of extremely hot summers in Western Europe in response to climate change Open
The study of the statistical and dynamical characteristics of extreme and very extreme events in the climate system is impaired by a strong under-sampling issue. Here we use a rare events algorithm to massively increase the number of extre…
View article: Analysis of the insurance impacts of storm clusters: a case study with Generali France
Analysis of the insurance impacts of storm clusters: a case study with Generali France Open
Clusters of storms are defined as sequences of multiple storms occurring within a short time frame and a limited spatial extent. In this study, storm clusters are identified using a Lagrangian approach combined with an absolute frequency m…
View article: Future changes in compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic
Future changes in compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic Open
The explosive development of extratropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers plays a crucial role in driving extreme weather in the mid-latitudes, such as compound windstorm–flood events. Although both explosive cyclones and atmospheric rive…
View article: Simulating record-shattering cold winters of the beginning of the 21st century in France
Simulating record-shattering cold winters of the beginning of the 21st century in France Open
Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe have huge societal impacts. Being able to simulate worst-case scenarios for such events for present and future climates is hence crucial for short- and long-term adaptation. In this paper, we are …
View article: Intensity and dynamics of extreme cold spells of the 21st century in France from CMIP6 data
Intensity and dynamics of extreme cold spells of the 21st century in France from CMIP6 data Open
Cold extremes significantly impact society, causing excess mortality, strain on healthcare systems, and increased demand on the energy system. With global warming, these extremes are expected to decrease, as observed in various indicators.…
View article: Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogues method
Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogues method Open
Extreme event attribution methodologies have been proposed to estimate the impacts of anthropogenic global warming on observed climatological and meteorological extremes. The classical risk-based approach uses Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to…
View article: Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events
Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events Open
Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms, and many others. Despite the intrinsic differences between th…
View article: How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation
How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation Open
Reaching a surface temperature of 50 °C in a heavily populated region, like Paris, would have devastating effects. Although such a high value seems far from the present-day record of 42.6 °C, its occurrence cannot be dismissed by the end o…
View article: ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate
ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate Open
Climate change is a global challenge with multiple far-reaching consequences, including the intensification and increased frequency of many extreme-weather events. In response to this pressing issue, we present ClimaMeter, a platform desig…
View article: Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?
Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change? Open
Central European winters have warmed markedly since the mid-20th century. Yet cold winters are still associated with severe societal impacts on energy systems, infrastructure, and public health. It is therefore crucial to anticipate storyl…
View article: Climate change fingerprint on the 2023 Emilia Romagna floods
Climate change fingerprint on the 2023 Emilia Romagna floods Open
The region of Emilia Romagna in northeastern Italy, with its capital in Bologna, experienced a sequence of flooding events on May 2nd, 10th, and 16th, 2023. These three events were linked to the passage of three extratropical cyclones, ide…
View article: Assessing changes in the intensity and dynamics of extreme cold spells in France from CMIP
Assessing changes in the intensity and dynamics of extreme cold spells in France from CMIP Open
Extreme cold winters have been projected to decrease in the future, although their impacts on society are still significant. The goal of this study is to assess whether climate change affects the atmospheric mechanisms leading to cold wint…
View article: Dynamics, Statistics, and Predictability of Rossby Waves, Heat Waves, and Spatially Compounding Extreme Events
Dynamics, Statistics, and Predictability of Rossby Waves, Heat Waves, and Spatially Compounding Extreme Events Open
International audience
View article: Future Changes of Compound Explosive Cyclones and Atmospheric Rivers in the North Atlantic
Future Changes of Compound Explosive Cyclones and Atmospheric Rivers in the North Atlantic Open
The explosive development of extratropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers play a crucial role in driving extreme weather in the mid-latitudes, such as compound windstorm-flood events. Although both explosive cyclones and atmospheric river…
View article: Comment on egusphere-2024-612
Comment on egusphere-2024-612 Open
Abstract. Extreme winter cold temperatures in Europe have huge societal impacts on society. Being able to simulate worst-case scenarios of such events for present and future climates is hence crucial for short and long-term adaptation. In …
View article: Improving subseasonal forecast of precipitation in Europe by combining a stochastic weather generator with dynamical models
Improving subseasonal forecast of precipitation in Europe by combining a stochastic weather generator with dynamical models Open
We propose a forecasting tool for precipitation based on analogues of circulation defined from 5‐day hindcasts and a stochastic weather generator that we call “HC–SWG.” In this study, we aim to improve the forecast of European precipitatio…
View article: A game to unfold decision risks under uncertain probabilities of extreme events
A game to unfold decision risks under uncertain probabilities of extreme events Open
Paper submitted to Oxford Open Climate Change