Patrick Minford
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A heterogeneous-agent Model of Growth and Inequality for the UK- Do Planning and Infrastructure matter? A Supplementary note Open
This paper builds on Yang et al. (Open Econ Rev 32(1):37–69, 2021) which analysed the effect of wealth inequality on UK economic growth in recent decades with a heterogeneous-agent growth model where agents can enhance individual productiv…
View article: UK monetary and fiscal policy since the great recession - an evaluation
UK monetary and fiscal policy since the great recession - an evaluation Open
This paper explores the economic impacts of the Bank of England's quantitative easing policy, implemented as a response to the global financial crisis. Using an open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, we demonstra…
Testing for Consumer Risk-Pooling in the Open Economy – further Results Open
In this supplement to Minford et al. Int J Financ Econ 26(2):19932021 (2021), we revisit the ‘puzzle’ in open economy studies that evidence of international risk-sharing is hardly seen despite active cross-country financial markets. We rea…
View article: The Role of Fiscal Policy — A Survey of Recent Empirical Findings
The Role of Fiscal Policy — A Survey of Recent Empirical Findings Open
DSGE models based on New Keynesian principles, which have been extended to allow for banking, the zero lower bound on interest rates (ZLB), and varying price duration, can account well for recent macroeconomic behavior across a variety of …
View article: Can Modern Monetary Theory fit the post‐Crisis US facts? Evidence from a full DSGE model
Can Modern Monetary Theory fit the post‐Crisis US facts? Evidence from a full DSGE model Open
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) claims that a monetarily sovereign government like the US is never confronted by a real budget constraint since it can always monetise any deficit by printing money; and this need not be inflationary since it c…
View article: Modeling the effects of Brexit on the British economy
Modeling the effects of Brexit on the British economy Open
We estimate the short run effects of Brexit border disruption on the UK economy. We estimate a structural VAR for the UK, where Brexit effects are identified by the dates of Brexit events, the referendum, and the exit from the single marke…
View article: Indirect Inference—A Methodological Essay on Its Role and Applications
Indirect Inference—A Methodological Essay on Its Role and Applications Open
In this short paper we review the intellectual history of indirect inference as a methodology in its progress from an informal method for evaluating early models of representative agents to formally testing DSGE models of \nthe economy; an…
View article: Indirect Inference and Small Sample Bias — Some Recent Results
Indirect Inference and Small Sample Bias — Some Recent Results Open
Macroeconomic researchers use a variety of estimators to parameterise their models empirically. One such is FIML; another is indirect inference (II). One form of indirect inference is ‘informal’ whereby data features are ‘targeted’ by the …
View article: Evaluation and indirect inference estimation of inattentive features in a New Keynesian framework
Evaluation and indirect inference estimation of inattentive features in a New Keynesian framework Open
We test the standard New Keynesian (NK) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with and without inattentiveness features, where inattentiveness is modeled either in the form of sticky information (SI) or imperfect information …
View article: The eurozone: What is to be done to maintain macro and financial stability?
The eurozone: What is to be done to maintain macro and financial stability? Open
The financial stability of the eurozone depends on its macroeconomic stability and vice versa. We construct a macro DSGE model of the eurozone and its two main regions, the North and the South, with the aim of matching the macro facts of t…
View article: Should Hong Kong switch to Taylor rule?—Evidence from DSGE model
Should Hong Kong switch to Taylor rule?—Evidence from DSGE model Open
This paper studies the economy of Hong Kong through the lens of a small open economy DSGE model with a currency board exchange rate commitment. It assumes flexible prices and a banking system that provides credit to entrepreneurial househo…
View article: The Macroeconomic Controversy Over Price Rigidity — How to Resolve it and How Bayesian Estimation has Led us Astray
The Macroeconomic Controversy Over Price Rigidity — How to Resolve it and How Bayesian Estimation has Led us Astray Open
Price rigidity plays a central role in macroeconomic models but remains controversial. Those espousing it look to Bayesian estimated models in support, while those assuming price flexibility largely impose it on their models. So controvers…
View article: North and South: A Regional Model of the UK
North and South: A Regional Model of the UK Open
We set up a two-region model to study the policy challenge of bringing the North’s income up to the level of the South in the UK. The model focuses on labour costs as the driver of output gains through the international competitiveness cha…
View article: Estimating macro models and the potentially misleading nature of Bayesian estimation
Estimating macro models and the potentially misleading nature of Bayesian estimation Open
We ask whether Bayesian estimation creates a potential estimation bias as compared with standard estimation techniques based on the data, such as maximum likelihood or indirect estimation. We investigate this with a Monte Carlo experiment …
View article: Introduction and summary
Introduction and summary Open
In this book, the themes of my earlier book, Should Britain Leave the EU? (Minford et al., 2015), are pulled together to discuss how we should follow up with post-Brexit policies, now that Brexit has finally taken place. ‘What should Brita…