Patrick Fève
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View article: Measuring business cycles using vars
Measuring business cycles using vars Open
We propose to measure business cycles using vector autoregressions (VARs). Our method builds on two insights: VARs automatically decompose the data into stable and unstable components, and variance-based shock identfication can extract mea…
View article: The Power of Persistence: How Demand Shocks and Monetary Policy Shape Macroeconomic Outcomes
The Power of Persistence: How Demand Shocks and Monetary Policy Shape Macroeconomic Outcomes Open
National audience
View article: Believe it or not, it’s all about Beliefs!
Believe it or not, it’s all about Beliefs! Open
This paper studies the impact of Higher Order Belief (HOB) shocks, representing shifts in agents’ beliefs about others’ beliefs, on macroeconomic outcomes. The dynamic causal effects of these shocks are identified by leveraging a combinati…
View article: Dynamic Identification in VARs
Dynamic Identification in VARs Open
Most macroeconomic models, both fully structural models as well as SVAR models, view economic outcomes as the product of a combination of endogenous and exogenous dynamic forces. In particular, the exogenous forces are generally modeled as…
View article: From buzz to bust: How fake news shapes the business cycle
From buzz to bust: How fake news shapes the business cycle Open
The threats that misinformation poses to politics and public health are well documented, but the macroeconomic effects of fake news remain largely unexplored. This column highlights insights from recent research on the impact of fake news …
View article: The Hammer and the Dance: Equilibrium and Optimal Policy during a Pandemic Crisis
The Hammer and the Dance: Equilibrium and Optimal Policy during a Pandemic Crisis Open
We develop a comprehensive framework for analyzing optimal economic policy during a pandemic crisis in a dynamic economic model that trades off pandemic-induced mortality costs against the adverse economic impact of policy interventions. W…
View article: Costly Default And Asymmetric Real Business Cycles
Costly Default And Asymmetric Real Business Cycles Open
We augment a simple Real Business Cycle model with financial intermediaries that may default on their liabilities and a financial friction generating social costs of default. We provide a closed-form solution for the general equilibrium of…
View article: Shadow Banking and the great recession : evidence from an estimated DSGE model
Shadow Banking and the great recession : evidence from an estimated DSGE model Open
We argue that shocks to credit supply by shadow and retail banks were key to understanding the behavior of the US economy during the Great Recession and the Slow Recovery. We base this result on an estimated DSGE model featuring a rich rep…
View article: The Horizontally S-Shaped Laffer Curve
The Horizontally S-Shaped Laffer Curve Open
In a neoclassical growth model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous, liquidity-constrained agents, the properties of the Laffer curve depend on whether debt or transfers are adjusted to balance the government budget constraint. The La…
View article: Data for: Noisy fiscal policy
Data for: Noisy fiscal policy Open
of associated article: This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a setting in which private agents receive noisy signals about future shocks to government expenditures. We show how to empirically identify the re…
View article: Persistent Government Spending and Fiscal Multipliers: the Investment-Channel
Persistent Government Spending and Fiscal Multipliers: the Investment-Channel Open
This paper inspects the mechanism shaping government spending multipliers in various smallscale DSGE setups with endogenous labor supply and capital accumulation. We analytically characterize the short-run investment multiplier, which in e…
View article: Noisy Fiscal Policy
Noisy Fiscal Policy Open
This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a setting in which private agents receive noisy signals about future shocks to government expenditures. We show how to empirically identify the relative weight of news a…
View article: When is Nonfundamentalness in VARs a Real Problem? An Application to News Shocks
When is Nonfundamentalness in VARs a Real Problem? An Application to News Shocks Open
When the VAR representation of a times series has a non-fundamental representation, standard SVAR techniques cannot be used to exactly identify the effects of structural shocks.This problem is know to potentially arise when one of the stru…