Chris Papageorgiou
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View article: Income Convergence or Divergence in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Shock?
Income Convergence or Divergence in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Shock? Open
The paper extends the work of Deaton ( 2021) by exploring the period of post-crisis recovery in 2021-2024.The paper documents per-capita income divergence during the period of post-shock recovery, with countries at the bottom of the income…
View article: Trade and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons from French Firms
Trade and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons from French Firms Open
This paper uses granular customs data from France to investigate propagation of the COVID-19 shock along the supply chains in 2020. It quantifies the effect of the COVID-19 shock on trade adjustment and identifies mitigating and amplifying…
View article: Preferences for Reforms: Endowments vs. Beliefs
Preferences for Reforms: Endowments vs. Beliefs Open
Are preferences for reforms driven by individuals' own endowments or beliefs?To address this question, we conducted a cross-country survey on people's opinions on employment protection legislation-an area where reform has proven to be diff…
View article: Monetary Policy Frameworks: An Index and New Evidence
Monetary Policy Frameworks: An Index and New Evidence Open
We provide a multidimensional characterization of monetary policy frameworks across three pillars: Independence and Accountability, Policy and Operational Strategy, and Communications (IAPOC).We construct the IAPOC index by analyzing centr…
View article: Policy Contagion: What Do We Learn from Financial Reforms?
Policy Contagion: What Do We Learn from Financial Reforms? Open
Using a novel database of domestic financial reforms in 90 countries over 1973-2014, we document that global financial liberalization followed an S-curve path: reforms were slow and gradual in early periods, accelerated during the 1990s, a…
View article: Policies in Hard Times: Assessing the Impact of Financial Crises on Structural Reforms
Policies in Hard Times: Assessing the Impact of Financial Crises on Structural Reforms Open
It is argued that crises open up a window of opportunity to implement policies that otherwise would not have the necessary political backing. We show that not only is the crises–reforms nexus unfounded in the data, but rather crises are as…
View article: Macroeconomic Research in Low-income Countries
Macroeconomic Research in Low-income Countries Open
Despite strong economic growth since 2000, many low-income countries (LICs) still face numerous macroeconomic challenges, even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the deceleration in real GDP growth during the 2008 global financial cri…
View article: Will the AI Revolution Cause a Great Divergence
Will the AI Revolution Cause a Great Divergence Open
This paper considers the implications for developing countries of a new wave of technological change that substitutes pervasively for labor. It makes simple and plausible assumptions: the AI revolution can be modeled as an increase in prod…
View article: Will the AI Revolution Cause a Great Divergence?
Will the AI Revolution Cause a Great Divergence? Open
This paper considers the implications for developing countries of a new wave of technological change that substitutes pervasively for labor. It makes simple and plausible assumptions: the AI revolution can be modeled as an increase in prod…
View article: What Remains of Cross-Country Convergence?
What Remains of Cross-Country Convergence? Open
We examine the record of cross-country growth over the past fifty years and ask if developing countries have made progress on closing the income gap between their per capita incomes and those in the advanced economies. We conclude that, as…
View article: Structural Reforms and Elections: Evidence from a World-Wide New Dataset
Structural Reforms and Elections: Evidence from a World-Wide New Dataset Open
We assemble two unique databases.One is on reforms in domestic finance, external finance, trade, product markets and labor markets, which covers 90 advanced and developing economies from 1973 to 2014.The other is on electoral results and t…
View article: Structural Reforms and Elections: Evidence from a World-Wide New Dataset
Structural Reforms and Elections: Evidence from a World-Wide New Dataset Open
We assemble two unique databases. One is on reforms in domestic finance, external finance, trade, product markets and labor markets, which covers 90 advanced and developing economies from 1973 to 2014. The other is on electoral results and…
View article: Quality Upgrading and Export Performance in the Asian Growth Miracle
Quality Upgrading and Export Performance in the Asian Growth Miracle Open
We explore the contribution of product-quality upgrading to the export performance of six fast-growing Asian economies: China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand. We focus on measuring the impact of quality upgrading on …
View article: On the Substitution of Private and Public Capital in Production
On the Substitution of Private and Public Capital in Production Open
Most macroeconomic models assume that aggregate output is generated by a specification for the production function with total physical capital as a key input. Implicitly this assumes that private and public capital stocks are perfect subst…
View article: Macroeconomic Outcomes in Disaster-Prone Countries
Macroeconomic Outcomes in Disaster-Prone Countries Open
Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we study the channels through which natural disaster shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes and welfare in disaster-prone countries. We solve the model using Taylor projection, a solution…
View article: The Armistice of the Sexes: Gender Complementarities in the Production Function
The Armistice of the Sexes: Gender Complementarities in the Production Function Open
Macroeconomic models have largely ignored the importance of gender diversity by assuming that male and female workers are perfectly substitutable in the aggregate production function. Whether this assumption is valid is an empirical questi…
View article: Rethinking Development Policy: Deindustrialization, Servicification and Structural Transformation
Rethinking Development Policy: Deindustrialization, Servicification and Structural Transformation Open
This paper takes a fresh look at the current theories of structural transformation and the role of private and public fundamentals in the process. It summarizes some representative past and current experiences of various countries vis-a-vi…
View article: The Public and Private Marginal Product of Capital
The Public and Private Marginal Product of Capital Open
Why does capital not flow to developing countries as predicted by the neoclassical model? What are the direction and degree of capital misallocation across nations? We revisit these questions by removing public capital from total capital t…