Peter Tillmann
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View article: Disagreement About Fiscal Policy
Disagreement About Fiscal Policy Open
Politicians disagree about fiscal policy. This disagreement should have economic effects beyond the effects of government spending and taxation. We use the full set of speeches in the German Bundestag since 1960 and apply state‐of‐the art …
View article: Debating the Bundeswehr
Debating the Bundeswehr Open
We use Natural Language Processing methods to analyze the part of the debates in the Bundestag, the German parliament, about the German military (Bundeswehr). Estimated local projections show that an increase in Bundeswehr‐related fiscal s…
View article: Digital, nachhaltig, drittmittelstark: Die Ausschreibungen von VWL-Professuren in Deutschland
Digital, nachhaltig, drittmittelstark: Die Ausschreibungen von VWL-Professuren in Deutschland Open
Zusammenfassung Kathrin Stock, Peter Tillmann und Andreas Walter untersuchen den Markt für volkswirtschaftliche Professorinnen und Professoren an Universitäten in Deutschland zwischen 2014 und 2022. Dabei stützen sich die Autoren auf die T…
View article: Monetary policy spillovers: Is this time different?
Monetary policy spillovers: Is this time different? Open
View article: Not all ECB meetings are created equal 
Not all ECB meetings are created equal Open
View article: Gains from Gunboats: U.S. Aircraft Carriers and Financial Markets in East Asia
Gains from Gunboats: U.S. Aircraft Carriers and Financial Markets in East Asia Open
View article: Monetary Policy Shocks and the Fiscal Talk in the Bundestag
Monetary Policy Shocks and the Fiscal Talk in the Bundestag Open
View article: Disagreement about Fiscal Policy *
Disagreement about Fiscal Policy * Open
View article: The Emotions of Monetary Policy
The Emotions of Monetary Policy Open
View article: Inflation Expectations and a Conservative Central Banker: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Inflation Expectations and a Conservative Central Banker: Evidence from a Natural Experiment Open
View article: Geopolitics in the Boardroom: How German Managers Respond to the War in Ukraine
Geopolitics in the Boardroom: How German Managers Respond to the War in Ukraine Open
View article: Household expectations and dissent among policymakers
Household expectations and dissent among policymakers Open
View article: Debating the Bundeswehr
Debating the Bundeswehr Open
View article: The FOMC Attention Cycle *
The FOMC Attention Cycle * Open
View article: The FOMC Attention Cycle *
The FOMC Attention Cycle * Open
View article: Fiscal policy in the Bundestag: Textual analysis and macroeconomic effects
Fiscal policy in the Bundestag: Textual analysis and macroeconomic effects Open
Fiscal policy is made in parliaments. We go to the roots of changes of fiscal policy in Germany and use a novel data set on all parliamentary speeches in the Bundestag from 1960 to 2021. We propose an embedding-based approach, which allows…
View article: Remittance Inflows and State-Dependent Monetary Policy Transmission in Developing Countries
Remittance Inflows and State-Dependent Monetary Policy Transmission in Developing Countries Open
Remittance inflows from overseas workers are an important source of for- eign funding for developing and emerging economies. The literature is in- conclusive about the cyclical nature of remittance inflows. To the extent remittances are pr…
View article: Trump Pressuring the Fed
Trump Pressuring the Fed Open
After appointing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, President Trump steadily put pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. We show that, on average, a statement from Trump led to lower long-term interest rates, consistent with expectations …
View article: Leading Standards and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Loan Survey Releases
Leading Standards and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Loan Survey Releases Open
The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) is widely considered a good indicator of banks' lending conditions. We use the change in corporate bond spreads on SLOOS release days to instrument changes in lending standards. A series…
View article: Macroeconomic Surprises and the Demand for Information about Monetary Policy
Macroeconomic Surprises and the Demand for Information about Monetary Policy Open
This paper studies the demand for information about monetary policy, while the literature on central bank transparency and communication typically studies the supply of information by the central bank or the reception of the information pr…
View article: Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Response of the Yield Curve to Policy Shocks
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Response of the Yield Curve to Policy Shocks Open
This paper studies the non-linear response of the term structure of interest rates to monetary policy shocks. We show that uncertainty about monetary policy changes the way the term structure responds to monetary policy. A policy tightenin…
View article: Monetary Policy on Twitter and its Effect on Asset Prices: Evidence from Computational Text Analysis
Monetary Policy on Twitter and its Effect on Asset Prices: Evidence from Computational Text Analysis Open
In this paper we dissect the public debate about the future course of monetary policy and trace the effects of selected topics of this discourse on U.S. asset prices. We focus on the \taper tantrum" episode in 2013, a period with large rev…
View article: ECB vs Bundesbank: Diverging Tones and policy Effectiveness
ECB vs Bundesbank: Diverging Tones and policy Effectiveness Open
The present paper studies the consequences of conflicting narratives for the transmission of monetary policy shocks. We focus on conflict between the presidents of the ECB and the Bundesbank, the main protagonists of monetary policy in the…
View article: News Shocks Spillovers: How the Euro Area Responds to Expected Fed Policy
News Shocks Spillovers: How the Euro Area Responds to Expected Fed Policy Open
Monetary policy increasingly relies on steering market expectations about future policy. This paper identi_es a monetary policy news shock based on a VAR model. A monetary news shock is equivalent to new information about the Fed's future …
View article: The aggregate and country-specific effectiveness of ECB policy: evidence from an external instruments (VAR) approach
The aggregate and country-specific effectiveness of ECB policy: evidence from an external instruments (VAR) approach Open
This paper studies the transmission of ECB monetary policy, both at the aggregate euro area and the country level. We estimate a VAR model for the euro area in which monetary policy shocks are identified using an external instrument that r…
View article: COVID-19 and Financial Markets: A Panel Analysis for European Countries
COVID-19 and Financial Markets: A Panel Analysis for European Countries Open
In order to fight the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, monetary and fiscal policy announced a large variety of support packages which are often unprecedented in size. In this paper, we provide an empirical analysis of the re…
View article: The asymmetric effect of supply chain pressure on inflation
The asymmetric effect of supply chain pressure on inflation Open
We estimate the effect of global supply chain disruptions on inflation for a panel of 28 European countries. Adverse shocks have a stronger and more persistent effect than favorable shocks.
View article: Quantitative Easing and Tapering Uncertainty: Evidence from Twitter
Quantitative Easing and Tapering Uncertainty: Evidence from Twitter Open
In this paper we analyze the extent to which peoples' changing beliefs about the timing of the exit from Quantitative Easing (\tapering") impact asset prices. To quantify beliefs of market participants, we use data from Twitter, the social…
View article: Using forecasts to uncover the loss function of FOMC members
Using forecasts to uncover the loss function of FOMC members Open
We revisit the sources of the bias in Federal Reserve forecasts and assess whether a precautionary motive can explain the forecast bias. In contrast to the existing literature, we use forecasts submitted by individual FOMC members to uncov…
View article: Capital Inflows and Asset Prices: Evidence from Emerging Asia
Capital Inflows and Asset Prices: Evidence from Emerging Asia Open
The withdrawal of foreign capital from emerging countries at the height of the recent financial crisis and its quick return sparked a debate about the impact of capital flow surges on asset markets. This paper addresses the response of pro…